roardog

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August. 

CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The BOM is very clearly running too warm so far but as you pointed out the JMA has also been cool biased. I still think my guesstimate of this event hitting a peak between +2.1C - +2.5C in November/December is reasonable and well within the realm of possibilities. I believe the JMA peak of +1.7C is too cool, but even so, it’s still not that far off my peak range guess

1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually. 

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 They're saying that weak (43%) is more likely than moderate (38%) "by summer of 2024". That's after weakening from its fall/winter max, which would be moderate+.

Wouldn’t summer of 2024 for them basically be late December this year when summer starts? So I took it as they’re saying weak has the highest chance by the start of their summer which would be late December. 

2 hours ago, griteater said:

This is from the Institute of the Sea of Peru ("summer of 2024" is our upcoming winter)...

 

July 21, 2023

The ENFEN Multisectoral Commission maintains the status of "Coastal El Niño Alert", as it is expected that coastal El Niño (Niño 1+2 region) will continue until the summer of 2024, as a consequence of the high probability of El Niño development in the central Pacific. The maximum monthly anomalous warming would be reached in July. For the remainder of the year, anomalous warm conditions would decrease from strong to moderate intensity. By summer 2024, the most likely magnitudes of coastal El Niño would be between weak (40%) and moderate (35%).

In the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region), according to ENFEN's expert judgment, based on observed data, as well as forecasts derived from international climate models to date, anomalous warming is more likely to continue to increase within moderate condition until the end of the year.

By summer 2024, the most likely magnitude for El Niño in the central Pacific would be between weak (43%) and moderate (38%). It should be noted that, although long-term numerical models coincide in indicating the development of an El Niño event of strong magnitude (on average) by the end of the year, what has been observed to date only shows a slight coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere.

 

Official Communiqué ENFEN N° 11-2023 - Reports and publications - Instituto del Mar del Perú - Plataforma del Estado Peruano (www.gob.pe)

Wow. They’re basically ruling out a strong Nino and saying the highest chance is for weak. Now that’s what I call going against the models and consensus. They may very well be wrong but it’s kind of refreshing to read something other than strongest El Niño ever twitter hype. 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

It was strong. 1991-92 is low end strong, 2009-10 is high end moderate. 

I see it now. The moderate Nino starts with ‘09. I guess I was confused there for a minute. lol

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Since when was ‘72 a moderate Nino?

I’m still confused about the coming strong MJO wave that keeps showing up in tweets. I still don’t see anything indicating that. Any previous model runs that had a decent MJO are back to nothing again. 

I’ve been looking at CDAS and it looks like the southern hemisphere is on fire toward Antarctica. That area is probably a large portion of the extreme global warmth right now. Obviously the sea ice down there is very low too. 

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 After falling from the record global high 17.23C on July 6th back down to 16.94 on July 14th, CFSR has rewarmed to 17.17 on July 18th. It will be interesting to see whether it rises above 17.23 within the next couple of weeks as normals don't start dropping for another 2 weeks or so. Does anyone have a prediction?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

This was probably explained somewhere in this thread but is this based off of observations around the world? Multiple times of day averaged? Is it similar to what CDAS is? 

Phoenix had a “cool” June so I wonder if that plays a role somewhat. Does that help delay the moisture from the monsoon a little which in turns allows it to get a bit hotter now in late July? I’m not terribly familiar with the desert SW climate so it’s just something I was thinking about. 

At least we have some decent -SOI readings now. I’m not sure whether or not that looks to continue though. Usually Gawx has a good idea on that. 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This post just stopped snowman19 from ever mentioning 1925 again. lol

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Check this out. Today's GEFS (bc) never gets out of the circle through the end of today's run (7/25). Today's stops moving up the diagram ~7/18 and then turns downward to end up on 7/25 on the circle headed toward phase 3 of all things compared to going outside the circle barely into phase 5 in yesterday's run as of 7/24! So, GEFS is signaling more than normal uncertainty late in the runs with this big change and still suggests no strong MJO being likely anytime soon:

 

I was just going to ask where this talk of a major MJO wave keeps coming from. I’ve seen nothing other than the weeklies which have been less than stellar to say the least. 

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At least he is 5 posted. Could you imagine what this thread would be like lol?

At least he’s banned from your sub forum. lol

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Could someone please start a 2023-24 winter thread so we can stop posting winter pattern fantasy maps from 6, 7, 8 months from now in a dedicated El Niño thread?

Yeah. We should stick to posting fantasy model runs showing 3.4 peaking at 3C in 5 months instead.

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its meant to measure the intensity of the ocean-atmosphere coupling, rather than the shear magnitude of the particular ENSO event.

Yeah. So it kind of ties in with the RONI. 

17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I saw this posted elsewhere about MEI:

The MEI for May/June number just came out at +.2.  Since 1979 and NO strong Niño was under +1 at this point. In fact, the only Niños that were lower than this year since 1979 were WEAK (79/80, 04/05, 06/07.)

Sooooo, unless some magic occurs real fast unlike anything in the past 43 years, we'll be lucky to see a moderate Niño according to the MEI.

Here's a link to Ninas/Niños if you want to see for yourself. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Just throwing this out since you guys know way more than me about this.  

Last year the MEI was indicative of a stronger Nina than what the ONI showed. Maybe the MEI is a better indicator than ONI in the current climate. 

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

26 minutes ago, roardog said:

Why do you feel it’s the real deal this time? What’s different this time? I’m still waiting on the super positive IOD that twitter posts have been forecasting since the beginning of May. The latest number is actually negative. lol
it could very well happen this time but the longer range models haven’t exactly been stellar with this stuff so far this year. 
 
Oh yeah, I’m also waiting on the rapid change to a positive PDO from the May twitter posts too.

 

Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March…

I haven’t posted anything even close to that. I’ve posted about how the CFS continues to forecast 1+2 to begin dropping rapidly which seems to defy the current subsurface conditions. 
 

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@gawx This looks like the real deal for later this month. If this is correct (Paul Roundy says it is) a very strong MJO event with an associated major WWB is going to take shape. If it happens, this will couple the atmosphere, cause a strong DWKW and we will see major warming in region 3.4 and pushing east into 3 and 1+2. It will also help to really get the +IOD going and constructively interfere with the El Niño. It needs to be monitored very closely

Why do you feel it’s the real deal this time? What’s different this time? I’m still waiting on the super positive IOD that twitter posts have been forecasting since the beginning of May. The latest number is actually negative. lol

it could very well happen this time but the longer range models haven’t exactly been stellar with this stuff so far this year. 
 

Oh yeah, I’m also waiting on the rapid change to a positive PDO from the May twitter posts too.

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

This is coming from the person who is banned from the mid Atlantic sub forum and can only post 5 times a day. lol

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

4th day in a row of 3.4 cooling:

CDAS: cooled 0.038 to 0.795

CRW: cooled barely 0.003 to 1.023

OISST: cooled 0.015 to 0.858

Average today -0.019 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.025, -0.039, -0.022, 0

Latest TAO map is very slightly cooler

Do you have the link to the TAO map? I can’t find the one I’m looking for. Thanks. 

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Vapid. You must have some real serious reading comprehension problems. Facebook? Lol Who’s posting facebook? Wow. No clue. And I’ll take HM’s analysis any day over yours.

You got me there. I meant to say twitter not facebook. Facebook, twitter, I hate it all. lol

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

“By the way, every event is unique. We have been on step with 97-98 in terms of weekly 3.4 numbers. But other big events like 82-83 took until Aug-Sep to really get going. There's no time constraints here to go super. If the right coupling happens, it doesn't matter when...” - HM

The reality is we now have the knowledge to understand the mechanisms behind El Niño formation. As a few posters have pointed out, there is nothing in the short term that is pointing toward a big jump in the 3.4 anomalies. We’re heading into July in a couple of days. MJO activity is weak at best, the 30 day SOI is around -5 with no big string of negatives in the near future, nothing exciting in the WWB department, a negative PDO, etc. So despite the twitter hype you like to post, the reality is much less exciting. 
 

I still wouldn’t be completely surprised to see the tri monthly peak come in under the 1.5 strong threshold. I know the CFS isn’t great but I think it’s a red flag that it continues to gradually get weaker with this event and even has 3.4 cooling in the near term. It’s like watching a modeled snowstorm and suddenly you see a model that starts to gradually show a weakening trend or a gradual shift in the track each run. That’s always a red flag.

5 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Gonna miss the main LLJ event by a long shot, but trying to be hopeful there will be a secondary batch with the upper level system coming in from the NW Thursday.

Sometimes it’s better to miss it by a long shot. If it just barely misses then you’re usually screwed for getting anything.