Maestrobjwa

Alright @psuhoffman weenie model or no...THIS is an example of what should be able to happen, right? And even the NAM...low got deeper, solution got colder...

Wait is this is a logbook fail incoming? Now see I thought this weekend was rain because the storm got here too late and the cold air had already escaped (and that if it were 12-24 hours sooner it would've been snowier) But you're saying this woulda worked before... Man I still don't get how the switch just flipped so quickly like that. This kind of setup work between 2010 & 2015? I hope this is a PDO issue and not the other.

Listen if that happens I will own ALLLLLLL of it and take my shots with little complaint, hahaha BUT if we are still tracking this by Wed and then it goes poof I'm just gonna sit here giving y'all side eye

Cayman Island thread...lol (Wonder how cold they were when Cuba hit freezing last week?)

Not obvious for all that are reading though.

Well...if we can't get snow, rain wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. At least it'll clean off the cars

You're right...of course it does whatever the heck it wants. And this isn't scientific in the slightest. It's no different than the baseball player refusing to wash a sock during a 30-game hitting streak...some are a little more like that than others, lol So err... See ya on the weekend during our next HECS (or whenever it happens...hopefully, lol)

Of course it does whatever it wants. But I'll see ya on the weekend of our next HECS (whenever it happens...Hopefully, lol)

Ah well..if having a glacial snow with almost 3 weeks of arctic air that barely got out of the teens--is the high point of a la niña winter, that is not bad at all. This has actually been a lot of fun! And It seems our misses weren't logbook misses but the thing I protest the most about ninas: the pesky NS, lol But it was plenty of cold, that's for sure! For next winter...I do hope we can take advantage of this niño and get it in a workable position. If we want a big dog soon, we can't afford to waste the second Niño of this decade...we only average 2-3 per decade to begin with! And yes I'm unabashedly HECS hunting too--niños are always our best shot at those!

I'll just note I'm just talking the last week of Feb not March. March snow is annoying to track but it most certainly happens.

Yeah I know. I'm just saying...this weeks feel like worse luck than other weeks call it a slight superstition or whatever. Like sports when a team just doesn't play well in a particular situation over decades. It's just like the "weekend rule"...snows more on the weekends than it does during the week!

I think a few people struggle with that on this board. But that's the nature of online debate and disagreement....

Turrible. Just turrible.

Let me clarify by saying that when I say it doesn't happen often I'm talking primarily of snows that are warning-level (5"+ And I'm only speaking of the cities (i.e. BWI) not so much N&W. Sorry I didn't clarify that part. Now admittedly...what I don't know how to do is how to isolate Feb 20th-28th and last week of December to see just what fell each year. What's the best way to do that? I'm more than willing to take time to put the stats together I just don't know how. I need to see how many snowfalls over 5" we've gotten the last week of December and the last week of February AT BWI. And btw I'm not at all talking about March. We got 5" there several years ago.

Don't get me started, lol Historically it's always been that way! Very few warning snowfalls during those weeks. No scientific reason for it...it just never works out. Even 2010 had a fail that last week of Feb, and then that which shall not be named happened the last week of Dec! Again, nothing scientific...but it's like sports when a team just never plays well in a certain stadium or park, lol

How did the AIFS look?

This is gonna be an interesting test for them.

Oh wow

We've gone from extrapolation to excrapolation

Wait who is that? Lol

AIFS remain south, though...at this point we gotta trust them more than then the EPS.

I don't know...Euro AI is locked in and in fact went even more south. Unless that changes this one is probably done.

AI Euro running away with the precip altogether...allllll the way south. I mean dang, lol Never thought this would morph into a total whiff altogether!

If the Doctor's AI doesn't show a hit, he'll probably be south too, lol

Yeah and we've seen these AI ops refuse to move once they get locked on an idea, smh I'd love to see a positive trend on those in the next day or so to have more confidence in our chances...