Chinook

As of right now, the models have something very interesting for Oklahoma in about a week

I posted a Euro image like this 6 or 7 days ago -- and a rather serious storm did develop today. The 500mb is quite as closed off today as that particular run of the Euro 6 or 7 days ago, but it did sniff out a major low pressure in the region. Now, look at this for next Saturday. The Euro precip shows rain in MO and snow for Nebraska and north KS.

Kansas City airport now has blizzard or near-blizzard conditions KMCI 251829Z 01026G42KT 1/4SM R19R/2200V2600FT SN FZFG OVC008 M01/M02 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 01042/1826 P0002 T10111022 KMCI 251809Z 01027G39KT 1/4SM R19R/2200V3000FT SN FZFG SCT007 OVC011 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 01042/1758 P0000 T10061017 KMCI 251801Z 01027G42KT 1/2SM R19R/2800V3000FT SN FZFG BKN007 OVC010 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 01042/1758 P0000 T10061017 KMCI 251755Z 01028G42KT 1/4SM R19R/2800V3500FT SN FZFG SCT006 OVC010 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1754 P0000 T10061017 KMCI 251753Z 36025G42KT 1/2SM R19R/2800V3500FT SN FZFG BKN006 OVC010 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 02042/1747 SLP031 931003 P0010 60027 T10061017 10050 21006 50005 KMCI 251739Z 01021G34KT 1/2SM R19R/2600V3500FT SN FG BKN006 OVC010 00/M01 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/1719 P0008 T00001011 KMCI 251725Z 01021G36KT 1/4SM R19R/2200V2800FT +SN FG BKN006 OVC010 00/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/1719 P0006 T00001011

Well, you could go 3.42 years without a tornado watch, as DTX has.

Yes, this breaks a streak for Kansas City CWA. # of days since winter storm warning, as of yesterday, 11/23

The latest Euro says this storm cuts off as it forms in Colorado and Kansas. The QPF shows heavy snow in Kansas and Nebraska, like 1.2" water equivalent of snow at Goodland KS. It will be interesting to see if this type of extreme is shown if we get this storm within 72-96 hours. Right now, it's 6.5 days out, essentially.

Central Texas rainfall of over 7" caused some rivers to go into flood stage

Typhoon Trami, as viewed from the International Space Station (I think.) See twitter for animated image (very cool). Typhoon Trami effectively made landfall on Okinawa, Japan, and there are a lot of U.S. Military members there.

Super Typhoon Mangkhut is now a textbook Category 5 cyclone, and JTWC predicts that it will impact the northern Phillipines (Luzon.) It might be a pretty close call with landfall

Typhoon Jebi has been analyzed by the JTWC as 80 kt (down from 90 kt earlier today) and will most likely make landfall on Japan at Shikoku, (one of the 4 main Japanese islands,) west of Kyoto. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shikoku

I just saw a tweet about Super Typhoon Jebi, affecting the Northern Mariana Islands, U.S. Territory.

KFWS radar storm totals for the last 48 hrs. Perhaps some areas of Texas will be changed from D3 drought to D2 drought.

KFWS storm total precipitation in the past 2 days and 9 hours

Finally, Texas has already seen some moderate rains this morning, and should have more in the short term

July 4, 2004 had quite a few storm reports from Kansas to western and central Tennessee https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040704_rpts.html

This was the biggest joke of a tornado watch. Almost no severe reports in it.

SPC is expecting to issue a tornado watch for W Kentucky and western and central Tennessee.

Radar image of Typhoon Maria, from Taiwan. This shows a lot of heavy rain bands over Taiwan. It is asymmetric Cat-2 to Cat-3 intensity at this time.

Super Typhoon Maria (not to be confused with last year's Atlantic storm) has reached 140 knots as per the JTWC. This will weaken slowly as it approaches China and north Taiwan. (Taiwan on the west side of this map)

It's not too often you find the 3000 -4000 J/kg of CAPE at the same areas as 50-60 kt of shear in June. And this almost shows a good overlap of these elements. It seems to be true that multicells/ squall line(s) will be likely tomorrow. It definitely could be more interesting (discussion-wise) to see more discrete supercells. Realistically, we may see quite a few severe storms with 30 - 45 kt of shear, as maybe those 50 kt values will be in the cold air sector.

according to what I have heard, there was a highly damaging hailstorm in Dallas- Fort Worth

Here's something a little off topic. I have noticed today that the 18z 3-km NAM products, as shown on PivotalWeather.com and College of Dupage, have taken from 18:00z till 23:00z, 5 hours, and they're not even completely done. This does not take so long for the 00z 3-km NAM products. Is NCEP just processing that much more computational stuff during the mid-day time?

The GFS shows a decent synoptic setup for severe weather on Saturday, with CAPE of 4000 J/kg in OK and KS. There is a cold front, warm front, and dryline. There could be 70-73 degree dew points in Oklahoma. 0-6km shear values increase from 18z to 00z.

Last year did finish with near normal tornadoes for the US (1418 tornadoes), but the storm chasers on the Plains may have been quite unhappy with it. Further information on tornado trends. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends

This year seems to be following the pattern of some of the recent years, like 2013-2016. There seem to be less chaseable tornadoes, and less severe weather overall. I wonder if somehow this relates to the mid 80's (1983-1988 ??) when tornado numbers were low. I heard that Howie Bluestein and Chuck Doswell were bored, no storms to chase.