The 4 Seasons

18Z EPS

You're not Zeus! Mouth Party.

I see what Ant means, it's a little more noticeable on WSI than WM. Its really not that big of a change and we dont know the evolution beyond 90 so i wouldnt really take it as anything significant. Ens still the way to go, and those go out to 144Hr on the off-hour runs.

I would say south to north of the pike, NW of 84, Near 91 west east of 93 north of the merrit near 495 but north of 95, west of the river on east.

One model that ive noticed that has been crazy consistent for a D5-8 range is the ICON, the variation its had is very low compared to every other model.

the model is quite the...'gem'

I'm actually surprised its not 40mb weaker and supressed and shunted to the SE.. Not like the NAVGEM

Wow..i thought Christmas just passed? This is great news as the UKMET, even on paid sites didn't have this much data let alone the soundings. Pivotal is quickly becoming the premier site for free model data, and it even suprassing a lot of the paid sites. Pivotal keeps this up it might be the death of places like Weatherbell and WXmodels. Obviously not at that point but they may need to find another way for income. One thing i wish it had was the MSLP with the 3/6hr qpf overlay, but hey beggers can't be choosers, im thrilled with what we got now. The best thing is we now have 6 hr intervals past 72hrs to 144 instead of UQUAMS 12hr, plus we get to see precip from 72-144. Wxbell is awful, all the data didn't even load for 12Z, there is like 3 different types of charts with 24hr intervals, what a waste...its like looking at the old free ECMWF progs

This turned into a Climate Change thread real quick

This really shouldn't even have to be said but you're looking at an OP run 7+ days out. They have all wavered signficantly, it's what happens at that range.

Have an A-1 day!

You know I see a lot of possible outcomes to this senario and not a single one of them invloves Miller Time

C-W CT i think would rather take our chances with an A. Bs seems to sting.

Jan 16 i believe would be an A, it didn't make it far north. I forget the evolution exactly of how that formed Edit: Jan 18 def an A "snow bomb"

Yes. much better than 00Z, its coming right up the coast. Should be a big hit. We're still talking 180-204hrs. Ill be interested to see the EPS.

Dodging 9mm caliber weenie rounds like the matrix in there.

That was just measuring forecast error from the NWS/NDFD to final numbers. Using a snowfall metric. If you want to talk SLP or upper level error im sure the numbers would be quite different. But yeah the snowfall FX is atrocious. 12" min Error was about 130/135mi E of where it ended up. And i do remember the models and the NWS went all in on EC/NAM. I wouldn't say they went all in on an outlier, i always thought of it as two camps really. ECMWF/NAM vs. GFS/CMC(all models). Either way they chose to ignore them completely and put 100% stock in the former.

Salty McSalterson.

Miller A

has commenced. Where is the obs thread

Icon is great, but not only do i not really trust it, its at the end of its run as well. Ens still the way to go for the next couple days but i thought id share..

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SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL 2000-01 0 0 0 T 0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0 0 0 35.0 2001-02 0 0 0 0 0 T 3.5 T T T 0 0 3.5 2002-03 0 0 0 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 0 0 49.3 2003-04 0 0 0 0 0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0 0 0 42.6 2004-05 0 0 0 0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0 0 0 41.0 2005-06 0 0 0 0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 0 0 40.0 2006-07 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 0 0 12.4 2007-08 0 0 0 0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0 0 0 11.9 2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6 2009-10 0 0 0 0 0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0 0 0 51.4 2010-11 0 0 0 0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0 0 61.9 2011-12 0 0 0 2.9 0 0 4.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 7.4 2012-13 0 0 0 0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0 0 0 26.1 2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4 2014-15 0 0 0 0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0 0 0 50.3 2015-16 0 0 0 0 0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 0 0 32.8 2016-17 0 0 0 0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0 0 0 30.2 2017-18 0 0 0 0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 0 0 40.9 2018-19 0 0 0 0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0 0 0 20.5 Red = Ratters, under 10" Blue = Good winters, 40+ers You've been spoiled, we all have, in the 2000s. So far 19-20 is at 4.8" for NYC which is already well ahead of 3.5" they got from 01-02, which was one single event every other day and month was only T.

Not worse than 01-02. Nothing will probably beat that in my lifetime.