BlueRidgeFolklore

The WPC discussion is interesting: ”Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon, especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage” Are they insinuating that the energy currently in Canada doesn’t reflect model data up to this point and should correct?

Yea still a lot of mixing but improved overall. Especially out west.

I think the CAD will trend stronger the closer we get.

00z looks much improved!

GFS is showing more separation with that Baja low. Interesting to see where it lands.

While I agree, this seems like one of those Arctic air masses that can show more suppression later on. We’ll know more soon but this is one of those setups where it could trend south.

I know it's the long range NAM but did anyone see the nice little thump the 18z showed for Friday?

Happy to have ya! We’re a fairly level headed crew most days

I am not certain it's a north trend versus an expanding precip shield. As Eric Webb alluded to elsewhere, this is a massive arctic airmass we're dealing with and most models, especially the ICON, are likely underestimating the CAD.

When was the last time we saw a snow mean that high? 2017?

My goodness what a run!

I feel like we’ve seen this movie a dozen times. This will correct NW over the coming days. If you’re in the Southern Mountains from Highlands to Saluda, get ready.

Every community in the French Broad River valley is in a shitty place for snow. Haha. At the very least, Henderson County performs better with CAD events than it’s NWF counterparts.

I know Grand Highlands very well. I have family that live on Bearwallow, I used to ride my four wheeler through GH when it was a cow farm. Of course that was years ago! I wasn't far from Montclair back then, I was in PG County, living on Andrews AFB. We were at 80-90" as well. Best winter I've ever lived through!

Welcome! Sounds like you're near the Bat Cave / Bearwallow Mountain area. Bearwallow has been known for some good winter weather from time to time. Funny you mentioned the Mid-Atlantic forum, that was my first introduction to AmericanWx as well. Spent the 2010 Snowmageddon/Snowpocalypse blizzards in the DMV when I was in the Navy. Fun times! Welcome to the mountains, hopefully you brought the winter weather mojo with you!

The WPC just released their 3 month forecast for winter and it doesn't look good for us. https://x.com/NWSGSP/status/1978840883098202131 However, just out of curiosity and went back and looked at their forecast for the 2013-2014 since that seems to be the winter that is getting the most comparisons and the similarities are striking. Below is also how that winter faired for us.

It's coming! Of note, one of the analog years I keep seeing being mentioned for this upcoming winter is 2013-2014. That ended up being a good winter for us. KAVL temperatures for that October were relatively warm with mid-70's all the way into late October. Just something to keep an eye on.

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html "Siberian snow cover got off to a quick start in September and that has continued into October (see Figure ii), however it seems to me the rapid advance of late September has slowed a bit in October. In fact in a bit f an unusual twist the surface temperatures have been more impressive this month (as in cold) than the snow cover, typically it is the reversed. Above normal Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) favors a weak polar vortex this winter and more widespread severe winter weather across the NH"

That's in line with climo, I'm taking it to the bank.

I've been here a long time and we've regularly dealt with tropical storm systems. Helene is and hopefully will always be the outlier. I can think back to Bill, Frances, Ivan, Arlene, Dennis, Fred, etc, and never do I remember waking up to such flooding and devastation before the system makes landfall in the Gulf. That's the one image that will always stand out to me with Helene, is the sheer amount of flooding we were already dealing with. Just an unfathomable set of circumstances.

Let's Go!!!!

It's September 4th, who's kicking off the new thread?

Wait until tomorrow!

Looks like we might be in for a brief taste of fall. https://www.facebook.com/share/1FD9w4ijqg/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Definitely. Woke up to a hellacious storm in Henderson this morning.