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Yeoman

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Everything posted by Yeoman

  1. Yeoman
    You’re assuming a clean, immediate pattern flip that the guidance doesn’t actually show. Cold erosion is gradual, downstream response lags the Pacific, and a strong NPAC ridge doesn’t guarantee East Coast warmth without a confirmed height rise, which isn’t locked in yet.
  2. Yeoman
    That take assumes the Pacific immediately overwhelms everything downstream, which isn’t how these transitions usually work. A strong NPAC ridge doesn’t automatically squash an EC trough, especially with lingering -AO influence and a trough tucked under higher-latitude ridging. Neutral NAO doesn’t equal warm rain by default. At this range, ensembles are smoothing over key timing and structural details, so declaring this dead based on a broad Pacific signal seems dumb.
  3. Yeoman
    Looking good in Edgewater! Must have skipped right over DC
  4. Yeoman
    Nevermind the fact it's 14 days away.. good lord people
  5. Yeoman
    Quite a few control freaks in this thread. Best not fret over something that is entirely unpredictable and will always be..
  6. Yeoman
    Norfolk is part of Northern VA as much as it sits on the Pacific Ocean.
  7. Yeoman
    Well that settles it
  8. Yeoman
    1/25/2000 - never forget
  9. Yeoman
    The GFS showed essentially the same thing for a few straight runs on Fri and then lost it.
  10. Yeoman
    posts in an obs thread but doesn't bother adding location
  11. Yeoman
    There won't be anymore snow in DC today
  12. Yeoman
    that and zero orographic influence keeps the sustained banding away
  13. Yeoman
    Maybe they're like Va and put it down 5 days before a forecasted storm that never materializes.
  14. Yeoman
    No need for your BF to DoorDash a yardstick
  15. Yeoman
    Does it really matter?
  16. Yeoman
    Booo
  17. Yeoman
    Sleep through the sleet?
  18. Yeoman
    I remember close to 6" of sleet in NoVA in one storm that year
  19. Yeoman
    Must have picked up on what's looking like this early wave break
  20. Yeoman
    HRRR is worthless for predicting band placement until it's inside 18 hours
  21. Yeoman
    If low-level northeasterly flow holds longer than modeled, you can sustain snow or sleet even as the mid-levels warm, which models often don’t resolve well until you’re inside ~24–36 hours.
  22. Yeoman
    Compare 850 winds and 850 0°C line at hour 42 on both runs, plus where the strongest fgen/omega sits. If the better lift shifts north or the 850 flow turns more S/SE, that’s your “colder run, warmer result” culprit.
  23. Yeoman
    That’s the classic CAD/overrunning trap: the cold air is stubborn near the ground, but 850–700 mb winds can crank WAA over it. So you don’t dislodge the high, you just ride precipitation over it and introduce a warm nose. The surface map looks invincible, and meanwhile sleet is doing victory laps.
  24. Yeoman
    Bye bye snow, hello sleet
  25. Yeoman
    NAM too dry? That would be a first..
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