The 4 Seasons

lol the signs, dead giveaway..

PD II updated maps coming next. Oddly, i just check the list of all historic storms i have on the website right now and theres almost nothing from Feb 15th to the end of Feb other than PD2 and 1999/2010 for big ones. Tons in March though.

you rang

The main archive with each season goes back to 1994. Individual historic level storms back to 1888 and being filled in. Theres 295 storms on the main archive page. I list it near the top. How many maps have i done? I was curious, so i just checked, 1,199. Thats how many are up on the site right now including seasonal snowfall maps.

If we get shut out, sure. But i think most people grade a winter based on their local area and how much they receive compared to normal and other factors like cold/snow depth. Even though there was only 1 region wide warning event, any given area got at least 2-4 warning storms and 2-5 or 6 advisory level events. Through early feb its been great here with 2 warning storms and 2 advisory events with solid snow pack for over a month with a couple breaks and lots of cold. You can check out every single >1" storm for the season so far here: https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-25-26 Snowfall through Feb 3, which is about half way through climo, was about 30-40" across much of the state. I think we need, at least in my opinion 2 more good warning events or at least high end adv to start considering it high B or A range, otherwise it could drop to C/C+ ish. A 12"+ storm, Boxing Day 6"+ storm, and deep snow pack really helps bring this winter up but well have to wait and see how late Feb and all of March shake out. At least its been orders of magnitude better than the last 3 winters. Ill probably update this, this week.

Final call for late tonight/tom morning. NY/NJ area 1-2 thrilling stuff

all the NY/NJ climo sites are at or above normal through the date, LGA is right on the edge at +0.5 and EWR is +4.7, NYC is +1.6.

11 and 19 years ago today is the V-Day Blizzards of 2007 and 2015. I just finished replotting and fixing up 2015, 2007 ill do later. Also another new L. Northeast map for 2015 w/ climate sites. This was quite a big bust here we were under blizzard warnings for 4-8", got a quick 2" on the front end WAA snows then nothing with barely any wind (at least when it was snowing). 2nd part clipped E CT and destroyed Middlesex down to Plymouth and Bristol counties. 2015 was another one of the storms where i look at the radar and its hard to believe a widespread 14-22" fell over E MA but those rates were pretty insane for the brief time it snowed during part 2. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-14-15-2015 2007 was essentially a sleet storm for most of CT especially south of 84. Most of those snow totals are pure sleet. Snow totals overall are not that impressive >12" until you get into the Berkshires and Catskills in Ulster Co. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-14-2007

NAM

Seeing the qpf trend over the past 5 cycles is pretty hilarious

Radar https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/mar-4-6-2001

I mean it's an AFD in 2001, saying it on TV to tens of thousands of people is a very different thing. And the next AFD you can hear the disappointment and fear in drags words. Forecasts didn't change all that much but did go down a notch

Yeah and? Euro had a major storm that cycle. And the AIs did not, i knew the Euro op would waffle like that, but I never gave up fully on the threat of something like a scraper.

I just saw it I'll talk to you in the morning

GEFS will be interesting i bet some good hits in there. I knew there was something up with this storm i never gave up fully on it, gonna want to see some more tics though and ec to come on board as well

If that isn't a clear trend, I don't know what is

GFS is a tick or two away from being a full snowstorm here. The model that was furthest south and wanted nothing to do with this storm is now the most aggressive

That was the sentiment at the time AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL AFTN.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 414 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2001 ...SEVERE STORM COMPARABLE OR WILL EXCEED THE BLIZZARD OF 78 FOR SNE WITH 60 HR DURATION OF SNW AND MAX INTENSITY OF WORST CONDS 18Z TUE-00Z WED AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO OCCUR PARTS OF E MA COAST...DRAG

Eta, Avn, NGM, NOGAPS People think the NAM and HRRR is bad, they have idea about the NGM

We do, uh have a rather big storm on our hands, it'll rival the Blizzard of 1978... EVEN STRONGER

Foot meet mouth I could never forget that one. Ima do something special for Mar 2001

it wont die!

Icon/EPS will save us.... Knew more surprises were coming, I fully expect to be teased again at 06Z/12Z euro suite... Storm won't die

Thank God I didn't have to live through the shitty 80s, being 0-4 i have zero memory of anything from then. Pretty much just 2000 and beyond

You're doin better than Joe i think he forgot Jan 26 already. I guess 4"/hr was a bit conservative. That seems almost unbelievable I've heard of 7-8"/hr but damn