roardog

5 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Did you have a t-storm year last year?   After the dry June it changed a became active here as we were generally on the edge of the heat dome last year.   Yes I do recall 1995 

We had quite a few t-storms last summer but it was never really “hot” to the south. If it’s 100F with a dew point of  75F in Chicago and “cool” in central Ontario, that’s when we get the good nocturnal stuff. T-storms developing in northern Minnesota/Wisconsin in the late afternoon means watch out here that night.

We need the heat dome to be strong to the south so we can get some interesting weather here during the summer. Being on the edge of the heat is the place to be during the summer. 1995 comes to mind.

12 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Looking at some stats today, there's finally two stations that have crossed the 100" mark for the season... well behind average.  Herman is coming in 3rd.  I'm estimating my area has seen 80-85" now, which is probably pretty close to accurate as my totals usually come very close to Herman on any given year.  This area still running about 5 foot below average.  Pretty anemic by UP standards.

Calumet 109.8"

Keweenaw County 102.8"

Herman 91.8"

What do the least snowiest records look like around there? There’s obviously a lot of winter to go there but I would think this winter would be in the running right now.

Although it will most likely end up being a very warm month area wide, the colder air coming in the second half of the month will knock it down some. It’s not a sure bet that it’ll end up the warmest Feb on record at any given location by any means. 

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Just joking all around. Im sorry my elicit, explicit response was too much for you. Springs lately have been crummy, cloudy, chilly and missing long warmth spells. All I said was I hope this spring is nicer and warmer. 

What you just described is a normal Michigan spring so it’s no surprise that’s the way springs have been lately. 

There was a lot of talk on here and other places last fall about how this strong/super Nino would be different due to where the greatest forcing was, how the MEI wasn't in strong Nino territory, etc. However, when February ends, the winter temp anomalies over the US are going to look exactly like a strong/super Nino. 

1 hour ago, wishforsnow said:

Coming home crossing the lift bridge into Hancock off to the left I seen a group of presuming MTU students playing hockey on the canal. The ice can't be that thick. It just froze when we got that blast of cold and snow and has been warm since. 

I’m not sure I’d trust any ice south of Hudson Bay this winter. lol

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

One of the crazy things to me is that Detroit just saw the wettest January on record with 5.25" of precip (including 17.0" snow). El Nino's typically have dryness centered around the Lakes. I'm very curious to see how the turn towards cold in mid february and beyond behaves from a precip/snow standpoint.

I thought last fall I saw someone(maybe Raindance) post a map showing that a strong/super Nino actually has a corridor of above normal precip near here in the winter. That surprised me but then I remembered how ‘15-‘16 actually had some big storms come through this area after December. 
 

Of course this year, we saw a very non Nino like pattern in January with that cold stretch with the coldest air being in the northern plains. That along with a positive SOI for the month, brought a more Nina like pattern which could help explain the wetness around here. 

1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Where is JB getting those maps? MSP was over 5 degrees above average in January, and that is showing near normal temps.

Those are just high temperature anomalies. 

11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Man if y'all didn't choke too, would've been a fun nfc championship game in detroit. 

When the Lions were playing like an unstoppable force in the first half, I was thinking about how playing the Packers might have been a much tougher game. Then the second half happened and I changed my mind. lol

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

don’t worry, i’m a falcons fan.

it could be worse…

That Falcons second half collapse in the Super Bowl was somehow even worse than the second half collapse of the Lions in the championship game. 

Raindance has had a cold and stormy March for most of the country. It’ll be interesting to see if it happens. He’s had a good winter forecast. 

57 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

You beat me to it. lol.

1932 was also the warmest January on record. This, combined with constant rain, had dandelions in bloom throughout Jan in MI.

Looking at the top 10 wettest Januarys, wet doesnt always mean snowy.

01.) 5.25” – 2024 (snow 17.0”)
02.) 5.02” – 1932 (snow 0.9”)
03.) 4.96” – 1874 (snow 17.9”)
04.) 4.38” – 1950 (snow 9.5”)
05.) 4.31” – 1916 (snow 1.1”)
06.) 4.27” – 1929 (snow 22.1”)
07.) 4.12” – 2020 (snow 9.7”)
08.) 3.95” – 1913 (snow 8.0”)
09.) 3.92” – 1993 (snow 11.0”)
10.) 3.87” – 1907 (snow 12.7”)
 

This picture was published in the January 16, 1932 Detroit Free Press. A woman posed with grass clippings after mowing her grass.

 

How does grass even grow this far north in January? I would think the sun angle alone would prohibit it. 

Since it's going to be mild, hopefully we can get the rare sunny and mild winter weather. Then maybe it could at least freeze at night to keep the ridiculous mud down a little. Maybe we can accomplish that for awhile with the dry easterly flow coming up. 

26 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

See you guys mid Fall 2024.  Been real but now I gotta focus on my taxes and other less interesting things.  

I don’t know. This weather might be even less interesting than taxes. 

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Now look how low the OHC is: ~+0.25

I wonder if we are heading toward a very strong Nina with atmosphere kind of already being in a Nina base state. 

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree on all counts. Its like inappropriate touching to the fanatics to point out cold/snow extremes. No one is denying climate change, but the Great Lakes/Midwest is a region with cold winters/hot summers, so most winters, no matter how "warm" they are in the mean, will have some cold/snow stories to be had. And quite honestly, back to the graph chinook posted, I am quite surprised what a bout of deep winter this region saw for a strong Nino. I knew we would have cold shots and snow while some were on a ledge in December, but did not foresee a blast like that. Hoping some more fun is had in Feb/Mar.

 

So much of the season to go, but year-to-year rubber-band snaps can be wild. Locally, there were insane ones from 1880-81 to 1881-82, 1917-18 to 1918-19, and 1981-82 to 1982-83. But the 5 year period from 1877-1882 was downright wild.

1877-78: warm

1878-79: cold

1879-80: warm

1880-81: cold

1881-82: warm

No. Those winters were all cold. The warm ones you listed were due to rooftop temperatures. lol

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

There were 6 counterexamples in the FOUR decades from the 1960s-1990s - that is pretty much every single year, as I claimed. Older data is worthless for this comparison, since it was collected 400-500 feet lower in elevation on a rooftop in the middle of the city.

This isn’t the forum for this but lol seriously. 

7 minutes ago, snowsucks said:

you know you love to see it. early spring greenup this year.

Yes. It’s going to green up in early Feb in Milwaukee. 

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

 

I think it means you’ll get a lot of 89 degree highs this year. Just kidding.

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Another 0.5" yesterday and overnight, which brings us to 19.9" in the past 6 days.  Last season the whole seasonal total was a bit over 22", so we've nearly matched that in just 6 days lol.

MLI has had nearly 26" in the past 6 days.  Officially 16" OTG there and also at DVN.  Prob 13 inches or so here.

I guess you better hope for a super Nino in the future instead of La Niña. lol

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

An emoji of a man shrugging. Honestly its so changeable that I don't know what may happen. We need to keep the temp down though before precip falls otherwise we may be in the same situation as last event.

The 12Z Nam does look slightly east again FWIW which may not be much but a few miles matter for us on the eastern side of the state, especially you guys down there.

Pray for the palms.

I think if Feb were to end up cold and dry, Michsnowfreak would still be happy as there will always be some snow around if it’s cold and any snow cover would stick around. 

1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

He can keep creating new usernames all he wants. It seems banning him set the stage for an active period in the region, we can play this game again in 4-6 weeks. 

Hope the weight of the heavy snow doesn’t crush his palms. lol