roardog

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 on UKMO OSTIA as of 11-15 is +1.56.  That's the lowest value since Oct 12

Something is still not adding up here. Coral Reef Watch is also down to +1.5 and falling as of yesterday. Throughout the entire year, Coral Reef Watch has been running warmer than OISST. Now we are supposed to believe it’s suddenly running .30-.35 cooler? That doesn’t make much sense to me. 

32 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, I guess he did say "snow" not snowstorm. My bad. 

I think the reason I remember it is because there was lake enhancement here which made it a little more memorable. It wasn’t anything too extreme but I remember a few inches. 

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

OMG yes! How did I not remember the 04 early storm. Was only 4-5" in Marshall but there were places up to a foot in SWMI. Another reason 04-05 rocked across SMI. (see my post in the winter thread for more hype). First event I remember in 07-08 was the mid-Dec system. Will have to check out whatever missed me earlier on.

It could be 2008 I’m thinking of that had the thanksgiving Day snow. Without looking it up, I can’t remember which year it was.

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I have seen several times this event where CRW has been much cooler in region 1+2 than OISST, same story in region 3. That is definitely the correct OISST value on WCS that @Gawx posted. In addition, the SOI is now down into the -20’s

It’ll be interesting to see what tomorrow’s CPC anomaly is.  

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s continuing to warm, would not surprise me if it’s over +1.9C now

Why is Coral Reef Watch only at +1.62 as of yesterday? CRW has never been cooler( and especially by that much) than OISST since I’ve been following it. Something doesn’t add up. 

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

None too soon for the h300 fantasy snow maps. Thanksgivings in the early 00's featured several cold and or snowy ones iirc. Vividly recall 2005 when my fam met in Frankenmuth for a holiday dinner and it was like 5F WC's. 

2004 had a snowstorm here the evening before Thanksgiving. There was even thunder snow with it. I think it was 2007 that also had a snowstorm. 

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the catch is that that is a Nino pattern features a trough in the west

Isn't it usually an Aleutian trough that extends to the western US flooding the the US with pacific air though? The pattern depicted looks like it would actually drive arctic air into the US west of the Mississippi River. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Fwiw, the Euro Weeklies are warm in the E US through at least 12/25/23 and with no sign of an impending change fwiw.

They don’t look like a warm Nino December pattern though. It has an Aleutian ridge and deep western US trough. More of a Nina like pattern than anything. 

1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said:

He says we aren’t warming. We are. I’ve posted data. He’s in denial.

I’ve never seen him say we aren’t warming. The problem is that you greatly exaggerate the warming as a way to troll as that is obviously your main goal here.

11 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

For Michsnowfreak and other deniers on our warmer and wetter climate that is happening fast in last 20 years. Stop seeing the extra snow which is only happening because we have good temp padding (to start) in a warmer and wetter climate. Once we reach that tipping point of liquid to frozen predominance we will quickly crash in yearly snowfall totals in the future.

MKE avg high in January is already tickling 32. That means December and February already average way into the 30s for highs. Those months will be the first to see snow averages crash.

https://fox11online.com/weather/weather-stories/warmer-wetter-winters-a-preview-to-patrick-powells-2023-winter-weather-forecast-national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration-arctic-green-bay-jet-stream?fbclid=IwAR0Cyuq69rWJu1DC-J9IEn5W54buYmw_DsCKH5fDEt6VDR3JHuZPFvc_aVo_aem_ASQvL06fjJVw8wd3pqVUVS7SxyweszA_ShuMkeQoVH-4oQ82q3hLsd2SzJp4_wJeFvI

I can’t speak for Michsnowfreak but I’m pretty sure the only thing he denies is your greatly exaggerated and ridiculous claims that have no support while he backs up everything he says with actual data. 

32 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

 

I know it’s gentle trolling but if the Great Lakes region could ever support palms we’d be looking at global crop failure and famine.

Humans would probably be wiped out by the time palms were growing in Marquette. lol

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

BTW you realize cromartie was lying. There is no way he was done raking by mid-October in the 1990s and now not until late-November. I guess somehow magically his leaves fell 2-3 weeks earlier in the 1990s and now fall 2-3 weeks later than they do at a similar climate here in SE MI. 

I was born in the 1970s and I can tell you that other than the slight year to year variation, both peak fall colors and spring leaf out has changed very little. There were always a lot of leaves on the ground on Halloween night when I was a kid, the same as it is now. 
 Palm dude probably used to run his snow maker in August in the ‘90s because it used to be cold back then. 

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Terrible drought conditions in S Central PA. Not that bad too far to my north, but we missed a lot of the summer storms. The lake in Codorus State Park has a shoreline more than 200' from its normal location. 

Warm season drought is so dependent on convection that you can have a severe drought 50 miles away from flooding.

So in this thread, we have Bluewave pointing out how we have/had a La Niña like atmospheric response, meanwhile Snowman19 is posting tweets that say we have an atmospheric response of a well coupled El Niño. Talk about conflicting and completely opposite opinions. lol

Just now, snowman19 said:

Better than your CFS forecasts of region 1+2 being in a La Niña by now lmfaoooo

The CFS isn't mine. I don't run it. However, the CFS actually seems to have the right general idea with 1+2, it just cooled it too much, too soon. I think it was down to +2.0 on yesterday's update.

On 10/24/2023 at 3:44 PM, snowman19 said:

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well

This forecast isn't looking great right now.

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Where is all the cold though? The SE is “cool/cold” from solar irradiance, clouds, precip from the roaring STJ overhead

 

 

 

 

I thought everyone knew by now that the long range models are terrible with 2M temp anomalies. Canada was “scorching” in 09-10 yet most of the US had a cold winter. 

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it’s obvious at this point that it’s going to exceed +2.0C

The map in his tweet says Coral Reef Watch in the bottom right corner. lol

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Closing in on +1.9C and more warming in the coming weeks, AND the DWKW has yet to be realized….
 

 

 

 

 

Even the warm Coral Reef Watch that you like to show only has it at +1.74 as of yesterday. OISST hasn't been updating but it's most likely lower than that.

1.2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time on the OISST daily today at +2.1 while region 4 is on the rise again at +1.3. So while this obviously won’t be a Modoki Nino by definition, if 1.2 continues to fall and 4 continues as high as it’s been it should make for some difficult long range forecasts. 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The extended Euro ensemble has consistently for many days been forecasting a stronger than average strength SPV in Nov (peaking Nov 11th in near record high territory) followed by a weakening SPV to near neutral late in Nov.

 For the last week or so, it has also been forecasting the weakening to then progress to a significantly below average strength SPV by mid Dec, which implies a good shot at a -AO  then along with a better than average potential in mid Dec for an SSW. But keep in mind that sudden SSWs are uncommon in Dec as peak season doesn’t even start til mid Jan. So, this could very well end up as a -AO/weaker than average SPV without an SSW, which would still be a cold signal for the E US especially if a -NAO could somehow accompany it:

I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually? 

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

2023’s ASO SOI looks to come in near -11. To compare:

2018: -4

2015: -19

2014: -8

2009: -5

2006: -12

2004: -4

2002: -10

1997: -16

1994: -12

1991: -12

1987: -10

1986: -2

1982: -21

1979: -2

1977: -11

1976: -7

1972: -11

1969: -9

1968: -1

1965: -12

1963: -8

1958: +1

1957: -6

1953: -10

1951: -10

- The six moderate El Niños since 1951-2 averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

 

  Based on the above: whereas 2023’s -11 ASO SOI isn’t “representative” of a super-strong, it is easily representative of strong (actually border between strong and super) and thus solidly translates to that form of atmospheric coupling during ASO imho.

 

I guess if weak averages -7 and strong averages -8, there isn’t a whole lot of value in this measurement when it comes to seasonal forecasting. 

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Put the SOI aside. Did you read the rest of my post? Can you address my other points? And the length of this negative SOI run has certainly been very impressive, @GaWx did a write up on it several days ago

I didn’t say I disagreed with any of it. 

13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Eric is very,very good! He's a good dude as well; however, if you don't see it exactly the way he does you're a blatant fo in his eyes,lol. 

 

 A lot of his rhetoric is aimed at Bastardi.

I would think that maybe someone in his position could show some restraint and maturity and not take part in throwing bombs at others. I don’t follow anyone on Twitter or even have a twitter account but I’ve seen Bastardi tweets posted where he’s basically doing the same thing except he’s actually naming who he’s attacking and not being a coward about it. Oh well, I guess that’s how we live these days. lol

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

A -10 ninety day averaged SOI is nothing to write home about. It’s more representative of a weak Nino than a strong one.