shaggy
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Everything posted by shaggy
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Yeah hugo redux. If the euro holds it path and gfs its and they blend the 2 then sc/NC are in trouble.
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I'm actually getting the feeling this one might just plow west right into SC and never make that turn. There is so e troughiness that could weaken the ridge but will it be enough?
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94l sure is a surprise so maybe she will weaken that ridge.
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7 days away so no worries yet. Got a loooooooong time to go before the details get settled out.
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Yeah that would devastate Wilmington and myrtle beach but would be a miss here in greenville. Too far south moving the wrong direction. Now only 5 more days until we actually know more about the reality of the modeled death ridge.
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What the models keep saying will happen and what actually is happening don't seem to match up to well. No model even hinted at a cat 4 and she is just out there doing what she wants. If that ridge is as strong as modeled you would have to see a sharp left turn and stay that way for a while to get it to the east coast.
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GFS is mid atlantic porn for those guys.
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Or the subsidence around the storm would bake us with bright blue skies and temps in the 90's. That's the way it was the day after fran hit.
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Needed this to stay weak and south through the first several days and instead it has become a hurricane. This one is not likely going to be any sort of problem for the east coast if these trends continue. We needed a weak storm to have it threaten the east coast.
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With the euro caving last night to a full on recurve I think it's time to start looking at the trailing system that is starting out much further south.
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Big storm over my area last night with a ton of lightning and right at 3 inches imby.
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Euro and ukmet both show more westward track with florence while gfs is a clear recurve.
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06Z GFS is further southwest with Florence again compared to the 00z. Add the huge shift west from the euro overnight and keep those trends going and we will at least have something to track in the long range.
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Both agree any cape verde systems look like fish systems at the moment. There is some sniffing around the idea of something around the Bahamas but nothing too organized.
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Have you had a chance to see the Doppler stuff from hurricane Harvey. They got great images of vortices inside the eyewall and the streaks that you are referring to. They were discussing this along with showing the images on TWC and it was pretty crazy how these vorts ramped up to tornado like speeds and caused major damage in those streaks.
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No reason to look at anything beyond the models showing some agreement at a system or 2 getting going in the tropics. This season has been lackluster and to just have a system on a model is good for now.
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Models finally starting to hint at some development down the road.
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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
shaggy replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Sure its early to call it a dud but we don't even have any fantasy storms to track. Conditions just aren't favorable at this time. All we've had is mid latitude sub tropical garbage with the exception of chris. -
Usually I figure at sunset storms will fade and die with loss of heating. This year it gets darkand I'm expecting storms at any minute.
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radar is popping with numerous showers and storms over the central coastal plains again. I've had more night time storms this year than I can ever remember
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Watched a bolt hit the trees about 300yds away from me a little while ago. Been dumping rain and new storms are starting to train over west central Pitt county headed this way.
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Me and my dad went offshore fishing on Aug 2nd out of morehead city. It was a horrible day weather wise. They were calling for 2 to 4 but we ended up 4 to 6 with occasional 8 footers. Beat the hell out of us because it wasn't like we had swells we had slop. Big mounds of water with no real organized swell. In total 73 people got onboard and at one point on my side of the boat there were only 6 people fishing. I didn't get seasick but my dad did for his first time ever and he had been out numerous times before.
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Got back from vacation Saturday and since then I'm at 2.9 inches. Today's 70% has been reduced to 30%. I need some dry weather I'm pushing 20 inches over the last 6 weeks or so.
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The fact the GFS even has this in the west pac is amazing and its actually looking to head towards Japan as a threat. Of course its the 384 GFS but the potential is there for a very long tracking hurricane with this one.
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We went ahead and canceled our kitty hawk trip. No way I'm going in the water with the rip current risks and it's not worth the money if we can't get in the ocean.
