Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Ralph made a good point in tbe other sub...what some guidance shows today is something we've haven't seen all winter: A wound up storm. Have we seen that--just in general--in the last 5-6 months? Suppressed, weak, and shunted has been a more predominant theme than what we see on the AIs. I mean stuff can always change...but I'm starting to believe the idea of winters having a "personality".
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Hey @stormtracker I guess this potential storm is gonna be my thread...lol So Iet me know if/when ya deem it necessary to start one (perhaps if it's still there by Thursday 12z?). I have my doubts but I'll give it a shot
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So a Miller B just (potentially) further south?
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Whenever we play that game--especially in a Nina--we lose. And if other guidance starts showing later as well then then it's in trouble. I'd be kinda stoked if I were NJ or NY though
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I suspected this was gonna be a wave 1 affecting wave 2 situation...
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Gonna be interesting to see if other scenarios pop up, or if it's gonna between a hit and getting shunted.
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Lol...I posted earlier that if this is still a thing by Thursday I'd start the thread in full doubt and probably call it the "Ain't no way..." storm
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Hollup...this is supposed to be my storm, right? The one where if it happens I will take the merciless trolling? I'll tell you what...If we get to Thursday and it’s still a thing, then I'll start the thread if that's okay with the mods. I might call it the "We don't get big storms after Feb 20th" thread, or the "Ain't no way..." storm! I doubt it works out but it's a win-win for me in terms of trolling!
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I do hope Bob's theory about the AO is right in that we may be headed into a period of more blocking overall after struggling for the last decade (I mean...we've had more blocking this winter, haven't we?)
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Had you shared a chart as to the timeline starting from where it was 50 years ago to 1f warmer then 2f warmer? (I wouldn't even know where to start looking for that)
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Waaaaaaay too early for a snowmap for this one
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Not the 0z AIFS showing another logbook fail on the 24th (and the 0z GFS too to a degree) -
Never knew you were a heat miser Chuck, lol
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I'm starting to catch your angst over this and I don't like it, lol I'm gonna just pretend a better PDO will save the day...and or simply believe the next Niño will finally deliver our HECS
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Blame the perfect track, lol
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Awesome, lol Guess it would depend on how much rain we get tomorrow?
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What did NC get last winter?
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Yeah but you know why we aren't allowed to...people will not behave themselves and things will quickly devolve. Ya already see it in some of these responses. I think the reason for the rule is a conduct issue as opposed to a science one!
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Yeah I guess I'm referring more to what NOVA and eve SOVA down Chill's way get. Those waves that are plenty cold enough but get suppressed just so to miss us. Further north boundary...further north snow?
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This! @psuhoffman Not sure if your sae my other post, but I was asking about the samw thing: If we're headed for Raleigh climo then suppression would not longer be an issue, right? If the boundary is going further and further north...we should end up getting more southern sliders to hit us, right? Dec 2018 oughta be a hit in that scenario, lol
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Read my mind, lol And the snowy ensembles for that storm were right...only reason it wasn't a blockbuster was from a specific wave interaction they couldn't possibly see that far out. I for one have enjoyed the glacier (despite the inconveniences). And I'll always remember this winter for that!
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Well let's hope Raleigh climo is still a few decades away...I'm not ready for 55⁰ to be normal in the winter, lol Although...shoot: If that happens the suppression shouldn't be a problem anymore! We oughta be able to get a blizzard the way NC did in that scenario, right? Or the dang December 2018 storm oughta be able to get up here instead of there!
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As a fellow 90s kid I remember some of those fails, lol But I do remember more moderate snows of 6-8" as opposed to what we get now...
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This here...that's what I had assumed the changed would be. But I don't remember this stuff happening before 2016 or us having discussions about perfect track rainstorms in February. In fact I distinctly remember a snowfall in 2015 where it was 50⁰+ the day before and we were are thermostat watching...and the next day we got several inches! It all just feels sudden to me.
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So 2F warmer...did the effects somehow accelerate after 2016? Because I'm sure 2014 or 15 had setups like this that worked, didn't they?
