Chinook

I probably should have tried to get a picture of lenticular clouds yesterday, but I didn't.

this one is just for Mayjawintastawm... finally we have a long-range GFS run the connects the possible Caribbean hurricane with the cold front in New England

Yesterday, my area was totally clear except for some beautiful lenticular clouds. It has been probably 2 weeks or more since I saw the mountains with so much clarity, for example, 50 miles visibility out to the Indian Peaks. Today, it is clear, and I can see a little bit of smoke to my northwest from the active fire, with no haze/smoke in any other areas. Some of the trees are really changing to nice colors, although the wind knocked off a significant amount of leaves from a few trees. The GEFS shows broadly cooler air across the Midwest and into our area in the upcoming week.

Granby at 8200 ft had snow reported today. My area dropped from 80 yesterday to about 51 at 6:00PM today.

My area has measured wind gusts up to 47mph right now with the cold front. That ought to mix away the smoke a little bit. Haven't had 45mph since the unusual derecho this summer. Edit: max wind to 51 kt (59mph) at Denver KDEN 112053Z 31035G47KT 3SM HZ SCT090 BKN150 BKN220 16/01 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 32051/2041 PRESRR SLP044 T01560006 53033

Smoke and a little bit of ash are affecting me today. Maybe the fires will keep going for another couple of months

I think the center of circulation has made landfall. The radar can be a little confusing if you don't see a complete circle of radar returns, representing the eyewall. wind gusts up to 82mph out of the north at Cameron LA

observation from "South Marsh 268A" which is offshore from Marsh Island: wind 54 kt gusting to 68 kt, which means the gusts are over hurricane force. Texas Point, Sabine Pass TX (on land) - north wind 54 kt gusting to 63 kt.

How do the great November storms correlate with ENSO? Nov 1913: El Nino! Nov 1940 (Armistice Day Storm): El Nino! Nov 1950: La Nina Nov 1966 (985 mb): possibly neutral Nov 1975 (Edmund Fitzgerald): La Nina Nov 2002 (tornado outbreak) El Nino Does anybody else have any thoughts about this?

What if we run out of letters on the Greek alphabet for tropical storms? What if we retire Hurricane Delta? In the future, will we have to go directly from Tropical Storm Gamma to Tropical Storm Epsilon? It doesn't seem right, but if you aren't used to the Greek alphabet, it doesn't sound so bad.

my personal observations since the firey times started AUG 2020 Aug 1: thunder in the area, evening light rain, 0.35" of rain Aug 2: trace of rain Aug 4: 0.04" of rain aug 7: very hot aug 14: Cameron Peak fire, smoke plume above aug 15: Cameron Peak fire, smoke plume above, and smells of smoke, reduced visibility aug 16: smells of smoke, reduced visibility aug 18: high of 98-99 degrees in Loveland aug 19: trace of rain, around 0.05" in Fort Collins aug 20: lightning in the area, around 0.05" in Fort Collins and up to 0.02" in south loveland (none here) aug 22: high of 95.4 here, 96-101 in Loveland. Smells of smoke in the morning, weird sky all day, smoke from california. aug 25: high 95-97 aug 26: trace of rain aug 28: 0.05" aug 29: 0.02", shelf cloud, wind gust to 25mph or 30mph, possibly brief lightning aug 31: 0.01" sprinkles, light rain AUG 2020 0.47" SEP 2020 Sep 5: high of 96-97, heavy smoke, ash fell from the sky Sep 6: high of 94-95 heavy smoke, ash fell from the sky Sep 7: heavy smoke for part of the day, ash fell from the sky. Low 70's here but 80's and 90's elsewhere Sep 7-8: 0.30" of rain/snow by morning. (little snow accumulation) Sep 8-9: 0.63" water equivalent of snow (and possibly rain), 2.8" (CoCoRAHS) (3.5" on car) sep 9-10: 0.03" water equivalent of snow sep 17: low visibility of 5-10 miles, perhaps a hint of smoke smell sep 26: smell of smoke, strange colors later in day. sep 30: smell of smoke early in the day, red sun later in the day (higher altitude smoke) SEP 2020: 0.96" OCT 2020 Oct 2: smell of smoke in the air. small amounts of ash fell from the sky. low visibility, 5 miles Oct 5: smell of smoke in the air. small amounts of ash fell from the sky. low visibility, 5-15 miles, red sun

It's time for a new thread. Even though there is not too much precipitation in the forecast right now, I am sure we will be discussing mountain snows in just a few weeks. As for now, ensemble means show all the western areas having above normal temperatures until a trough comes into the Pacific NW on about Oct 10-11.

Did Haishen achieve Category 5 status (137 kt or higher)? I'm so intrigued that the US Gulf faced a double storm threat, now, southern Japan to Korea is certainly facing a double large storm threat just 1 week later, or roughly one week.

Possible tornado near Rockford

Radar-estimated rainfall from the hurricane

Radar from first tornado (south of South Pekin IL)

I'm not really questioning NHC methods on any of this, really. Named storms outside of the Main Development Region can be weak, and I'm just having some fun with it. You must admit that T.S. Fay, yesterday and today, developed close to the coast. It developed at or near Cape Hatteras, at 35 degrees north, and headed to the more marginal sea temperatures of New Jersey.

I have a bone to pick with the Atlantic hurricane season and I am going to post it here 1. Tropical Storm Arthur: it existed as a 35 kt tropical storm from 11:00 PM EDT May 16th, until May 19th. Its maximum wind of 45 knots. It tracked northeastward. C'mon Man! 2. Tropical Storm Bertha: it existed from 8:30AM EDT until mid-afternoon on May 27th, as a low intensity tropical storm over water. I then made landfall in South Carolina. C'mon Man! 3. Tropical Storm Cristobal. Had an initial intensity of 35 knots at 4:00 PM CDT June 2nd. It made landfall on Mexico and weakened, It spent June 6th - 7th over the Gulf of Mexico as a 45 knot slopstorm. It made landfall on southeastern Louisiana. The radar images and the wind gusts were barely interesting, yet it caused a "disaster" near the Gulf Coast. 35 mph wind getting you down? I can sneeze faster than 35 mph. Can't deal with rain? The Gulf Coast gets over 60" of rain per year. Then it tracked toward Wisconsin as a tropical mess, with 20mph wind. Come On Man! 4. Tropical Storm Dolly. it had an intensity of 35-40 knots from 1:00 PM AST June 23 to 11:00 PM AST the same day. C'mon Man! 5. Tropical Storm Eduoard. The intensity of this cyclone was just 35-40 knots from 11:00AM AST July 5, until 24 hours later. It tracked eastward. C'mon Man! 6. Tropical Storm Fay: So far, Tropical Storm Fay has had 3 hours at 40 knots, super close to the coast. I don't even know if anybody has measured a 46 mph wind, seriously. C'mon Man!

Some heat records may be broken in the southern plains, Denver, Albuquerque, or Phoenix.

This squall line has already produced several severe wind reports in the last hour, and intensify to produce many more severe wind reports.

possible 2-3" hail with increasing rotation northeast of Great Bend, KS

Up to 7000 J/kg today, and it's only 1:00PM Central

I am a little surprised that they upgraded to moderate risk today (wind, hail only)

Many areas around DFW got around 2" of rain, but some storm cells must have sat over Dallas for a long time.

I was looking at the radar for a thunderstorm in Amarillo, and then I came upon something I hadn't thought about for a long time. Coming from the north, US-87/287 splits into two streets southbound, two streets northbound. It then combines into a single street that is US-87. Then US-87/I-27 goes to the south of town, but US-287 goes east, after combining with I-40 at the large interchange. US-287 then splits away from I-40.