DocATL

Yup…it’s gonna snow or it’s not. I’m telling my patients today this injection into their spine will either help or it won’t. .

This was the part of LOT’s FD that made me audibly groan: “First, a shortwave trough is expected to zip eastward across the central Plains and Midwest today as a much larger, longer wavelength trough proceeds inland from the Pacific Coast. This shortwave, accompanied by a leading wing of warm air advection/isentropic ascent, is slated to reach our area early this evening, when thermal profiles will be supportive of snow being the sole precipitation type. The antecedent low- to mid- level air mass will be quite parched and will likely require snow to be cranked out of the overhead cloud deck at a pretty hefty rate in order for top-down saturation to take place and allow for snowflakes to start reaching the ground before the initial push of forcing clears the area. Thus, this evening`s snowfall potential could very well be "boom or bust", with most locations in our forecast area likely to either see a 1-3 hour long burst of snow that comes down at a moderate to heavy rate or little to no snow at all.”

Yes unfortunately. Will the front thump have enough forcing to overcome the dry air. I’d err on the side of bust because past seems to be prologue. The other two waves have issues of their own. We may get and inch or two out of this but I think the 3k NAM is even possible…don’t look at it.

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Refreshing to see the 18z HRRR actually improve from the 12z run at this timeframe. This whole thing still feels tenuous but I’ll be happy with an inch @Chicago Storm

Amen…let’s move along now. (Not)Enough is enough. .

1” in Naperthrill. Who says no?

Ok NAM…that’s more like it. Definitely south. Getting a phase here with intrusion of some mixed precip though.

Around 2 inches in Naperville. I-55/I-88 dry slotted for about 5 hours. Sigh. 2025, the year of 5 nickels and 2 dimes.

Snizzlefest.

Unfortunately, this sub has been conditioned to find the worst among the model runs and catastrophize about them. Myself included. .

The WAA needs to get cranking. Soon my friend. Soon. .

Is there any point in looking at this before Thursday? [emoji2375] .

After a pint of jamoca almond fudge I feel better about all of this.

The HRR had me closer to 2 inches verbatim and I would obviously be concerned about further trends to the lower end. This guy…on me like a hawk! .

If NAM comes in like HRRR, I’m getting a new hobby.

Sees 15z SREF…walks back from ledge. .

Toss. But seriously why are we so bad at predicting the weather?

Looking like 2-3 inches in southwest Chicago burbs. Hopefully the bleeding stops. Don’t look at the ICON. .

I’m totally happy with 3 or 4 inches from a synoptic snow compared to what has transpired in Chicago thus far. Plus another event this weekend. It could surely underperform and leave us with 5 or 6 total. That’s plenty for kids and the bunny hills. Sure we wanted big dog but that’s just not in the cards this year. .

Seriously the difference between 4 inches and 8 inches for me is only that there’s less work to clear the driveway and maybe easier to clear the roadways. Other than that it will look just fine and much more than we’ve had.

Woof!

Probably more to it than temp differential but… 353 SXUS83 KLOT 091456 OMRLOT ILZ104-101600- SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 856 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES... CHICAGO SHORE...........32. CHICAGO CRIB............37. MICHIGAN CITY...........33. SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY.....40. && M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE. THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT A WATER INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW THE WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR. FOR LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVELS, PLEASE SEE: WWW.LRD.USACE.ARMY.MIL/WATER-INFORMATION/WATER-MANAGEMENT /GREAT-LAKES-AND-HARBORS/WATER-LEVEL-FORECASTS $$ .

Exactly. I’m also more interested in the mesoscale modeling. First real synoptic event for us.

Some gratuitous flakes in Naperville and frankly, I’m enjoying it. With at least the prospects of substantial snowfall to come, it’s nice to just admire the flakes.