Yes the wind on that lake is the bays demise usually, Right conditions this last few weeks with lighter winds so she froze over entirely and the pics and vids are amazing of people skating and wind sailing the lake.
Amazing to me how modeling over the past several cycles have consistently maintained that same within 50 mi or so offshore track for this system once they latched on.
A bit more confluence over head, With the dual lows, The lead lp pulls the trailer a bit east and by the time the consolidate, Its to far north and east over NS.