cheese007

Tony Laubach seems to have a visual on it

Got a wedge on it now seemingly

Tornado on Brad's stream! EDIT: Reed seems to have something as well

Lowering on Brad Arnold's stream

First tor warning southeast of Dalhart

Mesoscale Discussion 0165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Areas affected...eastern portions of the TX Panhandle and TX South Plains into far western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131952Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase through mid/late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into the discussion area around 22z. Supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected and a watch will be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A thick cirrus shield oriented southwest to northeast across the TX South Plains/Panhandle vicinity has limited stronger surface heating somewhat this afternoon. Nevertheless, low level moisture has continued to increase across the region on strong southeasterly low level flow. Steep midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 C/km are already in place over the region and are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VWP data continues to show favorable shear for supercell development. While low level hodographs remain somewhat small, elongated profiles above 2-3 km indicate favorable conditions for very large hail amid steep lapse rates, and hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears likely with the strongest cells. Fast-moving cells and strong low level winds also will support damaging wind gusts. A narrow corridor has developed from roughly Floyd County TX to Wheeler County TX where thinner cirrus has allowed for stronger heating. Surface temperatures are around 5-10 degrees warmer in this corridor per West TX Mesonet data compared to points to the west. Weaker inhibition is noted in 19z Mesoanalysis data, along with slightly stronger low level lapse rates. This corridor may become more favorable for longer-tracked supercells and strong tornadoes later this afternoon. Nevertheless, strong low level shear and a moist, unstable environment could support tornadogenesis in any semi-discrete cells through early evening. ..Leitman/Grams.. 03/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34859971 34459976 34159994 33890030 33800065 33730113 33810138 33920148 34050154 34820165 35550162 35910155 35970146 36080123 36150074 36150041 36030005 35879989 35509973 34859971

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0019.html First TOR watch of the day, 50/30 probs

Big 15% all modes severe area covering most of AL/AR/LA/MS/TN along with portions of KY/MO/IL/IN

10% hatched Tor probs

DFW fortunately sems out of the woods for the most part with the latest update!

SPC out with an 80% chance of watch issuance in the next couple of hours for DFW into portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0135.html

D1 slight from northeast TX to far southwest KY

Some folks were getting ping pong ball sized in McKinney per social media

Real good thunder and lightening under the special weather statement! Wonder if it goes severe soon?

Some at least marginal severe days for NTX coming up, including tonight

5 inches for DFW. When averaged with the marginal amounts since 15-16 we actually end up at roughly our expected yearly average (about an inch per year)

Looking like a good call so far. Any recent melting covered with some steady but very light snow by the airport. Probably end up with a 1/2inch when all is said and done unless things pick up soon

Wind had problems but it wasn't *the* problem. That honor would go to natural gas: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/amp/

Much more like the winter storms of yore lol. FWD still forecasting a 100% chance of snow fwiw

Anyone know why the forecast pages, hourly forecasts, and snowfall map on FWD's main page all diverge in their snowfall projections? And 2nding the power companies and state leguslature being held responsible. I know two folks without electricity *and* running water since no heat = burst pipes in this weather. There is no reason for folks having to poop in a bucket all to line the pockets of politicians and CEOs

I may have been a bit too pessimistic regarding snow totals lol

I'm confident I'll be right. You'll see

FWD has a band of lower snow totals cutting through, you guessed it, DFW. Dry slot imminent at this rate

Would not be shocked if that's the satellite image tomorrow

FWD dropped snow chances from 100% to 80% in their daily forecast for DFW