Latest Enso anomaly map.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html
Looking at the latest 2 week loop suggests that if we in fact see a Nino (60% fall, 70% winter) a Western based one would probably be favored, at least initially. Can't rule out it morphing towards a central based Nino (Modoki) with time but with the continual up-welling of cold pools moving westward into the eastern portion of the 3.4 region it doesn't look favorable at this time. Both phases are good for snow chances in our region with the Modoki probably being favored. All of this is contingent on a -NAO for the winter to allow cold air dumps into the Eastern portion of the nation. Otherwise a +NAO bottles up the cold in Canada and we waste an active southern jet as it brings in the storms and moisture but the warmth as well.