chubbs

LOL you want to get rid of the one station that hasn't moved. UHI warming? Phoenixville is on the water company reservoir property. Hasn't changed much at all as far as I can tell. West Chester and Coatesville have a reverse heat island effect. Both moved out of built up areas to cooler locations. Shows clearly in the station temperature data. Why don't you toss them instead? Your denier bias shows when you discuss NOAA's motivation. Complete BS on your part. NOAA is trying to get the right answer, using science, and succeeding. All the stations in Chesco are warming at about the same rate, including Phoenixville, and your house. NOAA splits the uprights. All Chesco raw data. No adjustments needed once we get past the big station moves.

Have the warm mid-latitude oceans. Also consistent with the new warming pattern flagged by Hanson: strongest N-Hemi warming shifting from arctic to mid-latitudes.

Despite its warm spike in the 1930s-1950s, Phoenixville shows considerable warming over the past 130 years in-line with NOAA. The only long-term Chesco station that didn't move to a cooler location. 100% raw data. Our deep-dive over the past several months has supported NOAA 100%.

Not sure what point you are making in the first para, but you are focusing on unimportant points. The county or state borders are irrelevant and I haven't seen any "stations that don't exist". Sounds like a denier fairy tale. The West Chester adjustments in the 1940s are set by the 1970 move. The West Chester move caused roughly 2.4F cooling. I get an average adjustment in the 1940s of 2.2F. Again these adjustments are data driven. The chart I posted above showed the sudden West Chester cooling in 1970 relative to nearby stations. Easy to see where the bias adjustments for West Chester come from. Would bias the result if the "chilling" move was not accounted for. Your view of NOAA and science is a strawman.

Is concerning. The study linked above was based on 2023 data at Mauna Loa. Data so far this warm season shows an unusually small decline in CO2. We'll see if it can be explained by weather or some other factor.

First lets clear one thing up. NCEI doesn't chill anything. The bias adjustments come entirely from the data collected at other stations. The Coatesville station changes were identified by the other stations, not NOAA. If Coatesville didn't have changes vs other stations it wouldn't get bias adjustments. How do we know? The method has been well tested. Per chart below big changes occurred at Coatesville that were not related to station moves. and some moves had very little impact on temperatures. All based on comparison to other stations. Adding Sadsburyville doesn't change the fact that Coatesville had more 95 days than other stations in the region (95F days by decade below). Over time Coatesville changed from having more 95 days than Philadelphia and the Newark De Ag farm, to having roughly the same, to having less. Overall the 95 degree day data is consistent with the bias adjustments Coatesville receives through the years. The Doe Run Rd site should have fewer 95 days than Philadelphia. 95F days isn't the whole story of course, we've also seen that low temperatures dropped with the move to Doe Run Rd. There could have been other changes as well. You are the guy who is altering Chesco's climate information. While NOAA's method is proven, your is deeply flawed. It is well known that taking a simple average of a changing network skews the result. Not sure why it is so hard for you to accept that simple fact. Imagine thinking that the City of Coatesville, the town of West Chester and Phoenixville are a good representation for all of Chester County. Here's a homework assignment for you. Find current stations in the city of Coatesville, the town of West Chester, combine with Phoenixville and compare to your current network. I am betting that the average of those three stations will be much warmer than the county as a whole. We already know that Phoenixville is warmer.

Adjustments start from the present and work back in time. Since the rural Doe Run site is the most recent, it sets the baseline. The more urban sites are adjusted to match Doe Run.

My reading of the NCDC docs is that the station was located at or near the weather bureau office, which had several downtown locations from 1870s to 1950s when it moved to airport. Airport obs started in 1940 and there was some cooling based on a comparison to nearby sites.

As usual you are all talk and no evidence. Coatesville and West Chester had a clear reverse heat island effect. Moving from more to less urban sites. If there wasn't a "dust bowl" in Philadelphia or Delaware, there wasn't one in Chester Co.

I posted the chart and table previously. The Phoenixville spike in 95F days in the 30s is completely spurious. It was shown upthread that Phoenixville ran warm in the afternoon and had a warm time of day bias. It was also shown that Coatesville and West Chester were in warmer, more urban locations, in the 30s and 40s. Unlike Phoenixville, July 36 was a normal month in Philadelphia, much cooler than the current July, Sorry no dust bowl in Chester County. Not even close.

The paper Bluewave linked is the best I have seen. Would expect any cooling to flip to a very small warming as water persists in the stratosphere. We'll see what future papers say about 2023 and HT.

Latest blog from Tamino on how fast it is warming. Chart below adjusts temperatures for natural factors: enso, volcanoes and solar. Last dot is year-to-date. The enso adjustment Tamino is using appears to work for the cooling phase of enso cycles but not recent warming phases. 2015 and 2023 in particular step-up more than expected, giving the chart a staircase look. Not a stairway to heaven either. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/07/10/how-fast/

Yes, NOAA makes perfect sense when you compare to nearby stations and factor in station moves. To say nothing about regional and global warming.

Won't be able to check till I get back from shore.

The guy is a denier, not a climate scientist, who has been dismissing CO2 GHG warming for years. Now he is touting GHG warming from water vapor in the stratosphere. I don't think so. He lost me right at the start with handwaving arguments, so I didn't bother to read. The blog below gives a good update on HT from a scientist. Note the part on the minimal importance of GHG effects in the stratosphere vs troposphere, based on calculations not handwaving. The water from HT went into the wrong spot to cause much GHG warming. The mid and upper troposphere is also very dry and far from greenhouse saturation, but there is much more material to radiate outwards in the troposphere because pressures are much higher. In other words, the para that you quoted above about the troposphere vs stratosphere is complete BS. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-climate-impact-of-the-hunga-tonga

Here are the local temperatures before and after the West Chester move in 1970. The move to a more rural location dropped West Chester temps close to Coatesville and NOAA. Looks like a reverse heat island effect impacted 2 of the 3 main Chesco COOP stations.

Not clear? ALL THE BIAS ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE STATION DATA. Stations have adjustments, not counties, not states, not climate divisions, etc.. I showed you how to access the station adjustment information upthread. Not the first time either. Answering a previous question, I posted the Phoenixville chart below about a month ago; and got a very snide response. There are two main periods with Phoenixville adjustments: the warm spike in the mid 20'th century, that we have already identified and a cool period in the 1980s and 90s. West Chester (also below) appears to be similar to Coatesville, with a likely move-related cooling. The last move to a suburban site occurred in 1970. Since that time bias adjustments have been minimal. The only exception is a big spike around 1990, when the time of observation changed. The bias adjustments that we have investigated are justified and accurate. The past months deep dive into Chesco's climate data has left NOAA smelling like a rose. Thanks for kicking it off. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/

Could you elaborate on the strong PV. Haven't been following since last winter to be honest. Is there any relation to the current melt season which has accelerated from slow to fast in the past couple of weeks or are they completely (Doesn't appear to be).

Here is the raw and bias-adj values for Coatesville 1SW. Bias adjustment starts today and works backward, so the Doe Run Road site sets the baseline for Coatesville 1SW. Bias adjustments are small for Coatesville 1SW after the move to a rural site in 1948. Note there are some small cooler adjustments in the 1970s. Before 1948 the bias adjustments are variable, reflecting the many moves and other station changes, but generally increase with time. The adjustments are largest for the 1893 to roughly 1920 period. This agrees well with the 95F+ chart I posted earlier and other charts I have posted over the years in various forums. Coatesville has more hot days in that period than other stations in this region, including stations outside the county in warmer locations, like Philadelphia. Per your question, sounds like you are still having problems understanding NOAA's methods, despite my previous explanations. Here is one more attempt. ALL THE BIAS ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE STATION DATA. There are no further adjustments once the station adjustments have been made. THE OLDER COOP STATIONS ARE IN WARM LOCATIONS. Not surprising that the county average is warmer than the station results. The same thing occurs today. Phoenixville is always warmer than the county average. After the stations have been bias adjusted, NOAA maps the station values to a 5 by 5 km grid across the country. At this point the County boundary has not played any role. Why would it? The atmosphere doesn't care about the county boundary. Only at the very end are values for the county, climate division (SE PA Piedmont), state, etc, calculated from the 5 by 5 km gridded values.

And there is more. Per NCDC, West Chester also changed the time of observation. At 8AM between 1952 and 1989, at 6PM between 1989 and 1992, and at midnight when a digital system was installed in 1998.

Per NCDC, West Chester also had several station moves. The map and station list below are screenshots from the NCDC site. Unfortunately there are no street addresses and the location information is only approximate. The West Chester station moved within the Borough of West Chester and nearby suburbs. Like Coatesville the last station appears to be the least rural (#1,#5) in a residential neighborhood just outside of town.

Thanks for the map. The rest of the response is short on evidence. Lets get into it. First a couple of comments on the map. NCDC shows 6 sites, while you show 5. Perhaps that is why you don't show any site for 1947. Also several of your city locations don't match the street addresses listed by NCDC and posted above. Not sure that the details are that important. The last site from 1948-82 on Doe Run road is clearly more rural than the other sites. “Overall siting looks pretty consistent over a very short distance” No need to guess. Google earth shows the sites are different. We can see the impact of the moves in the observed temperatures. The timing of the moves after the war coincides with temperature changes. “It looks like the “warmest” relative observing site very well might have been the one near the steel mill plant from 1917 to 1930” Again no need to guess. The observations at Coatesville and nearby sites can provide a ranking. . I haven't taken a close look at it yet, except to see that the rural site is noticeably cooler. I've been telling you for years that Coatesville cooled relative to other sites after the war. “Overall all of this Coatesville data observation moves clearly did not have much of an impressive impact on these stations and more importantly on the overall averages for Chester County overall” A meaningless word salad. Its clear that the moves after the war had an impact on measured temperature that would also change your network average. Again you don't have to guess, just compare 1945 and 1948. More importantly the moves within and outside the city of Coatesville reinforce the evidence that has been piling up for weeks. You aren't doing a very good job of estimating Chester County's temperature change through the years. Meanwhile NOAA's bias adjustments are supported by hard evidence of changes at the COOP stations.

Not sure your question is relevant. Eyeballing the temperature chart Coatesville and nearby stations there wasn't any cooling in the 1940s that explains the drop at Coatesville, and the drop is mainly due to a change in low temperature. If you isolate the East Main street site by only looking at 1930-45, and, only look at the ten years after the move occurred. The night-time cooling effect is even larger. The results bounce around for other year selections but are always in the same direction. I have also added google earth views of the two sites using location info from NCDC. The sites are very different. Coatesville 1930-1945 Coatesville 1948-82

Here's the difference. Coatesville had two moves after the war and ended up in a more rural location. Coatesville temperatures dropped relative to other nearby stations clearly implicating the moves. Not sure why that's so hard for you to accept, you are always telling us important the urban heat island is.

Well, your not even close to getting our past climate right. Funny, for a guy who favors raw data you don't show us much. Just your network averages. There's a wealth of information in our raw coop data, that you are missing. For instance at Coatesville, when the station moved to a more rural area in 1948 the nights got cooler but the days stayed about the same. A nice example of the urban heat island effect.