osfan24

100:1 ratios!!! Finally get our HECS!

Bullseye over the area. Just needs some serious JUICE.

Chuck on that good stuff today after the disappointing snow.

I guess it is ok. Maybe 1-2 wouldn't be something I think of as a solid hit but maybe that is me. Maybe it can juice up some. The fact it gets in during nighttime is very helpful.

Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line. But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing. I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid.

You got a different map than me?

I think some of it is psychological. There was so much hype about this perfect period coming up. People saying it had the same look as February 2010, etc. I am not saying I or others expected a repeat, but I think we all thought we would be tracking non-stop and there would be some chances at a HECS. That's just all vanished, and given it is basically looking out to the end of February on the models, that is grim. Also, I thought bobchill had a great point about how a winter can have a personality, and this one has been one of missed opportunities and things really never just quite lining up for us. Is that something that is suddenly going to change? Maybe! But probably not, lol.

Sky looks like some of the "post significant snowstorm skies" I remember from yesteryear. Alas.

Woah. That's impressive.

I think delay was the right call to see if the rates overtook the roads. They didn't, so off to school they go. It was supposed to snow for 4 plus hours. It actually snowed for maybe 2 lol. So it goes. Let's see if we can luck into one big storm before the flowers bloom.

Best rates of the day by far. Probably coming down an inch an hour right now. Decent flakes, too. Where was this all morning? Starting to see sidewalks and streets getting slushy and trying to cave.

Yeah, I never bought those runs. I did think last night that this thing was likely going to either completely bust or surprise to the upside, with the most likely scenario being it busting. Had to avoid dry slot. Had to have rates. Had to be cold enough. Just too many things had to line up.

Yeah it did kinda nail that. I wonder what kind of rates it advertised. Between the dry slot and the rates not being anywhere near what HRRR threw out there, that was all she wrote for this one. I thought this had some 2011 vibes but the rates were in completely different worlds and those rates also lasted far longer. I think I got about 20 minutes of moderate snow lol.

It tries but it never really does. Those HRRR advertised rates were hilarious.

Oh man, that band kinda weakened and accelerated as it got to me. I think an inch is going to be a tall task now. Appropriate for this winter.

That's me, basically! Waffling between light and moderate snow now.

Light snow here now. Looks like that band has made it to my doorstep. Let's see if it is legit or not.

Yeah, I am getting very light snow here, if you can call it that.

I really hate this winter with a passion. So much hype. Just a bunch of teases. I don't think it would have been an epic winter to this point, but it would have been a really good one if some of these perfect track storms would have been snow. Sitting here waiting on the dryslot to fill in while I can see the back edge flying east. Looks like I am going to get one little band out of this for 45 minutes to an hour and that's it. Dumbest hobby ever.

I thought some of the models showed that possibility. We just chose to hope it was wrong, lol. But yeah, I know the HRRR showed by 7 am it was snowing basically all the way to the bay, which means it was probably snowing where I am well before that. And I am still waiting for it to start. Punting 1/3 of the time it was supposed to snow is not great, lol.

Euro probably going to win this one. RAP and HRRR wayyyy too bullish, not that this is some big surprise, and GFS was probably a bit too bullish as well. The northern tier should be able to grab a few inches out of this, however, which lines up pretty well with the king.

Dry slot just won't fill in. Probably going to be an hour later on the onset of snow than it should have been. Can't afford to punt an hour of snow when it's only going to snow for 3-4 hours. Guessing I end up with a dusting to an inch. Nice band out by Frederick and Leesburg.

It better snow like crazy once the dryslot gets out of here or this is going to bust low. I think the Euro may have been right.

Gonna channel my inner Ji and say the only time it has that much impact is when it isn’t good.

Well, this is depressing. Guess our HECS chances this year are just about cancelled.