ShawnEastTN
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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN
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Yeah agree completely! Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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This seems reasonable and smart. The western side of the great valley is likely the area where cold won't scour easily so Ice Storm Warning makes sense, the mountain counties are still covered by WWA and northern areas with Storm Warning. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Like recipe for concrete. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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For East Tennessee Knoxville topped out at 33, and Chattanooga 34 on Sunday for surface temps during the warm nose. If those numbers are just a little too warm and over modeled by a few degrees then talking about long duration ice with no thaw then temps quickly crash. This is what I think people really need to prepare for in the end just in case. How many times have we seen low level cold be under modeled and also more stubborn to warm up over the years. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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ABSOLUTELY! I don't think anyone should be thinking anything about this storm is set in stone, the tiniest things off by just a little can make a huge difference. Whether that surface temps off by a couple degrees or strength of the storm off by a few MB, or storm tracks 50 or 100 miles off modeled track. All of those things are super minor and might not be modeled well but have huge impacts. This storm for us will really be a nowcast scenario, this storm I am certain will have surprises both good and bad I believe for different areas. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Someone else mentioned today about the January 2024 storm how the GFS was more accurate and it really was considering how much of a mess the GFS has become. WVLT rode the Euro with their forecast and busted big time. I have a feeling this storm is going to be very similar to the January 2024 storm, except swap the snow with ice. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Same here about 10 inches.
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I think for East Tennessee this storm will be in many ways similar to the January snow in 24. In that storm areas closer to the mountains got robbed but as you approached the I-75, I-40/I-81 corridor you got to meaningful snow accumulations. If you are closer to the mountains you got too much downslope. For this storm I could see it be similar but instead of snow it will be primarily freezing rain. One key difference this time though I do think CAD will do the wrap around back into Tennessee from North Georgia, not super common but has happened before, with that southern areas like Chattanooga and Cleveland could get more than expected in general of course not snow but ice. That CAD wrap around could also keep the valley away from the mountains colder longer in general as it gets pumped back north by southerly flow. That's my thoughts for East Tennessee valley. Plateau West definitely need to prepare for long duration event for sure, and western and northern great valley I believe is in the same boat with long duration ice event. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Yeah it's hard to pull for normal liquid rain but given a choice I'll take the warmest run of the Euro over that GFS run. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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With the ice it's projecting for East Tennessee for essentially 24 hours from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday that few hour time above freezing probably isn't even going to make much difference in all reality. That ice will be catastrophic as depicted. Verbatim many folks won't have power for a week. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Tomorrow morning onward that data is supposed to be ingested. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Yeah also many many times models don't really do well with most valley areas that are away from the mountains like in the valley north of 40 and west of 75 those areas are often colder than modeled in these situations and don't scour out very easily, so could have longer duration of freezing precip north of 40 and west 75 up to the plateau where downslope isn't as much a factor and the surface cold air can be much more stubborn than modeling often shows. Basically the western half of the great valley. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Yeah not entirely surprising, don't really see a change in ice accumulation though which I would have expected to increase with the 18z Euro.
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0z NMB, yanked from James Spann, as I don't have a pro account on Pivotal. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Should have hedged your bets and bought some fruit slushy syrup to make an snow cone with sleet and freezing rain. Agree though need to get closer to event to fully trust.
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Agree, its not exactly rare to see these big swings at this point in the tracking, not a trend until minimum 2 similar runs but really 3. Until then not buying it. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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That's what I've been reminding myself that even if this ends up with these crazy totals of snow, we don't have the winds that came with 93. That's at least a consolation. I remember hearing that wind roar in the middle of the night during the 93 storm it was like a hurricane. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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The last major ice storm in our region i recall was in the 2010's but was primarily the upper Cumberland Plateau. Maybe 2014, I don't remember exactly but my local utility Volunteer Electric had folks in Cumberland and Fentress still without power 2 weeks after event. In the valley at least my neck of the woods the last sizable ice storm was either 14 or 15 but it wasn't catastrophic maybe .2 inches. Caused some outages from pine trees falling on lines but nothing widespread. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Yeah Bradley and Polk often get more warm nose nudging in it seems from this type of setup, even more than Hamilton I believe. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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Not to forget there will likely be a band of sleet and graupel between the ZR and the snow. While sleet isn't devastating to infrastructure it is devastating to my feelings when I get stuck under it. Would suck to get 3" of sleet while just up the road gets a foot plus snow. Sleet just eats snow totals right up. My first post of the season, glad to have something fun to track, feels like it's been forever since this type of storm. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk
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There is a ton of low level moisture out there. This might be a good event tonight if the lift is decent. I've been getting snow all day, mostly little flurries since about 10am but still loads of low level moisture.
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Sitting right at 2" when forecast by MRX .5 to 1". Still snowing.
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Imby I bottomed out at 32 degrees at 9:24 pm then began warming from then till about an hour ago. About an hour ago I topped back out at 36 since then temp is falling again I believe in response to moisture in the dry air as my temp has fallen back to 33 and it's falling a tenth a degree or so every 5 minutes. Dew point is fluctuating back and forth at 25 & 26.
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35/26 for me 67% humidity.
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Radar starting to fill in quickly between Nashville and Crossville. I know there will be a period of virga but think it'll start sooner than forecast. Might need to move start times that MRX forecast an hour or more earlier. Virga already over me in the Great valley.
