chubbs

Less regional variability in US than I would have expected.

Warming picked-up coming out of the hiatus. GISS v4 currently has a 30-year warming rate of 0.21/decade. The 10-year rate is 0.36/decade (barely significant due to short period) http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

Not sure where you are getting your paleo (or other) info from. CO2 is a control knob and water magnifies the impact of CO2. Without CO2 there wouldn't be much water vapor in the atmosphere. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356

Can't get too excited about any one study or model. However, after 40+ years of rapid warming since aerosols stabilized, it should be clear that nature isn't going to bail us out.

Yes and the summer sun was 5+% stronger in the arctic in the HCO explaining the summer warmth. We are blowing past the HCO in the arctic with unfavorable orbital conditions for arctic warmth.

Interesting how misinformation on climate science and renewables goes hand-in-hand.

Funny, I have the opposite reaction to ice cores. The temperature/CO2 correlation is almost perfect in ice cores and modern observations.

Hasn't received any publicity, but the NHemi oceans are scorching, much more important to global July temp records than the brief European heat wave. Per below the warming has continued in early Aug. UHI?

No -RSS implemented a new method in V4. The main difference between uah and RSS, is that uah discards some NOAA-14 data because it "warmed too much". RSS is in much better agreement with other data sets. Below is land temperatures where diurnal drift is most important. UAH lags in the late 1990s/early 2000s when the NOAA-14 data was removed.

Warmest July for RSS - 0.71 vs 0.70 in 2010. 0.8C of warming in past 40 years.

Thanks Don, does appear relevant this year.

Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern.

With the favorable conditions we have had this year, am going to stick with my original prediction of 2019/20. Any other year is a crap shoot, or Russian roulette with the number of bullets slowly increasing. The 2012 volume anomaly minimum, around -8000000 km3, will be average in less than a decade.

Looking more and more like a 2 horse race

From Amy Butler's twitter. Unusual coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere this summer. Models at times too eager to end pattern.

The switch to fv3 has messed up Maine's anomaly calc, June is going to be warm, top 3 most likely.

4 days later forecasts are variable but most keep it going for quite some time - probably helping by preventing a classic dipole

A crapshoot. I see you also picked 19/20. Have to check back in a couple of weeks to see if we still have a shot at getting lucky (or unlucky).

Bump Crunch time for my wag. A month ago would have pushed the record min out in time, but will let it ride given the current pattern.

Recent summer warming in the Yukon exceeds the Holocene climatic maximum despite reduced summer insolation vs early Holocene. https://t.co/gCPWogUB5N

Top 100m of ocean. Tends to go up in steps, with this decades step unusually large.

IPO phase could bring September ice-free date forward. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081393

Very unlikely that the warming in the southern oceans over the past couple of weeks has anything to do with upwelling. Expansive Hadley cells a more likely explanation. Note that fresh water from Antarctica ice sheet is just starting to ramp-up and will take centuries to play out.

Antarctic sea ice has large natural variability. Here are a couple of speculations: 1) I don't recall the details but one paper flagged the the large nino in 2015/16. For sea ice the timing does line-up, 2) The antarctic ozone hole is slowly recovering this would tend to weaken winds and produce warming, both of which will reduce sea ice extent 3) Antarctica warming lags because of the deep ocean nearby which is slow to warm. as time proceeds though Antarctica will catch-up. Per the chart below, the south pole has also warmed in the past decade in a way that doesn't match enso, so it is likely more than just enso.

A nice explainer on ice sheet dynamics and WAntarctic instability but not for the climate faint of heart. https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/big-melt-earths-ice-sheets-are-under-attack