ShawnEastTN
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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN
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All I know whatever p-type falls tomorrow imby it is not going to melt. Every flake or pellet will stick, not to mention freezing rain. Got up to a balmy 34 which did nothing for the ground as it's still rock hard frozen like concrete been like this for 2 days now, those road temps and sun angle issues we usually have will be non-existent tomorrow. Will be treacherous everywhere!
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I don't remember them doing these until recent years and really this year more so than last even.
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They've split the warnings into 3 sectors it appears. Far southern valley, mountain county portions like "Southeast Monroe" & "Smoky Mountain" and the rest of the cwa all with differing forecast and amounts.
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Last night I was 14 degrees, that was after a daytime high of 29. Models aside, it's really hard for me to think of any scenarios in my ~40 years of life in East Tennessee where a storm moving into this type of deep freeze was a bust warm. Just anecdotally of course but just can't recall getting busted warm in this type of conditions leading up to a winter storm. The only busts I can recall in this type of conditions before a storm is dry air and virga storm, and that doesn't really seem plausible.
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Because it's a blend of models that include those models with downslope holes.
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MRX will stand with NAM and die on that hill regardless of consequences for the public. Though with 12z NAM technically a worse outcome in terms of threat to life and property for the MRX CWA it will be interesting to see if MRX tries to wiggle a bit and side with previous runs of the NAM and claim 12z is an outlier. I should get about 3 inches of sleet according to the 12z NAM if that happens will be the deepest sleet I've ever seen imby. Previously I've seen a bit more than an inch.
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Nice uptick!
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0Z GFS Kuchera map
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I think I'll blend Euro's thermals with GFS's qpf. Euro has been slowly catching up on QPF anyway. 24 hours the Euro has moved up greatly in qpf.
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Feels safe to say we have a strong outlier. When GFS and Euro are close to each other, and the NAM miles away from either and miles away from all guidance, I'll side with a blend of GFS & Euro.
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East Tennessee gonna get 5 inches sleet and .25 inches snow. ROFL Will have to take a peak at the 3k, it seemed to be a bit more sane previous runs compared to 12k.
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Yep it's more amped up, or NAM'd up. QPF is more NAM'd for sure even in snow zones.
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NAM definitely looks NAM-tastic so far.
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It is impressive how much more the Euro has filled in from 24 hours ago. It had many areas in East Tennessee fighting for an inch and a half and now has solid 3-5 everywhere in the East.
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For sure that's why I think it's possible Chatty becomes the place to be. I think that mix line is closer to Dalton and Chatty might get hammered.
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To be fair better than Polk County on that run.
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Have to admit it does look eerily similar in terms of axis of heavier snow, but every storm is different and small differences can make huge changes. I don't recall the full synoptic look of the storm last January.
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In case anyone hasn't seen the 18z GFS Kuchera map.
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Same here rock hard ground. Highest I reached today was 29, and already appear to be falling. I feel confident on this storm I am not used to feeling confident of any winter storm but something about this one as we've been following for at least 10 days doesn't feel as Shakey as normal, probably the the cold being entrenched beforehand is giving me a false sense of confidence, but just seems through the years if there is deep cold, frozen ground and a storm moving in it has high probability of working out.
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Yeah I'm hoping tomorrow as we close in on less than 24 hours we can really start getting a greater picture from short-term models. I feel like MRX is almost weighting NAM a bit more than they should, but I understand their conundrum.
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Gotcha I was confused by that. Ok good!
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Also I thought they bumped Tri-Cities area down to advisory mid day? Am I losing my mind, back to watch now.
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Yeah their trimming suspiciously matches NAM earlier.
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MRX trimming back along the mountains, not sure if they are concerned with downsloping or worrying about the precip dying back a bit as it goes East, or mixing cutting into totals.
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This is what I suspect will be the final result for the majority of folks.
