pazzo83

DCA finishes the year with the fewest days at or below freezing (24).

lol it’s New Year’s Eve!!

93 was insane… heavy snow in northern FL, 50+” in the mountains of NC, VA, and WV, blizzard conditions from GA to ME. We got about 20” of wind driven snow and hours of white out conditions

96 is probably tops for me (around 3 ft in Staunton) but 93… man, we will never see a storm like that again.

I know what will cheer everyone up.... Pictures of snow in places south of us!!!

lol maybe our weather can be described by a uniform distribution

Yet another winter day where DCA fails to hit the freezing point

it does feel like the officiating in the NFL is becoming atrocious.

heads up DMV folks

the DC area got lucky with 2019 and 2022. Still a pretty tough drought for everyone.

lol we don't even get below 30 in the city.

Good win for the ACC. Unfortunately Carolina lost and Louisville isn't looking too great.

Over 6" of rain this month with the 0.67" and counting here in Tenleytown - we've definitely turned the corner in terms of precip lol.

we'd have to get to basically the end of the season to set the record for DCA - seems unlikely but I guess you never know. BWI and IAD have already set the records for consecutive days with no snow > 1".

yeah i mean that's what we'd expect from a slightly cold-biased model output given low position and other factors. i think the question is, on that particular model run (and we've seen this in quite a few others over the past couple of years), why - given the low position, antecedent air mass, etc - was the boundary layer so warm? What is having the model generate that as the highest probability outcome? We've seen a number of such outputs - and actual events - that should have some snow that were rain for virtually everyone. Obviously the concern here is that the base state has warmed significantly and models are starting to output scenarios - even fleeting - that reflect that. You disagree with that premise so you try to undermine any such concern. That's fine - but don't trivialize the concern.

Google gives me 4hr 20 min drive from DC to Snowshoe.

Gotta be somewhere along an axis from Snowshoe to far W MD right?

again - you are focusing on the discrete (PSA to the board - not you WF - the word is discrete, not discreet - discreet describes acting in a way so as to avoid attention) outcome relative to others in the overall model timeseries vs the fact that the model generated such an output at all - and we've seen myriad other such outputs over the past couple of years (and real outcomes that match them).

Obviously no "warmest Dec ever" for our area, but DCA is poised to record a monthly low that is actually a degree warmer than Nov (28F in Nov vs 29F this month). We've also had only 6 days at 32 or below compared to 4 days (so far) of 60+.

just keep your head buried in the sand I guess.

yeah training on re-analysis is brilliant. in this way the model can "figure out" the math on its own.

again - you are missing the point. the fact that it was a model output at any point is the concern.

those models are pure neural network models that don't incorporate any hard-coded equations like traditional weather models, right?

i don't think you are quite grasping what he's saying. all weather models are probabilistic models that factor in historical data, current observed data, and the understood mathematics that describe the atmosphere. obviously it could be wrong because models are often wrong. but let's look at the inputs again - unless you are arguing that one of those inputs was somehow corrupted for this particular model run, it is telling you that the most likely outcome is what is shown (with rain basically everywhere). i think that is where the concern lies - it is outputting an outcome that is not what one would've expected in years past, meaning it is incorporating some sort of fundamental change in terms of those inputs. I don't think the math has changed wildly (if only to improve model precision), so...