shaggy

I know us NC guys are focusing on what we may see because of how close this is on the heels of florence. The real story is the likelihood of hurricane force gusts through most of southern Georgia and catastrophic winds in Florida. Gonna be millions and millions of people out of power for a very long time.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isnt this a 20mb drop since the 5am update that had him at 943?

The eye really clearing out and expanding now and i bet this makes a run at cat 5. We've seen the MB go from 943 to 931 in just the last couple hours. I really hate it for those people who stayed behind thinking this would be low end cat 3. This is a nightmare scenario thats been discussed before. A storm that RI as it hits land and goes from bad to holy hell bad just prior to landfall preventing evacs.

No Maria hit PR and then missed the east coast.

This is a much bigger concern for you Florida and Georgia guys but the concern this far north is the wet ground from Florence (even though theres been a lot of drying) could mean any weakened root systems could be in jeopardy if winds get too high. So while we are not expecting nearly the weather y'all could be in for the concern is anything over 50mph in gusts could down already weakened trees here in SC/NC.

I know theres huge spread in track along the path due to speed among the models. The 4 day and 5 day plots are 656 miles apart so that would put forward speed at 27.3mph.

Someof our Florida and Georgia members should see some bad weather. For us SC/NC folks it needs to be hauling butt and stronger than forecast to bring us any wind. Quite frankly i dont want to see any rain until thanksgiving.

gfs would not be welcomed. No wind just rain so a boring system over an area that needs no more rain for the next few weeks to finish drying out. The mosquitoes are hell here right now already.

Models hunting at some development soon. Fv3 most aggressive.

The humidity this year has been so much worse than I ever remember. Could be I'm getting older but usually by this time at work where I have no AC I am seeing cool mornings and long pants. This year I'm sweating my ass off everyday with ridiculous humidity. Just make it stop already.

That's just amazing. No other way to describe that.

Next sty in the making out there in the wpac. Looks great on sat already.

Over 4300 houses and business were damaged and destroyed in New bern due to surge and wind. That is about as astonishing a number as one could conceive for a small town like new bern.

That's a good thing correct? Tired of the rain and we aren't even flooding like those south of us.

Anderson cooper has now been caught in that trap as well. Pics of him "standing" in waste high water but his crew on the road while he is down in a ditch. Disgraceful when so many people are dealing with the real life threatening issues they face to have these idiots sitting on the outskirts of the disaster taking it.

Yeah we cant rival Harvey because we don't t have the population and major cities. Swansboro already was at 30 inches as of noon and it's been raining there all day. It will be hard to get 50 inches bit i could see 40. Storm surges were remarkable and I'd hate to see their historical importance sort of ignored.

The rain and continued TS conditions haven't allowed for a helicopter flyby of those barrier islands. Reports of surges as high as 14+ feet are circulating for parts of onslow bay. There's more of this story to be told as far as surges go. Some of the inner banks saw surges that nobody even imagined could happen. Almost 7 feet in belhaven and that's nearly double what most people ever recall. I'm in greenville way away from the coast and the tar river ran backwards and we had a 4 foot storm surge here. Lots of this story is still to be discovered.

Rumor is they are closing I95 at SC and Virginia borders to all incoming traffic except for relief efforts.

This was after the worst winds had hit. They were around 4-7AM. This was squall that hit a little later and gusted to maybe 40-45mph. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYI6Vz5VzgU

Anyone else seen the pics of Buxton on the sound side where all the water was blown as far as the eye could see. Can't seem to find it now.

The town of bath yesterday supposedly rose another 6 to 8 feet after this picture.

Never though if be sitting here with a eye over Wilmington and not being worried it was headed north bit SOUTH. Take the radar in for minute and realize you are watching something that has never happened in recorded history.

That's not "just" north of New Bern. That's on the Pamlico river system instead of the Neuse. Have a guy on another forum in Bath saying his dock is under 9 feet of water. Go to river and lakes page from MHX and go as far inland as my town of greenville and the tar river has seen 4-5 foot rises from the surge and we are way inland. There will be record storm surges from this hurricane in isolated locations.

Problem is she has consistently been on the very northern edge of the guidance and damn near left the cone yesterday. I posted their disco about continuing it NW today due to the "well established" ridge. She may putthe brakes on and go due wnw right now but she hasn't done it yet and each hour that she moves NW puts her having to make a sharper turn. This could have large implications into central and eastern NC.

She still has the gulfstream over the next 6-12 hours per the 11am disco and some models showed her strengthening during that crossing. This is also VERY interesting part of the disco to me. The subtropical ridge to the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday