WVclimo

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. 

On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. 

Have to go back to the 1990’s to find those kind of wet Januaries.  

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

What were you able to measure? 

Really tough to get an accurate # .

I was going with 3.5 but we added another half inch this morning so I was going to go with 4 but it's hard to say exactly.

I am going with 3.5”.  It was one of the tougher moderate snow events to measure.  

Made it up to 33° for two hours overnight.  Now back below freezing here.  Barometer bottomed out at 29.01”

1/7 — 6.0”

1/16 - 3.5”

season total 9.5”

Heavy snow now. 0.25 mile visibility. 16/13.  Winds picking up as flake size increases.  2.5”

Clear moonlit skies.  14/1  Static electricity is off the charts.  Barometer at 30.36” and steady for now.  Maybe sub 29.20” tomorrow night.

LWX dropped the forecasted low temperature tonight to 5°F for Hagerstown and Martinsburg.

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Really bullish.  Going all in on 12-18” for Garrett County through Monday night.  Lines up well with the latest Euro which is ~18” by Tuesday day break.  The WAA could surprise if we can score some good banding and keep the 700-850 levels colder.  But I still think bulk of the snow is actually overnight Sunday/Monday into Monday night.

Fun few days coming up!

You should get some great snow drifts out that way.  Enjoy !

The ECMWF continues to be the wettest model for this area. 

Interesting that the models aren’t depicting much sleet near the rain/snow line.  

12Z Euro says days 9/10 are frigid.

2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

I can't get this file to open?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

It’s a PDF file.  May need a reader if your browser doesn’t open it ?

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d love to see the maps and setups leading into 1996, 2003, 2010 at about 36/48 prior. Anybody got any maps or links?

Discussion of the models’ performance (with some 20th century maps) leading into Jan 1996, from pgs. 19-30

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf

18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Oh boy we are pulling out some real winners from the past now. What was that one robot that would post snow total predictions over and over again...I can't remember the screen name

WxMachine ?

15 minutes ago, H2O said:

I make this place worse.  Bring back Lmoleniux

I never emotionally invest in a storm… until RuggieWx is on board.

I’m kind of expecting a big snow in the Carolinas out of this upcoming pattern.

Light freezing rain and 30°.  Glaze on car tops and some elevated surfaces.

High of 27 for the second day in a row. Barometer crested at 30.66” this morning.  I rarely see higher pressure than that here.

5.5” with moderate snow.  Looks like another hour or so before the good stuff cuts off here.  Should easily pass 6”.  Overperformer for sure for the season’s first snowfall.

Just now, pazzo83 said:

still the greatest storm in my lifetime.  About 3 feet in the Shenandoah Valley.

I was inside the Beltway in College Park at ~300’ elev.  Got way too much sleet.  Only time 19” ever felt like a let down lol.

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Test

Didn’t see it mentioned but this is the anniversary of the Blizzard of ‘96.

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 Good point.   I wonder if models factor wind into their Kutchera outputs?

I think Evan Kuchera’s formula just uses temperature at various levels of the column to determine ratios.  Don’t believe wind is a component but maybe one of the pros here knows better.

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agreed.  I honestly was scratching my head on my latest measurement.  1.25" in 45 min.  Don't get me wrong, it is coming down nicely but I have seen heavier snow.

Maximum fluff factor with this one.  With no wind, have had some really large agglomerates here for most of the event.

Even so, pretty sure I’ll end up with more  liquid than any model’s forecasted QPF.

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Definitely looks like we will meet the WSW criteria. 

Interested to know what the liquid equivalent is when all is said and done.

Interested to see that myself.  Have two 4” gauges in different spots in the yard.  I’ll post the LE when it ends.

4.5” on the snow board with more to come.  Between heavier bands at the moment, but still a steady snow falling.

down to 29°.