PackGrad05

Important to look at the jet streaks and favorable right entrance left exit regions .

Agree to disagree. And I never said snow-covered roads... but roads will be a mess. and hazardous. There would likely also be early release or closures of businesses/schools

The GFS shows temperatures in the upper 20s during the afternoon on Wednesday while precip is falling. That would absolutely create hazards on roads.

Roads would be nasty, not just wet.....icy

GFS did trend south, most of Wake would be a sleet/freezing rain mix. As the RAH discussion stated, the GFS would be a moderate nuisance event with impacts during the day Wednesday and lingering impacts Thursday morning from ice on the roads.

I'm on the NWS Raleigh page trying to find previous snowfall maps from past events. I can't find them. Anyone have a link to them? I remember a similar setup to this within 5 years where it kept trending more and more NE and eventually Wake was entirely out of it.

18Z ICON looks almost identical with placement, amounts slightly lower. Still massive gradient across central NC/Wake

As depicted on the GFS, northern wake would be powdery and southern wake would be glazed

The last 3-4 runs of GFS have been very consistent. 12Z is slightly (20-30 miles) southeast of 6Z

The newest ICON is actually slower than its previous run

ICON looks good for central NC. The snow/ice line is right across Wake, per usual.

Don't look at those apps. They are largely based on one deterministic run and susceptible to wild swings and lag as new data comes in.

Which models and which runs .

Balloon data will greatly improve model consistency as we get into tonight and tomorrow morning .

Focus on impacts also. The January system was 5-6 hours of precip for central Nc and caused multiple days of impacts with lingering cold temps at night .

The last system trended weaker in this timeframe and everyone jumped ship. Then it came back within 24-48 hours of the start. Also, this could be high impact regardless. Especially with ice. .

That graphic is only snow amount impacts. Ice would extend much further south .

NWS Raleigh posted this on Facebook with regards to 00z euro: “However, I'm concerned that model may be overdone, given the strong jet streak aloft that may bring in some dry air and push the storm to the northeast rather fast late Wed evening. Both of those would tend to limit overall precip amounts. So perhaps leaning toward the GFS which features less overall precip may be the better way to lean at this particular moment. But of course it's the weather, and things can change either way. It's worth keeping in mind that even the lesser GFS amounts are still impactful to central NC. It doesn't take much wintry precip to cause problems here in this part of the country. Stay tuned!” .

However, this is a much different setup. We seem to be focusing on snow, but it is going to be a huge impact event regardless of precip type. Also, I can't remember the last time the EPS looked like this, this close to the event.

A weaker system may mean less QPF, but it also means better chance of snow for central NC... vs. a strong system that pulls warm air into the mid levels

Current trends are good but common in this range... Beware of the models going back the other direction to correct a little bit. Common theme... I'm still predicting a mixed bag of ice and cold rain for central NC until I see a few more days of these trends

At this point (8 days away), it's useless looking at specifics. The pattern is there and that's all that matters.

Not all the piedmont. NW Portions.

HRRR shows a burst of sleet/freezing rain for RDU Tuesday morning

Euro with the classic I-85 signature. After the northwest trend, only the mountains will get anything.