high risk

You left out the next panel in which it basically wipes out that line as it moves into the metro area..... That said, the HRRR has the same feature, and it keeps it going further east, but the HRRR is warmer in the low levels and keeps it as rain for the metro area.

same here. would have been even more interesting with more sfc heating....

That Mt Holly discussion works very well for most of our area too. Interestingly, progged parameters for early this afternoon have improved, but overall, the CAM simulated reflectivity forecasts for our area have gotten worse. 12z NAM nest stops the bleeding and actually has a nice convective feature and a secondary low center - we'll see if it has the right idea.....

several morning CAMs do show a broken line moving through parts of the area during early Monday afternoon, with a few hours of heating prior to arrival. If that plays out, with several hundred J/kg of CAPE, there is certainly some severe potential.

I've been looking this evening at the Monday threat, and while I'm not too optimistic at our SVR chances, I can't argue with the MRGL. The warm front looks to move through the area by mid-morning taking the steady rain with it. There is a period late Monday morning when the progged hodographs should be outstanding, and several CAMs have a more scattered, somewhat cellular nature to the precip, but instability just isn't there in the CAMs right now. By early afternoon, it *does* appear that we'll get several hundred J/KG of sfc-based CAPE as the dry slot moves overhead and much of the area warms into the mid 60s. Unfortunately, the low-level winds are progged to veer by then, and the hodographs don't look as good. That said, there may be a broken line of convection on the cold front (High-res Window ARW2 really shows this), so some severe threat, especially in the form of wind gusts, will exist if we can achieve the higher (500?) CAPE values. The faster that the warm sfc air overspreads the area Monday, the better the chance of severe. Ultimately, the instability and best low-level shear likely won't overlap (keeping the tornado threat fairly low), but with very strong winds just above the surface, there will be an opportunity for at least a few severe gusts if we can heat up by early afternoon.

very impressive winds here in southern Howard County just after 7pm

I'm guessing wants to see some actual obs/reports before deciding whether to go with a box..... I don't blame them.

With the 1630 upgrade to SLGT, it's time to move discussion of the convective line over to the severe thread.

There is zero doubt that a convective line will move through the region later today. I've been skeptical about the potential for winds to mix down, but given the reports coming out of Ohio, I guess I can't argue with the SLGT.

There is no argument that there will be a strongline of convection later Sunday moving across the area - the radar will look nice. My questions are whether it will have lightning and whether it can produce strong wind gusts. The forecast soundings just don't have enough instability for lightning - stronger wind gusts are a better possibility, although they should stay below severe limits. if instability is greater than progged, some lightning and gusts near the severe threshold would be on the table.

CAMs are very emphatic about a forced line of convection sweeping across the area later Sunday. Mixing down some strong winds to the surface and/or getting some lightning are both on the table although not particularly likely due to very weak instability.

Sunday looks like a really rotten day - still not clear whether we'll have periods of rain or just some occasional drizzle, but low clouds with temps stuck in the 40s seems fairly likely.

getting some huge drops that sound like small hail when hitting the ground with the southern Howard County cell

I do remember that event - another classic low cape, high shear fall event here, although this one had dew points into the low 70s. I don't think that there was much precip out ahead of the line, but it was definitely cloudy. The reports map looks way better than the event was - I remember being very surprised by the upgrade to MDT and very unimpressed by the line. Most of the reports in our area were of single trees being knocked down.

yeah, the shear profiles for later Tuesday have so much potential, but over the years, I've seen a ton of great fall setups fail here due to terrible lapse rates and instability. Any system at this time of year that is strong enough to have great accompanying wind fields usually generates a lot of cloud cover and showers well out ahead of the front.

I can actually say that I saw the 2001 tornado as it moved through Laurel. No one had cell phone cameras back then, so I have no pictures, but my view was very similar to this one: I'm definitely intrigued by the Tuesday potential, although fall events here are so tough to pull off due to limited instability.

He assisted at the cleanup at the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute which was heavily damaged and suffered a heart attack while driving home that evening. Who knows if he would have suffered the cardiac episode had he not been at the scene.....

I'd love to see what the models actually look like today, as WPC has some big totals for our area in the next 24 hours and a SLGT risk for flash flooding overnight.

yeah, CAMs have a good signal for storms later this afternoon, mainly for DC and points south. As SPC notes, instability is weak, but shear is fairly good, and the forecast soundings show some good DCAPE, so I guess I agree that some gusty winds are possible.

Hello, SPC? Hello? Time to get that box issued.

I think you're in as good of a location as any. I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued). The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat.

it really is, although kmlwx and I are not quite in lock step today.....

I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat. There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me. We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

Many things to like about Thursday afternoon, but I'd sure like to see some stronger 10m wind speeds. There will be mesos for sure, but we need some better speeds at the sfc to really get a legit TOR event.

I don't really understand why the line was so meh. The 00z IAD sounding isn't bad. Maybe the CAPE is a bit tall and skinny, and deep layer shear is marginal, but I would have expected an organized line like that to have a lot more wind.