high risk

Yeah, that area is going to have trouble with dew points due to downsloping. Upper 40s here. T/Td will be fun to monitor over the next 3 hours.

I'm slightly more bullish about this than you due to the impressive dynamics, but the better solutions say that we're roughly 64/48 just ahead of the storms. If we don't get there, it will definitely be lame.

cape was going to be limited no matter what, but yeah, we need every degree we can get today. At least warm advection is at least somewhat offsetting the lack of sun

yes. The soundings are really cape-starved. The only reason we have a chance is because the dynamics of this system are really impressive. Hail is a concern due to the low freezing levels for sure, but the meager instability argues against seeing widespread larger sizes.

no real change in the 12z guidance. While they differ on coverage/intensity/timing, all CAMs have some amount of convection in our area early to mid afternoon tomorrow. The best signals for coverage and intensity are areas well northeast of here, and the signal within our area is better on the east side of town than on the west. Sfc-based cape isn't great, but there is some in all progs. Soundings support some stronger wind gusts, and I agree with SPC that due to the very cold air aloft and low freezing levels, some hail is possible in any stronger, discrete cells. The MRGL seems to cover the threat well for now.

Slight improvement for Tuesday in the 00z suite. Best chances still appear to be for those further northeast, but both instability and simulated reflectivity improved a bit. Will be tougher to get decent convection the further west you are due to downscoping.

Was just coming in here to post this, but you beat me to it. The forecast soundings look better to our northeast (in the MRGL area) due to it being colder aloft, but there might be a small amount of instability in areas along and east of the Potomac. NAM nest actually has an interesting evolution for Tuesday afternoon.

Significant wind here in North Laurel. A nearby neighborhood has no power, and a colleague who lives a half mile away had a tree go down.

Interesting trade off as the line moves east. It's moving in to way better instability, but the good wind fields are quickly moving off to the east, and the low level flow is veering. Storm-relative helicity will therefore be dropping as the line approaches the DC-Baltimore area, so the tornado threat is decreasing, but the wind threat is likely increasing. That said, despite the decreasing shear, it still could be sufficient for some rotation within the line.

actually, it's quite good. Several discrete cells with a few decent UH tracks. If you want to see a massive bow echo swallowing the entire area, today is not your day.

True, and some of the storms that develop out there will come our way in a few hours, but the CAM simulations also show cells developing locally around midday.

Other than the HRRR, the 00z CAMs across the board are a big step back for the threat.

verbatim, that early morning line has no sfc-based instability to work with and would be non-severe. It's earlier with that round of convection than most other guidance. That run still has some afternoon cells, but it's definitely not showing a widespread severe threat.

Yes, and it then really likes that noon-2pm window. Has a few decent UH tracks.

and likewise. I agree that I'd wait on any hatching up here, but I personally see enough to go up a notch to ENH.

I still have the same thoughts I had last night: QLCS moves through the area during the early-mid morning hours with some discrete cells in the early afternoon. The QLCS will have extreme shear - it's a question of instability, but IF we can get some sfc-based cape (and the chances seem to be going up), you have a threat of widespread wind damage and some tornadoes for sure. The 2nd event will have more instability and reduced shear but still more than enough, and a more "classic" supercell mode would be favored with a legit TOR threat. There are still uncertainties (how much instability for round 1? how much coverage of storms for round 2?), but I think that a 10% TOR threat (and an ENH risk extended north into our area) would be justified in the updated day 2.

Among the CAMs, the NAM nest is by far the best in terms of reflectivity, although its updraft helicity signals are modest. The other CAMs overall aren't as good. But the environment still looks like questionable instability but fantastic low level shear, so we're still very much in the game.

The progged hodographs ahead of that line are remarkable. If we get any heating to boost sfc-based cape, it will be a fascinating day around here.

Two rounds of potential here on the NAM nest: mid-morning and then mid-afternoon. The morning has better wind fields but limited heating; the afternoon will have better heating but weaker wind fields. Regardless, both have healthy potential.

Any tornado potential would be confined to the early morning hours Monday (and dependent upon whether we can get some sfc-based instability), but the NAM is definitely leaving the door open for a line of storms on the front in the afternoon with its timing. The best low-level wind fields are long gone by then, but some wind/hail potential would exist if it's correct.

Yes, those early morning wind speeds Monday will be incredible, and that's probably our best shot at SVR. The warm air will be racing north, and there may be a window in the early hours during which the amazing wind fields are overhead and we get a little bit of sfc-based instability. Ultimately, we probably won't have sfc-based convection, but if we do, watch out! But even with the front slowing down a lot, I'm not too excited about SVR potential during the afternoon (as of now). The strongest wind fields and best moisture will quickly shift to our northeast Monday morning, and we're going to end up in the dry slot with strongly veered low-level flow. The downscoping will likely send us into the low 80s, but we're going to dry out a lot in the low levels. Maybe we get a strongly-forced low top line with some wind later in the day, but I don't see more than that as of now, although there is still time for changes.

Looks like a box will be coming soon for DC and points east and northeast. Two lines intensifying to our west now, with SPC mesoanalysis showing 500+ sfc-based cape in the area where the watch is being considered. That's probably enough instability, given the strong wind fields and fast storm motion, to get some impressive gusts.

Not a bad call by LWX. Good reflectivity persists in several CAMS as the storms make it western VA, and soundings do show some modest potential for momentum transport to the ground. Still think that that most of us (except for the western and southwestern areas) have a shot at strong midday gusts in a line along the front followed by strong post-frontal gusts too.

I have to say that I'm surprised to see the microburst in Bethesda. It seemed like a setup in which the instability was elevated which would have led to minimal wind threat but a decent hail threat with the good lapse rates (which materialized). Progs showed much more most unstable cape than sfc cape, but I guess that the line was able to find just enough sfc-based instability in that area.

Yeah, that's our best shot, although the warm front is going to have a tough time getting here no matter what. I'm still not giving up on tomorrow, although solutions showing instability ahead of the front are not the majority. Seems like an early morning dying line hurts our chances.