Craig Allen posted this a little while ago:
Getting a little concerned / nervous. I sure wish I had a chance to get acclimated with a few snow showers rather than hitting me up with an all out storm for the first one. Sheesh.
The HRRR is a high- res model updated hourly. The trend has been toward a colder solution due to surface and upper dynamics. and therefore more wintry precip. Last night, I mentioned the NAM12 and NAM3k were throwing around such hints. Remember, just using a 10:1 ratio means sleet and icing are included in the mix and can make snowfall maps disproportionately high.
But this morning, even when factoring out that parameter, the initial intensity of the snow and sleet may be enough to overwhelm the changeover for a couple extra hours.
For NYC, LI and NJ shore- that would approx double estimates, especially on colder surfaces. Then towards evening, even roads would get covered before heavy rain washes it away.
Inland- An easy 2-4" with 6+ in the NW hills of NJ into the Poconos, Catskills and north of TZ and Merritt towards I-84.
Watching this possibility very carefully. And remember, there may be a burst of snow to end the storm tomorrow morning.
November?????