shaggy

She needs to turn wnw now to make landfall just north of ilm.

If recon is finding pressure drops then I would expect at least maintaining or slight strengthening.

Nightmare scenario for forecasting . Like you said a shift of 25 to 50 miles north will change the wind forecast for everyone in the central coastal plains to the piedmont.

The eye is contracting now so it should be stronger again at 5pm.

On this approach angle and slow crawl, the rivers inland will see hellacious surges. When the Pamlico starts to narrow from 4 miles wide to 2 miles wide over just a few miles the water will get piled up quickly. Places deeper inland like Chocowinity, Washington, Belhaven will see some of the worst surges.

So the timing in the turn is crucial for us interior eastern nc guys. That trough is any slower weakening the ridge and it gets even 30 to 50 miles further north then that's gonna give us a little worse weather. Obviously any faster and spares us from any significant weather. I question a models stall and turn and it could quite easy be earlier or later so its gonna boil down to nowcasting when that exact point is when it turns.

Not that I'm wishing anything bad on anybody else but if we weren't gonna see strong winds in interior coastal plains of NC and all we were gonna get is 20 inches of rain then I'm glad it makes the turn and goes west. Hopefully it will weaken rapidly just off the coast keeping just a small part of NC in the cat 3 winds.

Nightmare approach angle. A small shift 20 miles north or south changes landfall point considerably. Shift it 20 miles north and it comes ion over bogue banks or south and puts wilmington more in danger. Thats one wobble either direction away from significant differences in track. As it stands the center on that track would be at best 80 miles to my south so I might get some gusts to top end TS strength. Any north of track motion puts the center much closer to me which is why the angle matters so much here.

Until nhc breaks from their track reasoning then they are who we need to listen to. I can tell you over the decades of tracking hurricanes I have said many times "they have no choice but to move landfall" and more times than not if they stick to their guns inside this range they have knowledge we dont. Could they shift the track? Absolutely but there's still models over towards lookout too so my guess is small adjustments from here on out. Also even a trochodial wobble could change landfall 10 to 15 miles with the angle of approach.

Trying to pin down a stall is hard. I remember watching Dennis approach in 1999 and he blew past the turn plot in the NHC track. He got 30 to 40 miles north and I was thinking man he is gonna keep going and then he just stopped and turned. It doesn't sound like much but 30 to 40 miles makes a big difference with Florence.

us inland guys needed that more like just north jacksonville. Thats too far southwest to get me hurricane force winds.Would be devastating for most of the beaches in NC.

Hazel went from NC to Canada in roughly 18 hours. Still not sure what to expect here in Greenville. This slow down is what gets me. The models shifting to a strong left hook as well could really reduce my impacts. If it slows way down right off shore and takes 20 hours to get to us then we will see much less wind. If it comes ashore and gets inland by 20-30 and is only 30-50 miles south of me then starts creeping then my winds would be much higher. This slow down really has screwed with the forecast. Why couldn't this one just kept speed and blasted through instead of lingering for days. Hope the models can switch back to a steady NW movement. I remember with Mathew in this range they are started showing that crazy loop off the SE coast and then dropped it.

Its sort of hard to sit here and fathom what we could be facing. Possibility of feet of rain and hurricane force gusts from Raleigh to the coast? No way that can happen right?

So last year Irma was as big and bad of a hurricane we had seen in many many years. Would the Florence threat be considered greater now? Cat 4 winds and surge over a much more populated area with exceptional rainfall and inland flooding.

My nephew is at coastal Carolina and wanted to ride it out. He is likely on his way to my house for the storm. Which may not be the smartest since we are also in the path just much further inland

Starting to catch on to the ukie, fv3,hmon tracks you think? No matter which track it looks like NCs gonna have what's likely to be its worst natural disaster ever.

Wonder what the furthest north cat 5 has ever been recorded? Not saying she gets there but man she is bombing out. If she expands her wind field the surge will be the worst ever recorded for NC. Depending on stall location somewhere on the inner banks could also set some records.

So do we think this will be a blend of the models and come in around Topsail or Jacksonville. Looking great on sat images and starting to speed up it looks like.

Seems they weaken it pretty quickly. My expectations of hurricane force winds have gone down quite a bit over in Greenville with the angle of landfall and rapid weakening.

I'd get the earlier flight. Models are pretty bullish and they aren't changing. Doesnt mean they cant or wont but you better be safe and get in early.

This is my point and click. Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%

Gfs back to a landfall and less of a stall. Moves it to around Washington,NC and then pulls it north into Virginia. Still a long storm but not as much rain deep inland. So we have a 5 day landfall consensus between myrtle beach and hatters which is both unnerving and remarkable. Plenty of time to change though once the full data gets in the modeling.

People need to remember that she should be a big cat 4 for a few days before landfall. So even if she weakens down to high end 3 at landfall she will still be carrying a big surge especially if she has a big wind field. Lookout down to landfall would see a tremendous surge. Neuse river and the pamlico will be affected as wel.

Wpc discussion sounds like they are gaining confidence in a landfall.

I just get the feeling this thing is just gonna plow wnw right into SC and never make a big enough turn as its modeled right now. If it landfalls south of Jacksonville moving wnw this will spare a large part of eastern NC but really increase the risk for central and western nc. Really need that GIV up and flying missions to get the data into the models.