The 4 Seasons

Since 6Z only goes out to 90 hours. If you go out even further in the run the differences are even more dramatic Let's take a look at H5 and compare it to 00Z at 105 hours and 111 hours, 4pm Sunday and 10pm Sunday respectively. The 12Z run is significantly different than the last big run at 00Z and much more what you want to see for rapid east coast cyclogenesis running up the coast. We are still quite a way out for this potential event but the afternoon runs overall are trending in the right direction. The EPS is not a great look overall at this range we are going to want to see an improvement at 00Z. Very few members are hits. Heres the mean SLP/QPF and member SLP.

that report does seem a little sussy though

Can't believe its been 5 years already. But this beautiful bomb hit Feb 9th 2017. Notable aspects of this storm is that was particularly easy to forecast with extremely good consensus amongst all models and run-run consistency. Widespread thundersnow broke out in CT during the early afternoon hours with rates reaching 4" per hour.

right now its looking like a sun afternoon into overnight. That would mainly be a night storm. But at this range ~100-120hrs you can expect that to shift up to 6-12 hours in either direction.

? wasn't it literally one bad season before that, 11-12. 10-11 was good to great for most of all SNE. 9-10 couldn't have been better than 10-11 even for your area?

overall the 2000s. 2000-2020 have been very good, only a couple horrible ratters in there like 01-02, 06-07, 11-12 and 19-20

There were a few reports in the 36-40" range around the Hamden/North Haven area down SW in the valley and Milford. I don't know much about that 40" Hamden report but i dont think it was ever verified or considered official. Here's some radar images and i snowfall map a couple years ago for this.

How many feet we talkin?

Actually yeah, technically. 50" would put me pretty well above average. I estimate that we are somewhere in the 30-35" range for about 100 years or since the start of most modern-day records. And for the past 20 years probably around 45". Especially considering BDRs past 20 years is 38.2" and all time is 29.6". So strictly based on numbers it's probably more like a B. But usually, for me anyway, a winter and the grade i gave it factors in way more than just straight snowfall...such as expectations, positive/negative busts, daytime vs. nighttime snowstorms, last minute model trends, snowpack and retention, temps, snow or rain/cutters around the holidays, etc. A lot of negatives for me this winter so far but it's not awful. 2020-2021 was certainly much better at this point.

I did... 0.9" on Christmas Eve MORNING. That lasted until the night. Then got wiped out Christmas morning and Day and Night with rain. an A and a F....averaging out to a mediocre C. lol

tell me about it. It was on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of confidence and consistency.

Just one comment i wanted to make, this was the first time trying to do a liquid equivalent map and ratios. If i didn't use your total it was most likely because i needed to use a report that had both and snowfall total and liquid total to derive a ratio. It wouldn't make sense to use a snowfall report from one person, a melted liquid report from another and ratio combining the two.

thanks man. did you guys put out a map for this one? i don't think i saw one

Given im at around 25" mid-season. One over performing storm, one underwhelming storm...one was night, one was day. Lots of 0.5-2" piddly sh*ts. Not much on the horizon. It's extremely mediocre. C

Up to date snowfall totals for Connecticut as of the last accumulating snowfall. Thanks to everyone for the reports. SE CT beating NW CT mid winter?

Totals took a while to compile. I want to thank everyone for their reports and speaking with me in the DMs. It's always tough when there is a sharp gradient in CT compounded by very high winds that cause blowing and drifting snow. I felt overall our forecast was very good, especially with the division between major snowfall totals (i.e. 1 foot+) and more pedestrian totals in the 6-12" range. We verified extremely well across a good portion of the state and population distribution. The gradient was even tighter than we forecast with less than 6-12" in the NW hills (3-6" there) and an area above the 20" threshold in far eastern and southeast CT (20-25" there). Overall CT Grade: B+ Final Call: First Call: Overall Tri-state Grade: B+ Final call: New Haven & Fairfield County totals: Town by town snowfall totals in CT This is the first time i created a liquid totals map to derive a snowfall ratio map as well. These numbers are (mostly) from CoCorahs, but take them with a grain of salt. There was a lot of smoothing and numbers that were completely thrown out due to being completely out of reality. This includes, the official totals from BDR and BDL! BDLs official snowfall was recorded as 6.8" with a liquid total of .21. This gives them an average ratio of 32:1. Obviously this was not used, as well as BDR. I did the best with the data i had to work with for these maps. Please use this as a GENERAL reference to liquid/ratios for this storm. A few times Jan 2015 was brought up in regards to this storm. There were many runs of the GFS and NAM that this showed up in the top 15 on CIPS and even a couple times it was #1 on the NAM. The surface low from Jan 2015 swung out wide and took a near due north track over the 40/70 benchmark, while slowing down signficantly and nearly stalling around the cape. This track and evolution were very similar to the 1/28-29/22 snowstorm. This, along with the H7 mid-level FGEN confined to eastern CT/RI and SE MA. In terms of sensible weather, snowfall and gradient of snowfall was also very similar. Jan 28-28/22 was like a Jan 26-27th lite. Lop about 3-6" over most of CT and the totals were pretty darn close. Not to mention the extreme gradient west of the river to about the 91-corridor.

it's morning, i get it. Where's...the demon?

lol congrats, i was just joshin'. i met him a couple times at new england conferences...hes a lot shorter than he looks on TV

it was an attempt at a joke, maybe you are a magnet you just need to reverse the polarity..north pole/south pole.

damn, that's quite a dream you had.

reverse the polarity.

Worcester is a literal magnet.

what was your total?

22" right?

7". thanks for the report man.