WinterWolf

I already said that yesterday, after somebody said it will last 24 hrs. 8-12 hrs if it comes at all.

If it lasts half that long we’ll be doing good. I’ll put money that this will be a 12 hour deal at most, if it even comes to fruition? Always move quicker than we think. No way 24 hours long imo.

The big solution is always exhilarating to see...but when your area is in the crushed zone at 5 days out..ya that’s not always the best thing, cuz you know it’s not gonna hold that look for 5 days.

I understand..it's all good.

A tad west of the BM works perfectly for my locale, and Bergs as well....far Western CT and Mass then under LI is better for them. I was speaking for my area is what I meant.

Well to be fair...those 940's and 950's were not believable at all imo...and a 965 or 970 mb low is no weak storm by any stretch either...and much more realistic.

Could be anything. Could be a complete Miss. Could be a weak POS with all these shortwaves all over and nothing congeals? Could be, Could be. Could be? I love how the East crowd automatically think it's gonna be east for easterners. If this Phases strong and Earlier...it'll be at the BM or a tad west of that I bet and a powerhouse. Obviously if it phases late then its off to the east, or a complete miss too. With all those S/W's in the flow...this has eons to go before we know anything of significance.

Seems to still do it at times. Any one of these SW's can mess up this whole set up...and the final outcome could be nothing like what we have seen so far. This may potentially turn out to be nothing like what we've been seeing so far. This is so far from being figured out...??

Too many pigs fighting in the same feed-sack. All those SW's have to sort themselves out, and hopefully not rob all the energy available for our potential system?

Bottom line here, at least we have something to track and watch that has "Some Potential" for SNE currently. It's a complicated/convoluted set up with all the Short-Waves floating around, and how all that comes to together/gets resolved will obviously determine what ultimately happens with this potential system, and how it affects the area. Late Blooming is definitely a possibility, but I wouldn't be worrying about that 6 days out...to much time left to go, where all options are still on the table. No option is more likely than any other at this lead time imo.

I don’t think we’re even close to knowing what it will look like at this stage.

Lol..it’s 7 days out, anything is on the table! Go with the ensembles at this point as Scott said.

Brings nothing to the boards...what a waste!

Ahh, it did this a week and a half ago too. Looked weenieish and then sh*t the bed big time. I’m not buying it yet!

I was more talking the snowfall aspect with regard to peak..for us in SNE it’s late Jan through mid February I believe.

But the fact that we are approaching peak winter climo...that in and of itself is a help imo. Nothing like the peak of a season to deliver some goods imo. We’ll see soon enough.

Will said the EPS Has significantly improved overnight....so I would imagine it’s not showing nearly what the GEFS is. But as we said, the 11-15 has gone Poof as we close in, so take that for what it’s worth...which is not much. But at least they looked better, that’s always a little better than the other way around.

Not that the icon is that great, but it’s not all that far out in fantasy land at 7 days. A long time for sure in model land, but it’s not 10+ days anymore either... lol trying to find the positives here I guess...??

Or be a Cutter...you forgot that option- not surprisingly! Superstorm James in full force lately. That’s what happens when you’re snow starved I guess.

What was it like at 12z? Massive shift in a good way? Or bad? Probably bad right? It’s 9 days out so doesn’t matter anyway...

Was up in N. Maine last weekend sledding..was frigid but a great time. And it was good to get away from “everything!” So I hear what you’re saying.

O I get it..thanks for clarifying though. Certainly don’t need a perfect pattern here for a good storm. Was just replying to Rays post about Presidents’ Day..which is a month away. Hoping we see some action with at least a couple winter events before we lose another full month, was more my point.

I agree there is definitely plenty of time...lots of winter to go. But if we Punt a Full 4 weeks with nothing but a few sloppy inches, normal snow is gonna be tough to get to. Unless of course we score a Bomb at some point, and then it's a different story. But that seems a long shot currently.?

Dam, I hope something pops before then...that's pretty much a full Month from now lol. We need to start seeing some snow in the next week to hope to make it to normal this season..at least for a lot of us. Sitting at 17.2" so far this season..long way to go for normal snow here.

It's just eye candy right now...nothing more. But, the take away is that both major models have now shown a bomb in that 2/2-2/3 time frame. Doesn't mean much but that a system could be looming in and around that time frame. I certainly wouldn't be optimistic about though...not the way things cave in this season so far.