The 4 Seasons

Good thing Kevins sleepin' thats all ima say.

I just broke my neck...call 911

What in gods name...

We're breakin' out all the weird ones tonight..we're the IBM and RPM

depends..if it's north korea or south.

Yes. Jan 23rd 2016. 10%/90% the day before from the NWS

some people never learn, i dont know why anyone looks at let alone in the 60-84 range. maybe inside 24 then ok fine

Fun fact, he rode the Navy model one time on air for Mar 4-6 2001 when it was the only model showing virtually no snow and was progressive. I remember verbatim he said "it just spins up a couple inches and scoots outta here fast"

hey this is family friendly forum!

This storm is not like Jan 16 but the divergence and spread amongst EPS members remind me of that time 24-36 hrs before the event. And we have a lot longer to go than 24 hours.

This. Couldn't have said it better. People who write this off, one way or the other are completely ridiculous.

tbh looks more like van gogh to me

Right.

what site is that?

This is how the weenies read the AFDs 1/26 00Z guidance continues to boost confidence that we`re in store for a high impact winter storm in southern New England on Saturday. The ECMWF guidance is holding steady and all global guidance in agreement that some locations will experience a significant snowfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding. For those that have been following along, I know you`ve heard it repeated to death, but the key message continues to be the same: guidance is trending favorably for a big storm, but the exact track remains uncertain. This track is what will tell us exactly where the greatest snow, wind, and coastal flooding concerns are. The origin of this storm is a broad 500 mb trough that digs into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday night into Saturday. Two shortwaves within the broader flow, one northern and one southern stream may phase with each other as they move east. The ECMWF continues to favor a phasing solution leading to a stronger mid level low which cuts off more quickly compared to the GFS which keeps these features more removed and leads to a low that deepens more slowly. Either way, there is a great deal of confidence that this trough will generate a surface low off the Carolina coast that will rapidly intensify as it moves up to New England. Guidance indicates potential for this storm to undergo bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours. This creates a very tight pressure gradient, meaning strong, potentially damaging winds will accompany the snow. Bufkit soundings indicate potential for gusts to as much as 70 mph for the Cape and islands during the peak on Saturday. However, again the placement of heaviest winds, whether or not we deal with a rain/snow line, and extent of coastal flooding will be more clear as we approach and get a grasp of the track. Current ensemble guidance indicates a majority of the low centers passing in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark. If this comes to pass we`ll be dealing with heavy snow over southeast MA, strong winds, and potential for white out conditions. 00Z EPS percentage possibility of a foot or more of snow continues to place a 60-70% bullseye over southeast Massachusetts. All jokes aside, its good read but nothing most of us don't know already.

It's mid afternoon.

Right, oh, btw, happy Jan 26th, 2015, anniversary. Enjoy.

Similar gradient from the 00Z run.

We'll take it, 12Z with new upper air data will be much more important than these off hour runs anyway.

6Z GFS marginally better than 00Z.

The NAM is just about guaranteed to show a monster hit for all of SNE and near complete whiff in the next 84 hours.

I agree. Feb 5th 2001 and Mar 4-6th 2001 are still #1 and #2 for me despite having many storms that have eclipsed those in the snowfall department. Seeing CG thundersnow that strikes like 100ft from you in the middle of blinding snow when you didn't even know that was possible changes you when you're a kid.

Dont feel bad man i missed Feb 2003 (PD2), Oct 2011, Jan 2011 and Feb 2013. You'll get more chances for big ones in the future, doesn't sound like the risk, inconvenience, sleep deprivation, loss of money and everything else is worth it.

Then your best call is it not cancel and come home. You will never, ever have 90% probs of a MINIMUM of 24" even in a 12 hour window. Never.