shaggy
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Everything posted by shaggy
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Yeah snows picked up quite a bit here over the last 15 minutes. Really coming down at a decent clip but surface temp is still 36 so no sticking around. Like I said this was never my storm so anything I see is just a bonus.
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Still all snow here in greenville. Heavier returns just to my south so I'm just hoping for a burst of big fat flakes. I was only expecting an inch so anything falling this early in December is a bonus for me.
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Now snowing in the coastal plains at Greenville.
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MHX is dangling a carrot for us folks just east of I95. Either way I'm expecting little to nothing but its possible this could be a couple inches higher in totals if these models they list are correct. ...High pressure to the north will strengthen tonight, and help funnel some colder air into NC. This will coincide with heavier precip moving into, and over the whole area from tonight through most of Sunday. This combination will allow rain to change to snow early Sunday morning across the western portion of the coastal plain. It is becoming more likely that snow will accumulate up to a couple inches in this area which includes the cities of Kinston, Greenville, and Williamston. Right now, expect mostly 1-2 inches of accumulation, however if these locations stay colder for longer, as indicated in the latest ECMWF, NSSL WRF, and SPC HREF, up to 4 or 5 inches could fall over portions of these counties. We will initiate a winter weather advisory for these areas, and reevaluate the latest model trends through the day today. As the low and mid levels warm above freezing during the early afternoon, the snow or rain/snow mix will turn to rain.
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First time I remember seeing that type of snow totals down to the sounds and down towards new bern. Probably wont happe but it's enough to keep me intrigued.
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Seems expanded east towards the coast also doesnt it?
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This is really the only model showing me getting more than anything other than some onset stuff before going to all rain. I'm in western pitt county in the 5 inch zone but not far from the 11 inches in Wilson county. In no way do i expect this to be correct but its something that will tarnish the Fv3 when it takes over. Its snowfall outputs will forever be questioned if its wrong. We will no longer be getting nam'd but Fv3'd!!
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This has been a good storm for me to track. Never was in the game for anything so any frozen precip I might see is a bonus and if it busts it can only bust to the up side which we all know doesn't ever happen east of RDU anymore.
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Living east of 95 it as been a problem in almost every storm we've had here. Only 1 or 2 storms do I ever remember remaining all snow.
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The FV3 is going to be put to the test big time with this system. It has been so persistent with totals its almost crazy. A lot of people looking at those numbers are expecting those numbers and could be highly disappointed if it isn't right.
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That's a horrible map for me in Pitt county lol. Literally snow over my house and rain just a few miles away. Even verbatim I'm right on the line and I suspect I'm getting my usual 33 and rain.
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I gave up on this a while back. I've got nothing to lose its gonna rain unless the storm trends colder. I'm keeping one eye on it but really rooting for you guys out west.
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I cant lose in this setup. Best place to be really. I'm all rain unless it trends south and colder. If it doesnt then nothing changes for me and I stay with my expected rain. Much rather be in this position than one where I'm expecting some insane totals only to get screwed like we did 2 years ago.
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It has continued to trend to the south and now looks to make a more sizable impact on the Philippines.
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Well next to worse case scenario for Saipan. They at least got the calm of the eye for a little bit. Worst case would have been in the eyewall for the entire time.
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It would be nice for Saipan if this westward motion were to continue for a few hours as that would certainly spare them the core but if it "wobbles" back north much at all then they could get the eyewall. Gonna be a very close call for them. Just an incredible looking storm right now.
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Looks like Saipan is going to take one bad hit. I'm sure their building codes are very strong but this is a very powerful storm.
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What a buzzsaw this one is turning out to be.
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Cloud tops are cooling rapidly again. If she is to make cat 5 the window if time is narrowing.
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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
shaggy replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Tropical Headquarters
When you look at the amount of territory Leslie covered it's pretty awesome. She covered some ground out there.
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I would think the timing would have to be perfect for an object to get stuck in a crack in a tree flying by at 140+mph.
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The hrrr did a horrible job for my neck of the woods. Barely gusted to 40 when it was showing we should have had 55 to 65. Guess it all depending on the mechanism for bringing the gusts down.
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I'm supposed to work 12 hours tonight but if we really start to see this band form and we really might see gusts to 50-65mph then i'll likely call out. Not gonna leave my wife and 2 yr old home by themselves. tough call for me to make.
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couple videos show some very serious winds and the damage looks pretty significant in parts of the panhandle. Still have no idea what to expect here. Models suggest big winds in the 55-70 range but extreme solutions almost never come through for us.
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The eye is still kicking ass on sat loops and hasn't buckled yet. Looks like forward speed maybe be bumping up like anticipated.
