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ShawnEastTN

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  1. ShawnEastTN
    Glad to see MRX come to their senses this morning. They were potentially putting a lot of folks into a false sense of everything will be fine, disregarding the trapped cold, enhanced by deep unusual snowpack. I was stunned yesterday at how they were proceeding. Glad to see them right that ship.
  2. ShawnEastTN
    I haven't busted my low, but I'm at it now. My point forecast low is 12 that is what I'm at now. I imagine I'll be much lower by daybreak.
  3. ShawnEastTN
    That sucks man, to have so much going on at once is difficult.
  4. ShawnEastTN
    Likely evening. Exact time would be hard to guess, but probably not earlier than 5 PM and probably no later than 8PM for that start time.
  5. ShawnEastTN
    OHX Ice accumulation map which I know aren't hand drawn has almost all of Meigs, McMinn and probably Loudon county showing up to a tenth of an inch freezing rain. I believe their graphic more than I do MRX as it's just more reasonable.
  6. ShawnEastTN
    I'm expecting to get near zero again tonight, I know they are expecting SW winds to advect warm air, but SW of me for about 200 miles is snow pack all the way to Huntsville Alabama. I'm sure that distance of snow pack will have an impact on the temperature here all the way to Knox County and beyond.
  7. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I am stunned they didn't include Meigs and Loudon counties. They love the magical meteorological barrier of I-40, completely disregarding in both counties there is 10 inches of snow on the ground. Kind of bizarre. It's going to be treacherous even with regular liquid, roads here are still snow/ice packed with concrete tough ice that's 3 inches thick on the pavement. Plows can't break it up and salt has had no impact. You take that plus some rain of any variety then flash freeze it with the snow and ice already there and it might be really bad.
  8. ShawnEastTN
    Probably hit my high today about 5 degrees below forecast. Usually about 3 pm is my maximum and 24 is all I could muster. Not really melting snow, still in trees like it just happened and trees are usually the first place to lose snow for me before the ground. If we have a clear night most of the night but clouds move in toward daybreak locking temps down, I am just not sure WAA is going to have a big enough impact locally to really help with tomorrow's storm.
  9. ShawnEastTN
    Think I've topped out also, 24. Ridge behind/south of my house blocks sun and makes for earlier sunset in winter. Was supposed to go another 5 degrees higher.
  10. ShawnEastTN
    So very cool and interesting phenomenon for East Tennessee. MRX has documented Lake effect snow off Douglas & Cherokee Lake this morning! Talk about rare occurrence. Edit: Didn't see [mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention] and @Holston_River_Rambler had reported this already earlier this morning. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/QGXrP4QAArvudDw8/?mibextid=4p3i6U
  11. ShawnEastTN
    Same my general forecast low across models was 5 above. I beat that by 6, but neighbors further away from the water beat it by 10 or more degrees.
  12. ShawnEastTN
    I really feel like today is a bit of a litmus test on model temperatures. Most models have me rising into the upper 20's today. I started at -1 being a stones throw from Watts Bar Lake kept me warmer than a few miles away from the water where many PWS were -5 to -10. My temp has risen into the teens but seems almost stalled at 15/16 degrees. If we bust colder than models forecast then I think models are not handling the deep snowpack in our area well. Weird to say deep snowpack in my area being in the valley but it's deep compared to a normal snowfall. Going to take longer to get rid of it.
  13. ShawnEastTN
    This makes me feel a little better. I honestly think frozen precip will be easier to deal with over liquid that flash freezes trapped by ice/snow plow banks on roads here.
  14. ShawnEastTN
    This! Even if we get to 34 and rain where I am located there are piles of snow along the side of the road from plows. Those piles are not going to melt from the low QPF of this storm even above freezing with rain. There will be water trapped on the road surface unable to drain over the plow banks that will flash freeze and likely be worse than before at the peak of the 10 inch snow. I expect some hazard product to be issued likely advisory.
  15. ShawnEastTN
    Ouch not good! I've just fallen below zero now. Being by the river I think tends to keep my spot a little warmer, if 0 is warm. Probably fall a few more degrees at least before sunrise, so probably low of -3 for me. PWS in my area away from the river are colder -4 to -8.
  16. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah Todd is my fav local met. I swear most mets on local stations are just there for entertainment value and don't seem to study the topography of their forecast area aside from knowing the Smokies are generally colder.
  17. ShawnEastTN
    I'm currently at 13 but falling pretty fast within the last hour I was 17.
  18. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I always take these with a giant grain of salt. They don't get enough spotter reports to be able to make accurate maps.
  19. ShawnEastTN
    Took these just a few minutes ago. Usually after a heavy snow, breezes knock it all off the trees the next day here. The snow on that cedar and other tree here on my property looks delicate by appearance like it could be blown off or fall off easily, but it is actually sealed by the light freezing rain to the trees. The freezing rain was light enough here to coat the snow and not wash it away even on trees. Don't think I've seen that at my house in previous storms. Very rare for me to have snow still on trees by the end of the day after a snow.
  20. ShawnEastTN
    Here is MRX accumulation map, just released.
  21. ShawnEastTN
    Yep @Knoxtron I have a few cedars that the tops are really bent originally from the weight of snow then the freezing rain locked that snow by sort of encapsulation so that it ain't coming off easily, until we get some serious melt time.
  22. ShawnEastTN
    I know so rare for me in the valley, even deep snows like this are usually mostly gone by this time in the day. See you got a good freezing rain coating also.
  23. ShawnEastTN
    @PowellVolz OHX released their area accumulation map. I'm waiting to see MRX, but on their map your bullseye you drew even before it was snowing shows in the map almost perfectly as 8"-12" orange. West and North Knox down to Rhea and Meigs. Need you to start drawing those bulleyes before every storm. [emoji3][emoji3]
  24. ShawnEastTN
    I ended the event very close to 10 inches, but that transition to sleet and freezing rain was more than I realized at the end of the event. It was still freezing rain and sleeting when I went to bed but was very light. Just broke the sleet crust off an undisturbed area of snow and you can clearly see the sleet pellets frozen together, got about an inch of sleet before it all ended for me sometimes well after midnight. Can clearly see the sleet pellets shape fused together for a thick crust. Really surprised to see that sleet layer at an inch thick. So just under 10" of snow, and about 1 inch of sleet.
  25. ShawnEastTN
    Just going to throw this out there. It's not very common to have deep snowpack over most of Tennessee with an approaching storm. I think many models are really over doing warming ahead the storm and if they aren't over doing warm nose aloft then I really fear a potential ice storm over much of the snow pack area. If we get .25 QPF of freezing rain it will be very bad in normal situations, let alone on trees that have snow on them that is already enveloped in light ice from the switch to freezing rain at the end in my neck of the woods.
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