roardog

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He comes across as a dick for sure but he does have a point, this is a massive DWKW and very strong ongoing WWB that is going to result in very substantial warming, strengthening and further coupling of this El Niño event over the next month+

 

 

 

 

Calling it massive might be a little bit of exaggeration. 

Isn’t there also a lag when it comes to Enso impacting North America?

How about we just build snowcover in Canada this year and see how that works out. 

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

warm Novembers are quite common when there's decent Nino forcing. I also expect December to be quite warm with troughs diving into the west

 

That composite looks like it has a low west of Alaska while the current look has a huge Nina like ridge. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

In that case, I guess we shouldn’t even consider your opinion and just stick to the numerous meteorologists that post in this thread. 

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Blocking near Hudson Bay is classic La Niña in October. But this is even extreme for a La Niña. Somewhat similar to the La Niña in 2021. So not a very Nino-like North American pattern this October.

 

 

But there were higher heights in the west with no SE ridge so there’s still only certain aspects that are Nina like. Still seems to be a forcing battle going on. 

When it comes down to it, the only metric showing a strong Nino is the ONI. Every other metric would have you believe this is a weak to moderate Nino. Even the long streak of negative SOI only has the 90 day average at -11 so while the streak is impressive, the average is not in “strong Nino” territory. The underlying ocean warming has to be  playing a role in distorting( if that’s the right word I’m looking for) the look of this event. 

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Expect more WWA that will be for 4-6" and people complaining that there isn't a warning out. Idk why there was a change though, doesn't make much sense.

It seems silly to have U.P. counties that have a 6 inch criteria bordering counties with an 8 inch criteria. That is unnecessarily confusing in my opinion. 

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Have you seen an OISST update for Nino 3.4 anywhere? It’s stuck on 10/17 on cyclonicwx. Just read a tweet saying it’s up over +1.83C on OISST but I can’t confirm that. It did jump well over +1.7C on CRW

It’s updated on Cyclonicwx. It’s at 1.69 today.

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In which tweet does he “hint” that? Can you post it?

It’s the tweet you posted. lol

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Buildup would be advancement look at the chart. Its awful, the lowest out of all those years

My point is that if it advances rapidly at the end of the month like Judah hints at, you would want it to start low. 

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

For those who follow it (I don’t anymore) but Siberian snowcover buildup through today has been really, really awful. This is Judah’s update from 10/10 and it hasn’t gotten any better since, looks bad for at least the next week too

I always thought it was the advancement during the month of October that mattered not the overall snow cover for the month. 

Just now, Terpeast said:

Maybe. I could care less what it does now. Starting Dec-Jan is when it really matters. 

I guess that’s the point I was making too. It always strengthens in the Fall so are we supposed to be surprised or alarmed by this?

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Doesn’t the polar vortex always strengthen this time of year?

Nino 4 up to +1.5 today. 

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

It has slowed down some in recent weeks, but I still believe it will go super because Paul Roundy said so. If Paul Roundy backs down then I’ll back down too.

Has Paul Roundy said anything recently about believing it will go super? 

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yes

He goes from making snow to painting grass. 

27 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

We are a few degrees of warming away from slashing our average snow totals in half man.  Too bad you can't see that.

Aren’t you the person that used to make snow to cover your yard?

3 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

arctic is warming faster than here by far.  still getting above freezing in barrow alaska.

They haven’t been above freezing in at least the last 3 days and the highest forecasted temp there this week is 33. Their normal high is 28, so it only has to be 5 degrees above normal to be above freezing. 

Just now, hardypalmguy said:

and then it's gone the next day.  fine by me.  melt it.

Yeah but the point is that December, January and February could all be record warm months overall in Milwaukee and it could and probably would snow some in all 3 of those months. So, it’s impossible for Brian to answer your original question. 

22 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Seasonable temps are above freezing until end of December.  So any slight above plus warm lake influence will be rainers here.

The month could be +15 and there could still be a blizzard. All it takes is a cold day or two in a “warm” month of December to get snow. 

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

@roardog and others: 12Z GFS suite is another run supporting another Canadian shot deep down into the E US the last week of Oct. Thus,BN October chances for much of E US continue to increase. Euto Weeklies will be out a little later.

There seems to be pretty good agreement right now among the euro, Canadian and GFS ensembles of quite a cold shot between day 10 and day 15. Meanwhile the next 10 days aren’t exactly going to be warm either. 

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have a 95-year old house, lots of windows, and no 4 ft of insulation  in the attic lol. But again, see above post. I have no issue with running the heat now, itll be on the next 7 months, why wait? Just like with the AC, set a temp and it will run when it needs to run.

The way I look at it is unless you’re really struggling with money, there’s no reason to be uncomfortable in your home. 

4 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Warm enough to keep it liquid thru December and most of Jan?

There are some posters in this sub forum that seem to be delusional about their climo and you win top prize for that. Actually I’m sure your act is more about trying to get people riled up than not understanding climo. The hard work it would take to grow palm trees in Wisconsin does make me wonder though. lol

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 But COD MJO (especially W half of COD) during El Niño correlates more to cold than warm in the E US. Most of the highlighted periods within the 15 MJO charts I posted had majority COD. So, that’s actually very good news for those hoping for a cold E US that you’re talking about COD possibly being frequent this winter.

I'm starting to think the cold eastern US October that you're hoping for is a possibility.