Maestrobjwa

I don't make the doom posts much though...this was my first since early last year. I ask more questions than anything else.

Now see, I don't go in there as much because I'm uncomfortable with the death iconography...(which is why I've never been "reaped")...but even banter is better than in here I suppose.

Hi, new doom poster here (although today was my only day, I've been optimistic until now) Get some snow in here and it'll get better...lol I blame the 5 year warning snow drought many of us have been in. Of the last 10 years, I think the last four or five have been kinda brutal...probably accumulated frustration. That being said...I hear ya. I learn a lot from the knowledgeable posters here, and I'm sorry some have left...we all gotta be better. It's just something about snow psychology...it's an emotional thing or something...

Dang man...I didn't realize February could go to crap...now I'm a bit nervous. It is never comfortable to just have one window. Too much can go wrong, and you have to pin your winter hopes on one or two chances. See I was hoping we were gonna finally hang on to the -AO/NAO regime and have windows into mid-February. But now I read Isotherms outlook and he says it might break down and go positive in February? Hope he's wrong...now if we can cash in second half of January...that'll be fine Dang it, man... @psuhoffman so you mean to tell me had that stupid pac warmth in November hadn't happened, we'd already have more snow? Smh I hope that doesn't screw us over...not when we finally got the elusive winter -ao/nao. We don't know when we'll see this in winter again...I hope we can take advantage of it somehow.

Well I mean...that SER flexing in February idea is a bit scary...and I know Isotherm is usually pretty good, right? I just don't want a scenario where we don't see a flake for two separate reasons (first not enough cold and then too much) and have that happen in February. Wouldn't that be game over?

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

True, lol

Whoops! Didn't look at the year...c'mon @Ralph Wiggum just why? Lol

Careful...that might be the Miller B screw job PSU warned about...don't fall for it! I'm not paying that weekend a bit of mind!!

Mods, I see y'all had to put a special red bar at the top of the site, hahaha I'm sure folks have been actin' a fool today! Thank you!!

Feels like you oughta make a thread with just this post and have the mods pin it at the top, lol

But I'd argue, though...with the weak sauce cold that we haven't been able to build yet...how can we possibly have a good HECS pattern? Is it possible that we could, temporarily be a little stuck between needing a period of legit cold...yet getting that cold brings would bring more suppression before it relaxes? In other words...right now, we struggle for cold and need a phased out bomb...lessening a chance for big snow. Yet if we get legit cold we need to give ourselves a better airmass to work with...could end up giving us a hopefully temporary period of suppression? (I know my thoughts are a tad jumbled but I hope my point is clear)

Now my thing is...if we are headed into the extreme cold...I have to wonder if we have until the week of the 20th to get any precip before the cold gets too suppressive (after which I guess we'd have to wait for another relaxation?)

I'm telling ya those are bad for mental health...lol

That's why I don't understand the hysteria in here. It was never progged to be before the middle of the month! (and historically it's always mid January on even in most of our best years)

It literally farted out flakes...lol

Define "real cold air"

The problem is expectations were too early. Dude, when did you hear anybody (other than DT's slightly early call) say anything about early January being the period to watch? Now either I missed something...or the thinking has been mid-January on for good potential. The blocking is already on the doorstep...as this run of the GFS shows for the 11th @psuhoffman the suppression on that run is indicative of that, right? And Ji, tell me...how many moderate or big storms have we had before the middle of January in our history? Answer: Not many (got two December big hits, and one early January--that being 1996). So even in our best years this is kinda how things happen. It is far too early to panic (although I know you do anyway, lol). So no, not having anything to track by now isn't a "problem" imo.

Giving up based on...one event? Now I could understand if the longwave pattern wasn't looking as favorable in the LR, or if we weren't still progged to get blocking, but...panicking just because of the weekend deal? Don't quite get that...look ahead, folks! Better off letting the weekend go and letting it be a surprise if it works out.

I'm not even focused on Friday (never was, really). Time to watch is afterward for me...I view Friday as a possible starting date for tracking (unless the 11th/12th deal works out...how's that looking, btw?)

Now I don't get that...why would your thread would be neurotic? You guys live in NEW ENGLAND. Average snowfall is what...30-40"? So why? Lol

That would be a very nina-ish result (snowhole), would it not? Would love to get in on one of those storms, but...as long as we have something to track beyond that...I can be okay with it, lol

Although it will be historically easier...we have done a lot better in their stadium in the playoffs than trying to play them here. I feel a lot better playing them there than here!

And with that...we are in!! Now to get the biggest monkey of our back...and go on from there!! LET'S GO!! Go Ravens!!

And this is the chaos part I don't like...because you don't know what's gonna be a favorable interaction and an unfavorable one...and or if one interaction happens at the right time or the wrong time...dang it, lol