Chinook

Storm with possible 0.75"-1.0" hail headed toward DIA

We could get some scattered severe thunderstorms near here tomorrow. NAM profiles show 0-6km shear values of 40 kts with some decent CAPE. July 2020 was Denver's warmest month since July 2012, but Fort Collins was not quite that bad.

Some thunderstorm structure, sort of

Yesterday (7/31) I was jogging at about 7:30, and I saw that Long's Peak in the distance looked like a slightly dark silhouette on a background of yellow light, below a dark cloud. It was raining in between me and Long's Peak. Today (8/1) my area had a thunderstorm in mid-afternoon. It looked like there was a decent hailstorm was northwest of Fort Collins at about 7:20PM. That storm weakened considerably as it approached Loveland. Edit: I got 0.35" for the day. I'm not sure if much of this fell at nighttime. That's almost as much as last month.

This was posted by NWS-CLE

Yesterday, my area had a high of 80 and a rainfall of 0.18" with a few moments of lightning/thunder/heavy rain. So that brings my monthly rain to about 0.44", which is not as pathetic as I might have thought, but still pretty low.

On July 26th, my area had a trace to 0.01". On July 28th, we had clouds and sprinkles early afternoon, then sunny, then we had some rain and weak thunder at 6:45 - 7:15PM. It was about 0.01" to 0.10", possibly higher in areas of Loveland. Then, we had a partly sunny sunset, with very orange clouds, and some of the rain to the east was highlighted with orange light. I might have been able to see the stars and the comet after sunset, but I didn't really look. For far western areas-- the Phoenix area and the Columbia River (interior desert) area both have Excessive Heat Warnings soon, with temperatures up to 109 at the Columbia River.

My place has had minor rainfall over the past few days. My total for the month may be around 0.14"-0.20". July 22, an evening storm with light-moderate rain, 0.02" and little lightning. July 24th, trace to 0.01". July 25th, 0.03" or 0.04". July 26th, possibly another trace to 0.06". Tonight (July 26th) the clouds cleared away, and I could see Comet Neowise through binoculars. It has moved up and to the left of where I saw it a few days ago. I could barely see the comet's tail with binoculars. I think this may be the last time I get a look at it, if it is getting dimmer, and if there are a few more days of evening clouds. Interesting note. I was checking the satellite images today, and the GOES-16 data feeds seem to have disappeared from about 2:36PM to 9:15PM. I don't know exactly what happened. I'm glad this didn't happen yesterday, because most of the USA was interested the satellite images of Hurricane Hanna.

Radar-estimated rainfall from the hurricane

I really didn't expect this hurricane to be at a 90mph intensity near Hawaii, but here it is

Tonight, there were some rain showers to my west at 6:00-7:00, then a lot of the clouds cleared away at about 8:00. Then, I tried to look for the comet at 9:00-9:30, but some patchy altocumulus were blocking the view. Tomorrow, models have a chance of showers and thunderstorms near here. Apparently the driving factor will be high precipitable water, but not high CAPE.

Good news: it looks like the Southwest monsoon is kicking into gear, with models and model ensembles showing much higher precipitation over the next 7-10 days along the AZ/NM border and into Colorado.

This is the primary NOAA web page for storm-centered satellite pictures... https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html -- better web page -- https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php

Toledo is currently on track to have the warmest July in history, as the monthly average from July 1st - 21st is 79.3 degrees. The top 2 warmest July months are 79.0 (1921) and 78.8 (2011).

Today, I got to see the comet again. Skies were more hazy in the afternoon and evening due to humidity. To the north, there was this:

I got in pictures of the sunset tonight and last night. Tonight, I finally saw the comet. It seems to be about 10 degrees below the cup of the big dipper. It's a little bit visible to the naked eye, and I used binoculars. edit: by the way, we could get scattered thunderstorms tomorrow, with dew points possibly up around 60. Maybe there will be something near Denver.

My parents near Toledo had at least a 40 or 50 mph wind knock over a patio table/umbrella with a thunderstorm yesterday. Toledo Express Airport got 1.11" yesterday, and this makes 2.58" for this month. That thunderstorm popped up in advance of the MCS area, and dropped 1"-1.5" in the Toledo area., south of downtown. KTOL is probably one of the only airports in Ohio with above normal preciptation this month. More than 90% of Ohio is below average precipitation for this month. The area is also 5.5 degrees F above average for this month. Perhaps it will be a top-5 warmest July.

Elizabeth City, NC is at 98/78/116 right now, and Edenton NC is at 112 heat index. I don't ever think I've heard of an East Coast heat index over 116.

I also have not been able to see the comet. I am bordering on being very mad at the weather Tornado warning near the small towns of Paoli and Haxtun, Colorado

My hand analysis of heat index, from 95 to 110. I made a little mistake near Chicago. I could have put some of the yellow 100-degree contour down by Paducah KY.

Radar from first tornado (south of South Pekin IL)

Denver is already 4.7F above normal for this month. Fort Collins- CSU is 2.4F or higher, with one day of missing data. Today, my area was around 95, when a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for a storm that seemed kind of weak on radar over the mountains. The wind picked up to 40 mph here, my area only got sprinkles. The temperature dropped to around 80 for the late afternoon. Some severe wind reports were close to the Wyoming border. Tomorrow, the NAM has unrealistically low temps, that is, 58 degrees at noon. I don't think it will be that cool. NWS says a high of 80 tomorrow, then getting back to the 90's on Thursday. I have not yet seen that new comet in the evening sky. I think it's in the evening right now.

NWS Phoenix

I took a walk a few minutes ago. Some mixed clouds in the sky made for very nice sunset colors. We still have some breezes of 10-15 mph at sunset with temperatures over 80, maybe 85 at 8:00PM. High temperatures were 94-96 for most areas near here and in Denver. In the afternoon we had varying winds of 10-25mph in the region. Tomorrow, mid- 90's should continue for northern Colorado, with 100-105 in southeast Colorado. Models show a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, quite possibly with very low total QPF.

I'm not really questioning NHC methods on any of this, really. Named storms outside of the Main Development Region can be weak, and I'm just having some fun with it. You must admit that T.S. Fay, yesterday and today, developed close to the coast. It developed at or near Cape Hatteras, at 35 degrees north, and headed to the more marginal sea temperatures of New Jersey.