This is how the weenies read the AFDs
1/26 00Z guidance continues to boost confidence that we`re in store
for a high impact winter storm in southern New England on Saturday.
The ECMWF guidance is holding steady and all global guidance in
agreement that some locations will experience a
significant snowfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding. For those that have
been following along, I know you`ve heard it repeated to death, but
the key message continues to be the same: guidance is trending
favorably for a big storm, but the exact track remains uncertain.
This track is what will tell us exactly where the greatest snow,
wind, and coastal flooding concerns are.
The origin of this storm is a broad 500 mb trough that digs into the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday night into Saturday. Two shortwaves
within the broader flow, one northern and one southern stream may
phase with each other as they move east. The ECMWF continues to
favor a phasing solution leading to a stronger mid level low which
cuts off more quickly compared to the GFS which keeps these features
more removed and leads to a low that deepens more slowly. Either
way, there is a great deal of confidence that this trough will
generate a surface low off the Carolina coast that will rapidly
intensify as it moves up to New England. Guidance indicates
potential for this storm to undergo bombogenesis, meaning its
central pressure drops at least 24 mb in 24 hours. This creates a
very tight pressure gradient, meaning strong, potentially damaging
winds will accompany the snow. Bufkit soundings indicate potential
for gusts to as much as 70 mph for the Cape and islands during the
peak on Saturday. However, again the placement of heaviest winds,
whether or not we deal with a rain/snow line, and extent of coastal
flooding will be more clear as we approach and get a grasp of the
track. Current ensemble guidance indicates a majority of the low
centers passing in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark. If this
comes to pass we`ll be dealing with heavy snow over southeast MA,
strong winds, and potential for white out conditions. 00Z EPS
percentage possibility of a foot or more of snow continues to place
a 60-70% bullseye over southeast Massachusetts.
All jokes aside, its good read but nothing most of us don't know already.
I posted the current snowfall for the season in 2021-2022 winter snow. Watches are up for CT
