roardog

We really need an almost perfect setup to beat that 2012 record. The cool June and continued strong +AO and cool isn't going to cut it regardless of the May melt pond data IMO.

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

23-24 was a super el nino? I thought our last one was in 15-16?

It looks like GAWX posted that it peaked at +1.95. I thought it peaked at +2.0. Maybe what I saw was rounded up? I guess 1.95 isn’t technically super. 

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks to the last 10 days of the month being the warmest last 10 days of June on record (despite a max of "only" 95), June at Detroit ended up tying with 1994 for 11th warmest June on record. To put it into perspective, as of June 20th, it was ranking 64th coldest.

This is off topic but I have memories of a hot June in the mid 1990s and I always feel like I’m remembering 1995 because it was a hot summer. However, I don’t think June of 1995 was actually warm. I wonder if I’m remembering 1994. 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

Two of those years on that composite are super Nino(23-24 and 82-83) so that probably skews it some. 

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Departures from normal aren't calculated from a single point in time. The map has a bunch of places "below normal" that were being cooled off from thundershowers in the south, for instance. That's a meaningless statistic. Funny how all the areas shown as 30 below normal had actual daily departures a small fraction of that, while the areas shown as 15-20 degrees above normal literally were 15-20 degrees above normal. But carry on.

I think the overall point of posting that map was to show that despite being hot in the Midwest and northeast, the country had a lot of well below normal temperatures in the western half on Sunday. There was some impressive chill out there even if the daily departures weren’t -30.

19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Find me a single place that was actually 20 to 30 degrees below normal in the U.S. and then I'll believe that nonsense. What a joke.

If I’m reading that map correctly, it looks like those are temp departures at 21Z Jun 22nd. What don’t you believe about that map? I looked up Cut Bank, Montana for example and they were in the mid 40s at 21Z Sunday and their normal temps are in the low 70s. So that looks pretty accurate to me. 

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Several records set or tied today, including Cleveland, Detroit, Toledo, Saginaw, and Mansfield. The 96F reading at Saginaw was the warmest of any day in the past 13 years.

The lower dewpoints today allowed the temps to get higher. I see Oscoda had a 98.6F reading today. I’m not sure what the official high was there. They’re helped by downsloping though.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. The nights have been very warm and muggy. The high temps have underachieved each day, although you and I discussed that as a likely scenario before the heatwave even started.

Yesterday was surprisingly more oppressive than today. I expected today to be the worst. 

Yeah. The dewpoints fell into the mid to upper 60s today. I think the sky was literally cloud free today. It must be very strongly capped.

The impressive part of this heat wave is just the atmosphere staying well mixed during the night causing such high minimums. The fact that we're so close to the most daylight of the year probably helps too. The high temps haven't been anything special at all around here.

Another thing is when the dewpoints get that high, there’s usually a lot of cumulus development even with a capped atmosphere which also helps limit the highs. Some of the hottest actual temps I can remember come with dewpoints at or below 60. I think that also helps to limit the cumulus development leading to higher temps. It’s just really hard to get extreme highs with dewpoints well into the 70s. Just look at Florida all summer.

8 minutes ago, Baum said:

on cue:A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS   
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND POTENTIALLY SEND A MCS WEST TO EAST   
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER WISCONSIN. WHILE BOTH   
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY, THERE IS STILL   
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS STORMS TRACK AND ITS INFLUENCE IN NORTHERN   
ILLINOIS. FOR NOW, IT WAS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY EXCESSIVE   
HEAT PRODUCTS FOR THE WEEKEND. -LOT

How many times have we seen a MCS two hundred miles to the north send a lake enhanced outflow down the lake causing a NE wind and big drop in temps? It happens over here with Lake Huron too. You guys should be in the clear from that by Sunday though. 

20 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Generally speaking from heat-waves in the past with dews that high, the temps seem to under-perform a bit around here. Be interesting to see if that will happen this time around, especially after this deluge. 

Yeah. If dewpoints really are in the mid 70s, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of low 90s for highs. Nights on the other hand are going to be awful. 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah...trust me, cold/snow are absolutely my #1. Hell the main reason I follow this thread is because as soon as one winter/snow season ends im looking forward to the next one. But heat records are interesting too, and it is summer. 

I have looked up tons of old newspaper articles online (I have an account where I can look at any Detroit Free Press since 1837), and i can assure you that heat, cold, snow/lack of snow etc were just as big of news stories then as they are now. The one huge difference is that back then anomalous weather was noted as such...but it wasn't blamed on anything. It was just a given that the weather always changes. And that fact, which will never change regardless of cc, is something that is sadly missed by some in the modern era.

Yeah. It seems people that don’t follow the weather always have this misconception that drastic daily changes in weather and or extreme heat or cold never used to happen. It doesn’t help when any media story about the weather basically reinforces that idea.

23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

would take the 12z euro

Without looking back at the specifics from that time I feel like the 12Z euro almost has a July ‘95 look to it.

5 hours ago, Stebo said:

Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well.

Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

This year looks different though in the sense that the western US is going to be very cool with maybe some significant snow in the mountains.

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Plus the storm track was pure La Niña through the Great Lakes. This could have been a great winter for Eastern snows if the WPAC and Jet stream influence was more muted. 

 

You keep saying this but outside of the lake effect snow belts, this area had a dry winter which is very uncharacteristic of a Nina winter. The Nina winters that are dry here are usually the ones that have the giant vortex over Alaska that keeps the entire country mild. This past winter obviously didn’t have anything close to that. 

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It also took several years for the PDO to shift follwing the strong EL Nino of 1972-1973, so that make sense.

Yeah. We saw the -PDO hold in what was I believe technically a super Nino. So it’s not like it’s never happened before during a very -PDO regime.

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

I don’t know about all of that, but I do know that I’m enjoying one above normal day on the lake today before the weather turns to shit for the rest of the foreseeable future. 
 

 

At least we're now in the short 3 months or so where even normal temperatures are pleasant.

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would take 2015-16 anyday over 1982-83 here. It was much snowier, tho still obviously a warm winter.

82-83 and 97-98 are what I think of when I think of a very strong El Niño winter in the Midwest. I actually had quite a bit of wet 32F snow in 15-16, it just always started melting shortly after it fell. 15-16 was missing the “dry” part of a strong Nino around here.

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My favorite going back to 1990:

2013-14

2010-11

2007-08

2014-15

2004-05

2002-03

2008-09

2017-18

2000-01

1998-99

 

I wouldn’t think 98-99 would be your kind of winter. Some great snow depth  in January for awhile but it certainly wasn’t a cold, snow covered winter overall. I would actually put this past winter above 98-99 for overall wintery feel. 

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I posted this in the Spring Banter thread. Very cold this morning, with several record lows. And some locations not far from all-time monthly record lows. Have to wonder if the widespread pall of Canadian smoke, which somehow has seemingly spread to multiple continents, isn't causing a volcanic winter like effect?

 

That doesn't seem likely since the fires haven't been burning that long and I would think any smoke thick enough to slow daytime heating would also reduce radiational cooling. I think it's just been a long time since we've seen a pattern that can deliver this cold and dry of an airmass in June. We've grown accustomed to what seems like consistent warmth and high dewpoints during the three summer months in recent years or even decades. However, history says this chilly type of airmass does happen sometimes in early June. 

22 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Haven't found an explanation for what caused all of the fires. Weren't you asking just a few days ago? This should be a moist and green time of the year. Seems odd for uncontrolled fires to be breaking out in early June, rather than earlier in the spring or in the late summer/early fall, no?

Yeah but I guess I wasn't thinking government conspiracy. 

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive cold this morning, as low as 35F in southeast Ohio and 32F in suburban Pittsburgh. I am speculating on my X account as to whether these Canadian wildfires could be causing a volcanic winter type scenario. AI suggests "natural" wildfires should have a net warming effect, but that begs the question as to whether these fires are natural. Weird optical phenomena (red sun, visible sunspots) are being observed on multiple continents from all of the lofted smoke.

 

lol. what?

What is up with these Canadian wildfires every May? I understand a couple of years ago when Canada had that record or near record warm May. That would obviously cause the snow to melt and everything to dry up but not greened up yet. This year, the majority of Canada has had below normal temperatures this month. It seems all it takes anymore is a few “warm” days and you have spontaneous combustion of the forests. Are warmer and shorter winters causing more vegetation that then goes dormant for the winter allowing more fuel for the fires?