jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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I’d just focus on out to day 9 right now. That’s when guidance is showing a potential TC. And it’s not in clown range. We need high confidence that a strong tropical cyclone will develop in the western Caribbean first. Everything else is for entertainment purposes at this point.
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Looks like a worst case scenario unfolding for Cancún Mexico.
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The teleconnections are amped for our region leading up to the Monday disturbance. I would hedge accordingly...12z GFS correcting but still seems far behind in terms of what the tele’s are advertising. We have a legitimate tropical disturbance in the West Caribbean also, and it wouldn’t take much more digging to get that player directly involved... Tropics meet October Continental Polar air mass? Yes please.
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This low level swirl East of the Del Marva the remnants of Sally...? Might ruin our chances of nice weather today... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Two different opportunities. First with better UL synoptic setup, second with better tropical connection. Sharp UL troughs over the N Gulf or SE Coast can often spawn TC’s/STC’s this time of the yr, and w/o much guidance support at short leads... So I’m still focused on the day 5 potential...
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Kinda surprised no one has dropped the “Harvey” analog yet.. I haven’t looked into it but I believe Harvey also occurred during a significant -NAO, which seems we will likely have this time as well.
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2020-bias. Murphy’s law reigns
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Key to any close approach to eastern New England is 1)stronger than modeled WAR pushes Ted southwest of Bermuda and 2)Development of a +3SD -NAO block....over North Atlantic. Lacking both at the moment, but greater issue is with point 1) presently....
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Most rain I’ve had in weeks. Guessing close to but less than 0.2”. Yes, it’s been THAT dry.
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No. Latitude. It became extra tropical and phased right around NYC metro, hence also began tracking due north...That’s also why the wind impact broadened for our sub forum despite it tracking much further west.
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Not weird... The pressure gradient was much more representative of a tropical system at that latitude.
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NYC looks like a prime spot for tornado threat and high wind threat...Staten Island and Brooklyn are likely greatest risk being exposed to the southeast fetch off the open water... That recent 90 mph gust in Virginia was also reported in the same sector that’s likely to effect NYC area if extrapolate current trajectory...
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Tropical feeling out there today is legit. Especially with the breeze. Yep a TS is incoming.
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The euro initialized with Isaias at 1000 mb 12z Friday. It has him down to 995 mb by 12z Saturday. Isaia’s current min surface pressure is 991 mb. No model, including the 12z Euro has this storm weakening between now and tomorrow. So you take this piece of guidance and you toss....far....- 1,530 replies
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Seasons in seasons. This looks much more like early fall, than mid summer. Tenor of season has been above normal heights over the western Atlantic, and guidance having —in general—to correct higher with time. I don’t see how this misses the Carolina’s...he’s not gaining much of an easterly component before OBX...not this year... NHC’s cone is further east than both the EPS and GEFS. Risk to me seems much greater that this runs well inland than ots...
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As a cat 1, with a background flow of ~ 30 mph it would translate to impacts more similar to a high end cat 2 in the rear right quadrant.
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Full moon on the 3rd.. Surge will likely be a significant impact in the right front quadrant...*if* the storm track is ~perpendicular to coast upon landfall. Will be critical to determine when (exactly) the velocity (track) gains a more easterly component.
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Looks like a TS...
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SST’s very marginal true, but I do believe the exact track wrt to the NHC’s latest forecast cone will have an outsized impact on intensity, especially given how fast he will be moving...The southern track would result in gradual weakening, likely still a hurricane, whereas the northern track could see this weaken to a cirrus swirl...before closest approach to the islands...
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Summer 2020 Banter and random observations
jbenedet replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Another nighttime low >/= 70, and another night with short term guidance busting low. Starting to think I should regularly use an N+5 correction for this.... -
I would have. I feel like I brought LI climo with me.
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When I moved here in 2015, the prevailing wisdom was “pfft, you don’t need AC, this is NH...” Every year I have needed AC, and the need for it has been increasing...I think the much higher low temps is also a persistence phenomenon, going back years...The +AN has been most apparent in the morning, even outside of seasonably warm patterns...
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Well about 72 hrs out from my post. NHC already assigned 10% chance to this wave...Still think this wave will be most interesting to watch this week.
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York Beach Maine it is.
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Looks like development of next threat is about ~84 hrs out. At least that’s what GEFS/GFS is hinting at. Tropical wave passing through Florida strait/over southern Florida and into Gulf of Mexico—general track towards western Gulf coast.
