DocATL

I think by mid March for sure. .

Are we interested in the GEFS snow mean or nah?

Yeah…how about some more northwest flow instead of spring? Sadly we have more of that coming. .

Euro spitting out a solution that 100% won’t verify.

No shortage of snow at Cascade Mountain. Made for a perfect powdery day on the slopes! .

Drove up to The Dells this evening. Absolute blizzard conditions on 39N. It was a rough drive. .

Event of the year for many .

Yup…it’s gonna snow or it’s not. I’m telling my patients today this injection into their spine will either help or it won’t. .

This was the part of LOT’s FD that made me audibly groan: “First, a shortwave trough is expected to zip eastward across the central Plains and Midwest today as a much larger, longer wavelength trough proceeds inland from the Pacific Coast. This shortwave, accompanied by a leading wing of warm air advection/isentropic ascent, is slated to reach our area early this evening, when thermal profiles will be supportive of snow being the sole precipitation type. The antecedent low- to mid- level air mass will be quite parched and will likely require snow to be cranked out of the overhead cloud deck at a pretty hefty rate in order for top-down saturation to take place and allow for snowflakes to start reaching the ground before the initial push of forcing clears the area. Thus, this evening`s snowfall potential could very well be "boom or bust", with most locations in our forecast area likely to either see a 1-3 hour long burst of snow that comes down at a moderate to heavy rate or little to no snow at all.”

Yes unfortunately. Will the front thump have enough forcing to overcome the dry air. I’d err on the side of bust because past seems to be prologue. The other two waves have issues of their own. We may get and inch or two out of this but I think the 3k NAM is even possible…don’t look at it.

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Refreshing to see the 18z HRRR actually improve from the 12z run at this timeframe. This whole thing still feels tenuous but I’ll be happy with an inch @Chicago Storm

Amen…let’s move along now. (Not)Enough is enough. .

1” in Naperthrill. Who says no?

Ok NAM…that’s more like it. Definitely south. Getting a phase here with intrusion of some mixed precip though.

Around 2 inches in Naperville. I-55/I-88 dry slotted for about 5 hours. Sigh. 2025, the year of 5 nickels and 2 dimes.

Snizzlefest.

Unfortunately, this sub has been conditioned to find the worst among the model runs and catastrophize about them. Myself included. .

The WAA needs to get cranking. Soon my friend. Soon. .

Is there any point in looking at this before Thursday? [emoji2375] .

After a pint of jamoca almond fudge I feel better about all of this.

The HRR had me closer to 2 inches verbatim and I would obviously be concerned about further trends to the lower end. This guy…on me like a hawk! .

If NAM comes in like HRRR, I’m getting a new hobby.

Sees 15z SREF…walks back from ledge. .

Toss. But seriously why are we so bad at predicting the weather?