osfan24

Is this really that encouraging for most, though? 3-4 inches on these 10:1 maps is likely to have almost zero snow depth given temps. We need this to be real thumpy.

The 6z runs would not have been so bad had it not been for what happened at 0z that got everyone encouraged again. What a rug pull. Was the 0z a blip or 6z?

Rough start this morning after last night's great runs. GFS is much faster and weaker. Also looks a tad warmer as well.

Business is picking up in here, I see. I wish we could just skip ahead to January 20 and let it play out.

Woof, that's basically a non-event for the majority of the forum outside of PSU land and west. Still time but this is kinda trending where most of us thought it probably would.

It's whatever. Looks like two cutters set the table and then it is game on for the second half of the month.

Icon is definitely a bit worse for some, for the little it matters.

Looks like GFS really cut back on precip after the overnight monster run. Might have to do with the shift to a slightly colder/less amped solution. Interesting to see how the storm has sped up so much in time. I feel like most of the time, our storms usually move back a bit in time, not up.

Alright, let's find a way to slow this thing down and stall it and bomb right over us to get a KU.

Hate the carpenter bees. We moved into our new house a few years ago and they had put so many holes in our wood fence. I've spend the past couple of years trying to eradicate them and fill in the holes. People that lived here before us did like zero maintenance on anything.

Oh yeah, I am not worried about that run. It was a perfectly fine run that keeps everyone right in the game. I do agree it looks like a pretty classic Mid-Atlantic MECS to HECS storm track. Just needed to gain a bit more lattitude. One thing I'd like to see to pump up the totals more into HECS range is some WAA snow running through the region before we get into the CCB.

Was not saying this is the final solution but that is definitely suppressed. I don't even think the heavy snow bands reach 95 unless the GFS is just not correctly showing how expansive precip would be on the northwest side.

Looks suppressed to me.

I am greedy. Let's start bumping those totals up a little.

Doesn't matter at this point, but a 986 there isn't likely to die out quickly.

It is depressing looking at this. So close, yet so far.

I don't get the GEFS love. It spent all of last winter following the op. Seems like it will do the same this winter.

Yeah, low is already way too far northwest.

I don't know if it is the metro or what. Obviously, it's probably even worse now than when I went there since the school and especially surrounding area has become far more built up than it was in the early and mid 2000's. But you would think with some of the green space there that it would help mitigate some of it.

That makes more sense for Feb 2006. College Park clearly in the 8-12 and I am guessing it was much closer to 8 and possibly even a localized amount under 8. I am not sure why, but College Park always seemed to run warmer than surrounding areas. Do remember the February 2003 crushjob very well. That one hit us good down there, though again, not as hard as I got hit at home.

February of 2014 forever pains me. Got crushed overnight with like 10-12 inches of snow and then it was just a little too warm during the day and I had drizzle and a ton of melting. There was like four inches left on the deck by the end of it. I think it did eventually get colder late in the afternoon and we got some heavy graupel that turned back to snow for a short period. Meanwhile, it snowed pretty steadily all day back up your way and really dumped on you. I was in college at UMCP for the February 2006 storm and do not remember that one at all. I cannot imagine we got over a foot of snow down there and I don't remember it.

I remember that well. The ensembles were worthless last year and oddly followed the op. Hopefully, that's not the case this year. Definitely some big hit potential with this one but could be heartbreak as well.

Oh baby. So close to something even bigger.

Interesting that the January 10 system tries for a little front-end something. Doesn't happen but I just kinda wrote everything off after January 6/7. Maybe that will bear watching at some point.

985 off of OC and hardly snowing, lol. Another way to fail I guess. At least it is a step in the right direction.