Chinook

Somebody already has 21" and there's a severe thunderstorm warning next to some 30 degree temperatures

The storm is getting going with moderate snow in SD, MN, ND. It seems like snow-virga is in Wisconsin and Michigan. This view gives the warnings that are most current, so not all the blizzard warnings show up.

This is perhaps a once-in-a-generation amount of blizzard warnings for March, in terms of area (not in Rockies)

sunset from 3/12

some snow reports

78mph wind gust in Fort Collins

I've never seen a 56 degree drop east of the Appalachians

my place just dropped from 70 to 56 with the lake cool air

Detroit broke the record already (75 vs 70)

WRF-ARW and WRF-NSSL have a similar look for severe cells in N IL tomorrow

This is pretty cool

Texas? Here's the NAM forecast for tornado parameter. There's going to be a high-shear environment for supercells near and south of the warm front, and possibly cold front. Models differ on how much the warm front moves toward the cold lakes (like me.)

That's some white on the rooftops that I haven't seen on this web cam much

New winter weather advisory/winter storm watches over 6000 ft

large hail and flooding near Dallas

I recently looked at the SREF on the SPC web site, like last week or something. There is a big thing that said the SREF will be discontinued later in 2026. After posting this on a different weather discussion forum, I've been informed that the NAM is going to be discontinued at some time. Here is a statement released in 2025. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-41_RRFS_legacy_model_cessation.pdf other information from 2025 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-73_Proposed_Termination_NAM_MOS.pdf I thought the NAM would keep going forever, as it has been known as the premiere mesoscale model for the USA. I was thinking that it feeds the 3-km NAM with boundary data and/or some other important data. Apparently not. I'm a little confused as to what convection-allowing model(s), other than the NAM, might disappear and appear in the PivotalWeather and other web sites. A little piece of me says, yeah when the GFS says of 500 J/kg of CAPE at the location of the next big severe weather outbreak, then you turn to a model that will actually calculate the CAPE. (Am I crazy?)

Chance of rain? What insanity is this?

my loops for January 25, 2026 storm and the most recent blizzard https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_23_2026_GFS_surface_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_21_2026_GFS_500mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_21_2026_GFS_surface_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_22_2026_surface_loop.html

almost 100% sunny and in the 50's here

This one is really cool, too

Glacier NP Yellowstone Mammoth Hot Springs (Travertine Terraces)

This is directly from the SPC. They are going to use this new, potentially confusing, system for the SPC outlooks in about a week. Hopefully it's not terribly confusing. The chance for EF2+ tornadoes goes way with the hatching groups. The values are 7% of tornadoes are EF2+ at "no hatching," increasing to a value of 40% at CIG-3. There are two levels for hail. That's slightly confusing. Probability values of 75% and 90% for wind probability outlooks have been added. I am going to call these, little dashies, northwest-leaning lines, and hatching. (I made that up.)

Maybe the NY Jets front office is in charge of snow measurement.