Chinook

Fayetteville, AR says thunderstorm in vicinity, heavy rain, 34 degrees, Bentonville AR has unknown precipitation, Rogers AR (next to Bentonville) has freezing rain. Apparently the Tulsa metro area has freezing drizzle, snow, and unknown precipitation.

On Monday night (Tuesday 00z) the Euro and Canadian show a synoptic snow/ LES combo for Cleveland, and synoptic snow for other parts of Ohio. Yesterday's GFS run(s) had this also. It might be worth checking some model runs on this. Even if the synoptic snowfall doesn't materialize, the GFS says 850 temps will be down to -17C over Lake Erie. So this is massively cold considering October was some +3F above normal.

The Canadian predicts a monster sleet-storm for Kansas. Just to let you know, the Canadian is not always that accurate.

24-hr precip may have been as much as 9-16" near and southwest of Galveston

Maybe Oklahoma City is getting a very wet August? By the way, 87mph wind report near Piedmont, OK. I have heard that there was a probable tornado near Edmond.

Japan's radar web site shows that the eyewall has tracked over Tarama Island recently. This is close to Ishigaki. https://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/

GFS has two storms in the next few days in the Pacific. Typhoon Lekima, farther west, is expected to be 130 kt (Category 4) near Ishigakijima, Japan and also at 80 kt near the Chinese landfall point (JTWC)

Here is a map of the storm reports, up to 647pm eastern. There is one report of 3 waterspouts. Obviously this is a notable severe weather day for this area.

There is a confirmed tornado near Lubbock. The radar images have looked even more impressive after the tornado was reported

Possible tornado at Toone, Tennessee, 60 mi east of Memphis

Several tornado warnings today. As mentioned before, there have been 2 tornado reports near Rienzi and Burnsville MS. Now this may be a tornado in one of the larger towns, Columbus. One tornado report at Artesia.

33dBz and 44mph peak wind gusts for essentially blizzard conditions at Cleveland lakefront area - otherwise, fairly windy (10 mph - 30mph) inland, some areas of 33 dBz on radar.

I love a good cloud pattern

This potential storm system is now getting into the WPC 72-hr snow forecast

Bright-banding on this radar image makes the snow look super-heavy, as opposed to just sort of heavy. Congrats on 5" of snow in the Oklahoma City vicinity. I hope the freezing rain didn't affect any of you negatively.

I drove from Akron to Toledo on Saturday, and I saw snow on the ground to about Sandusky. I think some instability snow existed in the general area.

If the models make a small mistake with the low-level temps, this snow north of OKC turns to ice or rain. The low-level profile here from the GFS is good for heavy snow, it's just so close to 0*C up to 700mb. The 500mb heights are so high, that the 1000-500mb critical thickness line is in Kansas, about 10 miles north of Wichita. We have a long time before this is a short-range forecast, so the models will obviously take some time to resolve the exact rain/snow line (or freezing rain/sleet profile, if that exists.)

If anybody wants to *fantasize* for Oklahoma based on 1988, check out this Jan 4th-7th 1988 storm total plot! I think I see an 18" contour in there.

As of right now, the models have something very interesting for Oklahoma in about a week

I posted a Euro image like this 6 or 7 days ago -- and a rather serious storm did develop today. The 500mb is quite as closed off today as that particular run of the Euro 6 or 7 days ago, but it did sniff out a major low pressure in the region. Now, look at this for next Saturday. The Euro precip shows rain in MO and snow for Nebraska and north KS.

Kansas City airport now has blizzard or near-blizzard conditions KMCI 251829Z 01026G42KT 1/4SM R19R/2200V2600FT SN FZFG OVC008 M01/M02 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 01042/1826 P0002 T10111022 KMCI 251809Z 01027G39KT 1/4SM R19R/2200V3000FT SN FZFG SCT007 OVC011 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 01042/1758 P0000 T10061017 KMCI 251801Z 01027G42KT 1/2SM R19R/2800V3000FT SN FZFG BKN007 OVC010 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 01042/1758 P0000 T10061017 KMCI 251755Z 01028G42KT 1/4SM R19R/2800V3500FT SN FZFG SCT006 OVC010 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1754 P0000 T10061017 KMCI 251753Z 36025G42KT 1/2SM R19R/2800V3500FT SN FZFG BKN006 OVC010 M01/M02 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 02042/1747 SLP031 931003 P0010 60027 T10061017 10050 21006 50005 KMCI 251739Z 01021G34KT 1/2SM R19R/2600V3500FT SN FG BKN006 OVC010 00/M01 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/1719 P0008 T00001011 KMCI 251725Z 01021G36KT 1/4SM R19R/2200V2800FT +SN FG BKN006 OVC010 00/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 02036/1719 P0006 T00001011

Well, you could go 3.42 years without a tornado watch, as DTX has.

Yes, this breaks a streak for Kansas City CWA. # of days since winter storm warning, as of yesterday, 11/23

The latest Euro says this storm cuts off as it forms in Colorado and Kansas. The QPF shows heavy snow in Kansas and Nebraska, like 1.2" water equivalent of snow at Goodland KS. It will be interesting to see if this type of extreme is shown if we get this storm within 72-96 hours. Right now, it's 6.5 days out, essentially.

Central Texas rainfall of over 7" caused some rivers to go into flood stage