roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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I would recommend not looking at the end of the 12Z Geps today. lol
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It’ll be interesting if there’s still drought around next spring. If we do get a developing Nino next year then I’d assume that favors a wetter and cooler summer in the Midwest but who knows? Even if a Nino is developing by then, there could be a Nina hangover from 3 years of Nina though too. Obviously all speculation at this point.
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I haven’t been paying real close attention but it seems to me that it wasn’t too long ago that Friday was looking like a decent rain but that seems to have turned into a stronger northern stream system instead with just a dry front. Just like every snowstorm. Some sort of southern stream system tries to come this way over the weekend with rain but I’m sure that will trend SE and weaker too.
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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Look at it this way. Less fog next week when Spring comes. lol -
Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Canadian definitely taking longer to ramp up and ending up quite a bit east. -
Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The SE and weaker trend has been around for years now it seems. How many storms over the last few years have turned from huge to almost nothing in the last 48 hours of model tracking? Will this be another one? -
Developing El Niño next year? Wet summer coming?
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This could be the earliest reference to sun angle on record. If your location can’t handle a late January sun angle, you’re pretty much screwed. lol
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That map is mean sea level pressure for 3 months. That almost seems useless to me. lol
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How much later do the leaves come out there in the spring compared to inland areas?
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All these theories work until they don’t. Remember all the high latitude blocking due to low sea ice theory? That didn’t work out too well either.
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What I hate is a snowfall that starts with a surface temp above freezing. It always feels like a good portion of the snow that falls gets wasted as it melts at first. Surface temps in the mid 20s seem like a good starting point. The flakes usually aren’t the consistency of dust and it all accumulates as soon as it starts to fall.
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Wrong month. lol
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It was a different type of summer around here than what we’ve become used to the last few years. A lot more days with lower dew points allowing cooler nights. It seemed like we were never going to have summer dew points below 60 again after the last few years.
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It definitely gets easier this time of year when the sun goes down so much earlier. Over here the sun doesn’t set until 9:20 in June so when it’s hot outside, I’m usually in bed by the time it really starts to cool down. lol
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Except that it actually doesn’t predict that. It has the entire east coast with slightly above normal temps. It’s also not a winter forecast, it’s a Nov-Mar forecast.
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There’s a difference between a top ten warmest summer from consistently high dew points causing the overnight lows to stay above average and a top ten warmest summer from extreme afternoon highs. Around here, I can have a well above normal summer mean from having lows around 70 and highs in the mid 80s, which we’ve seen a lot of in the last decade. That’s hardly newsworthy. It also helps that top ten warmest or coldest in the summer takes a much smaller departure from average than the winter.
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You guys will be glad to know that the Weatherbell prelim Nov-Mar forecast has the entire East Coast between normal and +1 for temperatures with an emphasis on a colder December.
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It's great that Will takes the time to do this. His method is very reliable too. There's been a lot of years where someone will try to argue against his method early in the Summer but in the end his method always does a great job and proves the naysayers wrong.
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I don’t think anything exciting ever comes from a warm to the north and cool to the south pattern.
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2 months ago you said strong Nino. lol
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I was thinking a couple days ago how it feels like it’s been unusually windy for this time of year. More wind coming on Thursday with the heat.
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I can’t remember if you guys had the derecho in mid July ‘95 or if it went north of you but that day that the derecho hit here, it was 97 before it hit and I can remember what it was like with no power for a couple of days after that.
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Speaking of high dew points. I can remember a day sometime in the mid 2000s where we had dew points around 80 all day along with a completely overcast sky. Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s with dew points around 80 all day with literally no sun. Low clouds socked in all day. I can’t remember too many days where it was that warm with no sun.
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Best climo?
