WinterWolf

This ultimate solution may end up completely different, and in a slightly later time frame than what we have been thinking all along...I mean with all these Vorts all over the place the models don't know which vort to key on and how they interact yet with each other, if at all??

Could happen? But those are never likely.

LOL...Ya Sure. Hope you're right?

But that 5H may be modeled incorrect as well?

LMAO...this is just too funny, But So True.

I actually don't. But I hope you're feeling is more accurate than mine lol. Be good to get a decent Warning event for the forum.

Yes...This is very true. EPS went all in too so that gave some more credence to the OP's look. But it Flipped/Flopped on us...dam.

I know his drill now...just conversing and commenting on the modeling. I have my ideas and he has his(changeable)ideas. Sure would be nice to see 12z come back some and start heading definitively toward something impactful for most of the forum.

If the trend is our friend, then yes there is a tad more time. But once it deviates in the negative direction....she "Gone" pal. And If 12z doesn't improve at all, pack it in unless you're Jimmy's next door Neighbor to the East of him.

I agree. 12z will seal most everybody's fate imo. Far SE Mass as Will said might be able to hang on a lil longer, but this 12z is the deciding hour on if this is going to make the move into something, or just continue the BS of this Dreaded Season to date.

But when I hedged that at 12z yesterday, the Euro would close the door for good on this POS, it actually improved. And then it really got everybody back in the game again at 18Z. Say whatever you want...from Vorts all over the place, to it comes out 4 times a day now, etc etc...it's lost it's Mojo from the good ol days. When it would latch on before, it was steadfast and you knew you had something to be interested in. Now it's a flip flopper like the rest.

Wow..euro used to never do crap like this. What the heck is up/happened with that model? I guess Berg won’t have to wear the Maga hat to work on Monday after all.

It’ll help, but it All depends on the track Jim...you know that. If it Tracks over your head it won’t matter.

It’s all in fun..no harm intended. Nothing is a lock this season. let’s see what 0z has in store for us?

Tip? Tip is that you? All kidding aside...nice post. Yours was very understandable lol.

Ya if this 0z run of the Euro looks similar to this...fire one off Bob.

Miller B here now...instead of the original Miller A idea...?

Man that Euro 18z run is worlds apart at 500 from that 18z GFS. This might not be dead just yet.

Good Post. I agree. Just be nice if this could come together to give a decent Warning event to the area. Very discouraging to winter enthusiasts when everything continually trends in a negative direction all the time. Doesn't need to be an 18" er or anything..but a solid Warning event would be some fun for a change. But it'll do whatever it wants so I get it.

Just trying to have a little fun....we've done this before on here in the past. I feel it's going to show a miss OTS/weaker set up over all. That's my feeling on it.

Well you were on the rains to quebec the other day, and Toss every model train as well. Now you flipped and flopped like the fish out of water. I agree that lots of these trend away at this midrange point only to come back again with a vengeance. But this has other things working against it too...like too many S/W's in the flow that are mucking up the waters so to speak. And a ridge that's flattening now it seems...these are distinct issues that can work against this coming back. It's not over, but it's not looking promising or encouraging either at 12z. I'm sick of 1-3" of slop...I'm with Ray, if it aint gonna be a Warning situation, let's have it be sunny and 45-50!

You're correct. But it just has that "Feel" unfortunately.....the feeling of the season has showed it's hand....and it can't be changed. I know, it's a stupid idea, but it has that feel. I hope I'm wrong. You like to Hedge Berg...what's your call for the upcoming 12z Euro? I think it will be a Whiff....more east and progressive due to the western ridge flattening out...not good signs.

Aaaa, it's trending in the wrong direction too...it's just still Hung over from the bender it went on last night. It'll be a whiff on the next run. And the Euro will close this out for sure in an hour with a whiff/Miss. Man, the winter that just can't deliver rolls on....

What ever analogy we want to use....too many turds in the bowl; or too many pigs in the feed sack, it's all the same. Too much energy/SW's that never ever come together like they should for a strong system by us. I said this yesterday when Dendrite posted the picture of all the SW's all over the place, and he said good luck trying to figure this out. Those rarely deliver imo. The Euro will seal the deal in 90 minutes or so, it'll be east/a whiff for sure, and that's gonna be that. Sure, Yes this can turn around like boxing day did on a dime; but the Tenor so far is for disappointment this winter...and this is following right along with that idea...to a "T." If this indeed does go down the toilet like its looking like currrently. I'm ready for Spring around here for sure.

When does any potential major system not go through this east jog Whiff, just after everything shifted west the run before. It's all fruitless to think either way on what modeling is showing currently. I realize that Persistent forecasting is not prudent...but the Tenor of the winter has been up and in...or a miss. This winter doesn't seem to want to produce much since the 1st of Dec., so I'm thinking a miss if we don't get at least a Partial Phaze of some sort. But it's still too early to say one way or the other...and that's just where we are currently. Lot's of S/W's running around..lots yet to resolve. Everything later tmrw or Thursday could go back tucky and west...or be miss altogether. Long way to go with this one.