roardog

OISST took a nose dive in 1+2 on the daily readings recently. That’s strange because CDAS did that last week but then came back up. Now CDAS is warmer than OISST. Also Enso 4 is getting above 1.0 now on OISST. This is definitely a basin wide Nino at this point.

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

This is the 1st time I’ve ever shown the Coral Reef on here you vapid little airhead. The OISST is over +1.3C you fool. It’s almost as funny as how you keep posting the CFS showing region 1+2 plunging into a La Niña over and over for the last 5 months in a row, meanwhile it’s warmed to historic levels. Troll. And I know you have 2 accounts on here, your other alter ego is “Thunderbolt”. You’re not even smart enough to do a good job covering it up

I’ve been on these boards for 23 years with the same screen name. I’m not thunderbolt. lol

1 hour ago, griteater said:

I thought this was a pretty hilarious tweet from Stanfield.  His VP loop runs from early-June to mid-August, and in the big picture, there is almost no change occurring (as opposed to some big movement toward a big El Nino).  The +VP in the E Indian Ocean and over S America just pulses in strength but remains locked in the same location.  Same for the -VP in the W Pac.  The -VP pulsing up in recent days in the E Pac is associated with the tropical cyclones there and not representative of some low frequency East El Nino forcing (could it go in that direction over time, yes, but it's not there right now).  Also, the +VP at the end of the loop in the W Indian Ocean is not representative of a +IOD / El Nino pattern.  A +IOD / El Nino pattern would have uplift (-VP) in the W Indian Ocean.

For some reason, there seems to be a group of twitter posters that are just dying to push this El Nino forward....and/or that like pushing the narrative that this is a 97-98 type redo that is destined to be a winter fail in the East.

 

It’s like last year when twitter was going bonkers about how strong the Nina was going to be last winter. In the end, it peaked at -1.0.

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

It is irrelevant though. When all is said and done, the strength of this Nino will be determined by the ERSST tri monthly peak. Coral Reed watch is no more relevant than the cool CDAS.

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Either way, it does appear that we may well be into a strong El Niño by the end of this month. Coral Reef Watch has region 3.4 up to +1.44C and warming 

It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers. 

6 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

I hope everyone has stocked up on baby powder for next week.  Record level heat incoming.

No. You’ll be lucky to get one “hot” day there. Maybe Saturday?

The CFS has actually been cooling some recently. The latest runs of the bias correction is closer to a 1.5 peak now(the blue colored lines).

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The Nino strength isn’t going as planned if we now have to use the GFS fantasy canes as a measurement of Nino strength. lol

The SOI popped back positive today. How is that looking for the next week or so? 

Part of the problem is the very small sample size of super Nino. The other problem is the background warming that has taken place even since ‘15-‘16. Even the winter of ‘15-‘16 had a major cold shot in the NE part of the country. That alone is much different than ‘97-‘98 or ‘82-‘83. I think the warmer world makes it even tougher than it already is for the models to predict which in turn makes it harder for human forecasters because when the models go against your forecast, it makes you second guess it.

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Isn’t that similar to what happened in 1925?

I’m guessing the very warm Atlantic waters are helping New England in recent years too. 

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am suspicious about how those New England departures came to be.  

I suspect the ballast was in the diurnal lows. 

I was going to say, how did Maine have the hottest July on record? I wasn’t paying that close attention to that area but it couldn’t have been that hot in Maine with the pattern we had in July. Maine must have had record high dewpoints for the month or something. 

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The epic, monumental fail by the CFS since March of insisting on dropping regions 1+2 and 3 like a rock continues…..

The models have just been bad all around. They keep trying to move the warmth out of 1+2 and into 3.4, probably because they have been showing a favorable pattern to warm 3.4 in the mid range all summer that never comes to fruition. I kind of feel like if 3.4 does finally start to take off that 1.2 will then cool because the warmth will move out of that area. The subsurface under 3.4 isn’t that impressive. 

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Lots of red and orange on this map.

I was going to ask how the Great Lakes could be that far above normal when it hasn’t even been a hot summer but then I looked closely and realized they’re using 1971-2000 as a base.

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Is the strongest WWB since early June really saying much though? 

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm going with 100 inches NYC

Over the course of how many years? lol

22 minutes ago, frostfern said:

El Nino pretty much guarantees a boring winter though.  At least the early half, though who knows these days where tornado outbreaks sometimes happen mid-winter.

Usually but who knows. There’s been some decent El Niño Novembers though. It’s usually December that’s the worst but the last 3 Nina Decembers haven’t exactly been stellar either.

38 minutes ago, frostfern said:

There’s not much in the way of exciting weather to look forward to until this El Nino finally flips to Nina.

It was La Niña for the last 3 years. I don’t recall much to look forward to then either except for maybe late Jan/Feb ‘21.

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Whereas a week ago Nino 1+2 fell to +2.9 from a +3.5 peak six days earlier, it has risen back to +3.3 today (OISST).

Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone

You were talking about the mean. I thought you were saying their model had a 2.2 peak. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given that we are about to start August with a daily reading of +1.3C, I don’t think it reaching or surpassing strong status by 8/31 is that far fetched….

Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August. 

CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile.