DocATL

Rain well north of Chicago now creeping towards the Wisconsin border. Lots of standing water now in Naperville. Definitely raises the concern for flash freezing as we get into tomorrow. A sheet of ice might be worse than a blizzard. .

I’d expect the warnings to be lifted for the Chicago area this afternoon. .

I fully agree. Much of Chicago metro Is done per the HRR. Looks like we get some wrap around overnight but the low rapidly lifts northeast by then. I’d guess maybe an inch of additional accumulation at most per the HRR. Looks like the NAM from 24 hours ago was spot on. .

Looks like a nor’easter bombing out over the New England coast. .

Bullseye for central and north metro. .

NAM is trash. .

FV3 was equally as good lower expectations for the Monday/Tuesday system. .

Why does NWS Chicago say this: “The forecast for this storm system continues to be handled best by the more consistent global forecast models and ensembles (especially the ECMWF and its ensemble members). We therefore continue to steer the forecast in this direction. Currently, many of the higher resolution models such as the HRRR, NAM and RAP continue to be northern and warm outliers with the system, and thus, their current iterations are not favored.” By handled best, do they mean most consistent in terms of forecast? .

Unfortunately surface temps stink again for this one which is gonna take a chunk out of accumulations. .

Probably still not enough 🫤 .

Rapid cooling of Lake Michigan .

For being the gold standard of mesoscale models,the NAM’s run to run variability is ridiculous. .

The FV3 was pretty good with Monday/Tuesday event and it’s still looking ok. Nothing epic since 10:1 is overdoing it but I’d guess advisory level. .

Euro flirts with same marginal temps and we likely have some rain in the south side of Chicago but otherwise it looks juicy. .

Yeah…intense DZ bands basically parking themselves over the metro. .

Ripping in Naperville. This second round going to be a winner for west and northwest burbs. .

When I moved up here from Atlanta, my neighbor gifted me a snowblower. I now realize he was just trying to offload his. .

True…yes we are out of the ridiculously warm pattern. .

This is incomplete information. I would expect a pattern change but not until the end of January. We will have to get through the warm MJO phases. The PV likely goes to Europe as it seems that is the hot hand in recent years. .

Was just hoping for a miracle. .

Might be interesting tomorrow morning if our fetch here in Naperville is more NNE than NE. .

We may not be getting much snow in Chicagoland these days but this is about the thickest frost I’ve seen in my life! .

Record high minimum for Chicago was 46° and looks like we beat that barring a significant drop before midnight! We won’t beat the all time high of 64° unfortunately. What a time to be alive! Tempted to check if the hydrangeas are budding. Looks like I brought the south with me when I moved north! [emoji2957]

Will be interesting for sure. It seems like Nina or Nino, the pacific jet continues to be the biggest influence on our weather. PV splits seem to not deliver up to the hype. But literally anything beats the current pattern. 52° right now in western suburbs of Chicago. Got to be a record high low. .

Wow that’s epic! It’s funny. I’m in my first winter in the Midwest after 13 years in the south and it’s been a piece of cake! .