WVclimo

3k NAM says 1.50" liquid here a few miles SW of Hagerstown and (just barely) all snow.

Good lord, I had no idea Bob Turk was still working. I watched that guy when I was a kid and we only had 5-6 TV channels.

Inside runner as the (weak) high pressure in the NE slid off a few hours too soon. Very similar track but a deeper low, and February.

My first and final accumulation forecast for Wednesday:

3k NAM has 2.34" of liquid here. All snow. And still snowing at h60. So, I for one do not characterize this run as a disaster.

I think most of the folks in this subforum have a decent chance to exceed their snow total from the 2019-20 winter on Wednesday. Not much to be upset about with that.

All snow now. 35 degrees.

Changeover is happening. Gloppy flakes mixing in with the rain. 0.30” so far.

Latest forecast from NWS:

Was 31 at midnight. Now 35 with moderate rain.

Was 58/44 around noon and then the temp slowly fell the rest of the day. 50 by sunset. Now 35/25 with clear skies and a light north wind.

I was looking at that earlier today, reviewing my Cocorahs reports. Roughly every two weeks we have had a wet event: 9/30- 1.44” 10/12- 1.28” 10/29- 1.49” 11/12- 1.32” 11/30- 1.15”

I measured 18.8” in Dec ‘09 here (which would make it the largest Dec snowfall on record for this area.) That storm, iirc, was moving slower than this one should, and had a moisture connection from the deep tropics. And may have been moving into a colder air mass if I’m not mistaken. Keeping expectations in check for Wednesday.

I think every model run I have seen for the last 3 days has shown 10-20”+ in my yard. I keep waiting for the rug to get pulled but it’s been locked in since Friday morning.

1-3” DC south and east. 3-6” in the NW suburbs. 6-12” out past Dulles and points far north and west ?

LWX also has a forecast up for the beginning of the storm

Almost 3' on the NAM at MRB.

Can anyone with access please post QPF ?

The best runs had precip on us by 12Z Wednesday. The Euro has been slower than that for several cycles. We really don’t want slower, as it gives the high time to slide east. We are much better off with the ridge axis centered on Montreal (or west of there) rather than east of Quebec City. 18Z GFS has a later arrival and the storm cuts.

Growing up in Cumberland I can remember lots of storms where the heaviest snows from coastal storms never made it west of Frostburg. But those were usually the ones that tracked some distance off of the coast, like PD1. If this one is tucked into the coast like the models are currently depicting, you will do great there with the synoptic snow. And even in the storms where Cumberland had more than Oakland with the low passing by, your area usually still won out as it snowed another 24 hours with the upslope.

Catching up on the threads and lol’ing at the DT/Ji fun. Been “following” Dave since the 90’s and Ji for damned near that long. I still enjoy them both, like I still enjoy Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck.

Sunny and 61 degrees. Bring on the snow !

Still find it funny that all the crazy modeled totals for that storm still busted low here. The 35-40” that fell across Berkeley County was higher than any run I saw leading in.