Buffalo Bumble

Today was one of the warmer lake effect rain events I can remember. It was in the low 60’s here this afternoon with heavy lake effect rain. 40-50 degrees is probably a more typical temp range. Goes to show how warm the lake still is I guess.

Thunder snow!!! Ok, not quite, but frequent lightning and pounding rain here in the lake effect band.

Yeah, just started really cranking here. We haven’t received any meaningful rain here since early June (the lake shadow did it’s best to make my neighborhood a desert this summer), so this is a welcome sight.

I actually just jumped on to post, somewhat sarcastically, that models are in agreement that BUF will have a snowstorm on Sept 30/Oct 1. The trough i'm seeing on all the major models for that time period is crazy. With all 3 models pretty consistent at the very least we can probably expect below normal temps with rain chances early to mid next week. But snow...that would beat the October Surprise by about a week. Hard sell on that for now.

Will BUF (or ROC and SYR for that matter) receive more than 0.1 inch of rain before October? Current modeling says maybe not.

Looks really dry for at least the next 10 days too. Less than 0.5 inch on most models. We greened back up a bit here but overall it’s been quite a dry stretch of weather for our area going all the way back to June. Interesting how several dry fronts have pushed through at times too.

I got this response from BUF after I emailed about temps being too high. No indication of reevaluating temp recordings during the period when the sensor issue was occurring. I guess we have to take temp “records” with a grain of salt. “You are right. The temperature sensor on the automated equipment is bad. The weather observers who augment the observations are having to do the temperature manually. A new temperature sensor is on backorder, so it could be a while that our observers have to do this extra work. I hope this helps.” NWS Buffalo

How is it that us weather weenies were the ones to sniff this out and notify them? Local mets put up current temps every night on their broadcasts for BUF and several towns throughout Erie and surrounding counties. You would think think something would tip them off after saying every night, "BUF is the hot spot yet again tonight..." Not to mention the NWS mets who are actually paid to keep an eye on this stuff.

Not to belabor this but...75 at BUF at 815 pm, really? When Nia Falls, Roc, Syr are 64-68? Getting silly now.

Good image to tell the story! Quick look at current temps right now tells the same story. BUF at 71, at least 3 degrees higher than anywhere else nearby, including lakeshores and other urban areas.

I’ve noticed the same all summer! Especially late evenings/early night. Temp at BUF has consistently been 4-6 deg warmer than nearby locations.

Looks like about 0.1 inch here since yesterday with nothing more coming. Not quite the 2-4” that was forecast just a few days ago.

Weird thing about last night was the lightning strikes were so close, yet no rain. Big claps of thunder, I look outside expecting to see rain, nada. This also. happened a couple weeks ago. Very strange. Be on the lookout for suburban neighborhood lightning induced forest fires...

Interesting pattern here for the last...3 months. Doesn’t want to cool off and doesn’t want to rain. Mentioned this before, but nighttime temps seem to be quite warm and BUF in particular can’t seem to dip below 75 before midnight. 75 currently post “cold front”. Forecast min is 55, I’ll take the over. I haven’t heard much talk about excessive dryness so maybe the lake shadow has been in overdrive all summer here...but leaves are dropping in my neighborhood like early October. Radar looked good last night and we ended up with maybe .01 inch. Anyway, random musings on what has been a pretty extreme warm and dry summer IMBY. If things don’t break cooler and wetter for at least a few days based on the forecast, I’ll have to call BS on the atmosphere...

Hope it verifies. Still bone dry here. Lots of leaves dropping as trees get more stressed. Could use a good region-wide soaking.

Just another normal summer night at BUF sitting at 86 deg as we approach 8pm. So warm, so late, all summer. Interesting...

That really is remarkable. April was such a blip on a warm landscape. Good research.

Race to 90 degrees. BUF currently at 88, Roc and Syr at 89.

Bone dry here. Lake Erie, even as warm as it is, has redirected all the rain away from us the last few weeks. Serious rain shadow. I’ll water tonight and looks like nothing incoming for the next several days.

Wow, don’t remember ever seeing a tornado warning issued for that area of the ADKs. Back country campers take cover!

Amazing. Looks like a week or so of near normal temps coming up, then back to a big torch? Global op runs seem to be showing that anyway.

Every day this month at BUF has been at or above normal. Today will come in above, tomorrow could actually be close. Anyone know if BUF has ever run the table on a month with above normal temps? Temps haven’t been too high the last couple weeks, but I’ve been impressed with how high the mins are staying. Every time I check the temps around 11pm BUF is still in the 78-80 range. Tropical.

Kinda interesting that the entire Niagara Frontier is draped in a solid cloud deck this morning. Forecast from BUF and discussion was full sun with stabilizing lake shadow with strong SW wind. Perhaps the lake temp has warmed to the point that the typical shadow affect isn't activating...?