Buffalo Bumble

Incredible setup. Look forward to reading your posts the next couple days.

What’s your elevation?

Sorry to hijak the thread but my daughter just left the Harp to take a run in the snow falling in Boston in hopes of some good vibes to push the Bills over the Dolphins. No bad will towards the Pats intended!

You guys are killing me with these Buffalo posts (I lurk in here b/c you have great long range discussion). Seeing people running through the neighborhood yesterday in shorts and t-shirts with 867” of snow on the ground was quite amusing. Hope you guys bust out of the snow drought soon!

IMO any increase in lake temps due to AGW has a negligible if not totally de minimis affect on lake effect snow totals. The intensity of lake affect snow depends on so many variables. Wind direction in lower and upper levels, wind speed, available moisture and, yes, air/lake water temp differential. I think if this same event happened and the lake temp was 3 degrees warmer because of AGW, maybe somewhere gets one inch more. Negligible. I’m sure there’s a scientific analysis you could run to pin this down but my hunch is the numbers would show little to no effect.

Picked up about 8” here (Chaumont) last night as the Lake Ontario band strengthened and moved through. A calm, moderate snow with cotton ball flakes is falling now as this five day storm draws to a close. Headed home to Buffalo tonight where I’ll be greeted by 3-4 feet of snow in my driveway and along my sidewalks and probably 5’ at the end of the driveway. Woohoo!

This is hard to hear and so tragic.

Been posting on Discord but for posterity’s sake here’s a quick rundown of the event so far from Chaumont, northern Jefferson County…Blizzard conditions quickly developed behind the cold front on Friday. Snow fell throughout the night with frequent wind gusts over 60mph. The blizzard raged all day Saturday, no drop in winds. Snowfall wasn’t heavy here but visibility ranged from zero to less than 1/4 mile. No relief through Christmas Eve night. Winds slightly lessened on Christmas morning as heavy snow moved in (to this point, Lake Ontario wasn’t producing heavy lake effect snow due to pretty extreme wind sheer). On and off heavy snow during Christmas Day, heaviest just south of here on the northern Tug. Winds dropped to 20-40mph by Christmas night. Heavy snow ongoing now as the band shifted north overnight. 24-30” on the ground in protected areas here. On the backend of the storm now but conditions are still intense with the heavy snow and gusty winds. I’ll post some photos later…

Rich, this was epic!! Awesome job!

I’m just on the other side of the border, in Chaumont, NY. I can attest to the blizzard! Not too much snow here, guessing about 8” since yesterday, but visibility has been between 0 and 1/4 mile for going on 30 hours with frequent gusts well over 50mph. Looks like you had the brunt of the snow over there today as winds have been more S/SW.

Absolutely. Just the videos so far are unreal.

Childish I know, but this made me lol. Read it slowly…

If your friend is taking 81, tomorrow might actually be the better day. The lake effect should be “off” both highways as it gets directed into Canada on S/SW winds. Traveling down 81 on Sunday will probably involve driving through a band somewhere, same on the 90 south of BUF. Other option is take 87 to the 90 on Sunday. EDIT: Tomorrow is definitely better for that drive.

About 3” here in the last hour with just one but very impressive thunder snow.

Looks like winds have shifted to SW over the west end of L Erie so I would think a few more hours for a new band to fully form. So around 7pm is my guess.

That’s like a Sierra’s forecast during an atmospheric river event. Actually, this is like a 30 mile wide atmospheric river, Great Lakes style…

Dude…we lived dual adolescent lives but off different Great Lakes. I grew up about 20 miles west of Syracuse, or 15 miles south of the Lake Ontario snow belt. Many midwinter days after arctic fronts passed by under cobalt blue skies with temps in the teens and a stiff W/NW wind while the northern sky was black as night. My ground was frozen with 1/4” post FROPA snow cover while competing school districts to the north were canceling sporting events due to 36-48” episodes. First chase to the far northern kingdom 15 miles away post drivers license was enlightening.

Back to BUF on Monday, chasing the lake effect snow next week as the snow monger in me compels me to do.

Haha, totally my bad. I saw a New England bomb and totally got sucked in. All model runs after that were just noise.

Personal Boston forecast bust…In town visiting my daughter today. Based on model runs earlier last week I said forget about any outdoor stuff today. Told her to plan for rain at best, tempest at worst. Got busy at work and didn’t check forecast before arriving last night. After spending the day bar hopping downtown with temps in the low 70’s and a comforting summer breeze I’ve lost all credibility as a weather hobbyist. Boston weather humbled me today, I’m sure the Bruins will do the same to “my” Sabres tonight.

That’s exactly what we experienced during the October 2006 storm. Like continuous musket shots. Don’t envy you at all, the mess is both difficult to clean and depressing seeing the impact to trees. We can still see evidence of the 2006 storm to this day in lopped off tree tops and funky shaped trees.

I’ve been thinking we’ve had a long stretch of weekends with mostly bad weather. So I checked…Every weekend since December 1st has had at least one day with precip. Doesn’t mean every weekend has been a washout or snowy but not a single Sat/Sun with no precip since 12/1. Didn’t look back farther than that…It’s our climo I guess.

Is April really a spring month here? You could make a case for it being a winter month. Mild temps are generally in advance of a cold front and last a couple days or less, base weather is cloudy/damp/cool to cold/occasional snow showers. So Jan through April = winter; May and June = spring; July through Sept = summer; Oct = fall; Nov and Dec = winter. That’s 6 months of winter.

Periods of moderate snow all morning. Deep, deep mud in the yard. Numb hands walking the dog. Thanks April.

That’s absolutely terrifying. Puts the risk of chasing let alone driving in heavy snow rates in clear perspective. And that person literally diving out of the way…