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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Even if we came up a degree or two short of the convective temp, most of the CAMs show a modest shortwave approaching later this afternoon, which (assuming it's real) will certainly get the initiation job done. Without full surface heating, the about of instability probably won't be sufficient for widespread severe (although I won't rule out a few wet microbursts), but heavy rainers seem pretty likely with the high PWs
  2. high risk
    I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way. But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC. The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.
  3. high risk
    had some impressive downburst winds here in the College Park area.
  4. high risk
    # GFScancel
  5. high risk
    someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.
  6. high risk
    Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.
  7. high risk
    Seems pretty likely that we'll wake up Sunday morning to a slight risk. Good instability + good deep layer shear + likely initiation puts us in the game for sure. Waking up Sunday to a SLGT for Monday seems quite plausible too.
  8. high risk
    Dynamics, ftw!
  9. high risk
    it's a nice looking simulated reflectivity signal for sure, but the forecast soundings out ahead out if have almost no instability to work with. I still think that some strongly-forced gusty showers (maybe some thunder?) are likely ahead of the front, but organized severe is going to be tough. The problem is still that the low-level wind fields don't turn around to south until early afternoon due to that departing low to our northeast.
  10. high risk
    I have to admit that while I'm not yet "in", I'm more intrigued. The surface low moving up the eastern shore Wednesday night isn't as defined and is slightly faster now, so the disruption to our low-level wind field may not be as pronounced. Most guidance now quickly turns us back around to SW sfc winds Thursday morning. I have had doubts how quickly we can clear out after the early rain, but the downsloping may be enough to help clear things out, especially in VA which will also be further away from the low departing to the northeast. I still have some doubts about low-level moisture, and this looks like an event where the effects of 65 vs 61 dew points will be huge. Forecast soundings all have amazing deep-layer shear and better low-level shear than last night's runs, but the cape is "tall and skinny", so I wonder if updrafts will really be able to crank up in such a sheared environment. It's hard to not notice that UH track in the NAM nest that goes from DC to the beaches, but for now I think I agree with SPC that the better threat is west and northwest of DC where 1) sfc heating is more likely 2) higher dew points may pool 3) better lapse rates exist as the trough arrives from the west. Wondering if a wind advisory will be needed early Friday as a 45-50 kt LLJ overspreads the area. They'll need a high wind warning over the terrain of eastern WV if the NAM nest is right.
  11. high risk
    I'll bite. There is a bullseye of 1500+ cape in northern VA Friday, but it's because the NAM somehow creates a small pocket of higher 2m dew points that seems pretty fishy. No doubt about the awesome wind fields aloft leading to some excellent deep layer shear, but what really messes us up is the surface low that passes to our east Thursday morning and turns our winds to northerly. It does look winds will turn back to southwest during the afternoon, but I don't think it will be in time to bring enough warmth and moisture back into the area for widespread SVR. It does look like 500 sfc-based cape is a possibility, though, and with those wind fields, I wouldn't be shocked if SPC puts us in a day 3 MRGL for the possibility of a forced line of gusty showers/storms along the cold front. That surface low needs to either be a much weaker feature than currently progged or move faster to the northeast to give us a big SVR day Thursday.
  12. high risk
    you sick bastard.
  13. high risk
    Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential. But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.
  14. high risk
    a pretty spectacular upper wind field will spread across our region Thursday (over 100 kt at 250 mb), but it's going to be wasted for severe weather due to the inability to get quality moisture to return to our area after it gets shunted to our south Tuesday.
  15. high risk
    SPC is discussing a possible threat here around that time too in the Day 4-8 outlook.
  16. high risk
    HRRR shows storms for a lot of us later today, while the NAM nest does not. The hi-res windows show both ideas. It seems to come down to heating: the HRRR (and other models with aggressive solutions for our area) take us to the upper 80s before the forcing arrives. The NAM nest keeps us in the lower 80s. Right now, it seems too cloudy to make it up over 85....
  17. high risk
    Can I have my vote back? Trends in the guidance have been towards a less interesting event tomorrow - looks like a few isolated cells during the late afternoon (with still some SVR potential) and then perhaps more widespread non-severe storms after dark.
  18. high risk
    Boom! Actually, one interesting aspect of the NAM nest forecast is that it pops a sfc low later Wednesday night over the eastern shore, and whatever shortwave is causing that leads to a huge response in the low level wind fields. Instability is iffy, but the hodographs over eastern ME and DE look amazing. I have big doubts about whether this feature is legit, but there would be a threat of late night TORs east of here if it verified.
  19. high risk
    I think I'm IN. While the details among the CAMs so far this morning are not in agreement, they all have good storms somewhere close to the DC-Baltimore area with a combination of instability and shear that isn't amazing but will certainly justify a SLGT risk. If we could combine the NAM nest instability with the strong HRRR wind fields, we'd likely be looking at an ENH.
  20. high risk
    good point, although the NAM nest seems to be a fair amount higher, although it has much higher low-level dew points than the other guidance.
  21. high risk
    FWIW, I have no idea how real or not real Wednesday's threat is. It's a low-amplitude, fast-moving shortwave for which there is little model agreement.
  22. high risk
    We once had 102/78 with a nice EML.... and we got the 2012 derecho.
  23. high risk
    I'm gung ho on storms, as this is a strong push of colder air (upper 60's on Monday!). And it looks like there is just barely enough shear and instability (along with a relatively dry and well-mixed PBL, promoting strong downdrafts) to justify a SLGT risk. But I just don't see the shear for TORs, especially in the low-levels. I will say that the HRRR is a bit more aggressive than the NAM nest in terms of strengthening the wind fields later Sunday afternoon, so if storms are still around (i.e. a squall line hasn't swept through), I guess there could be some transient supercell structures, and since every storm in Howard County in the past few weeks spins something up, I won't potentially make an ass out of myself and say that there is no chance of a TOR.
  24. high risk
    I would think that’s for the New England part of the slight risk. The wind fields down here look pretty anemic: 15 kt or so at 850mb.
  25. high risk
    I was a bit surprised to see that this morning. Instability now looks better than what was progged yesterday, but the shear looks really meh. The soundings do have a fair amount of dry air beneath cloud base to promote strong downdrafts, and it looks like we’ll have a line of storms roll through at the favored time of day, so those are in our favor. I’m “in” for a line of storms in the late afternoon (no earlier than that, please - hosting an outdoor kids’ birthday party), but I’m very “meh” for widespread severe as of now, although a few stronger gusts seem possible.
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