jbenedet

Perhaps a case of correlation is not causation; but the 18th is starting to look a lot more like a storm overlaid with the MJO phase 6 in mid January. It was what I cautioned with anyway... Just sayin’ Still time to change. But feeling more confident that this not a winter storm for the bulk of us—me included.

MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance. Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together... To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient. NAO end up more positive? Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this...

Coastal NNE. CNE is interior MA; that’s my take anyway

18th has to be watched very closely. I feel like CNE and NNE in great spots for this. The big question is the rest of us...

I think Wed is going to end up quite warm for most. Probably another beautiful day —50 in PSM? I can see that ... Thursday, well AN before the CF as well—40’s...Thursday looks like a NNE resorts, and away from the coast in ME type deal for snow lovers.

Fun times, yes, in Lewiston ME. I can buy that.

I’d be pretty surprised if that happens at this point, but kinda moot anyway, bc as you said we have the close proximity of the front to our west right now. May make a difference in sensible weather for only an hr or two, at worst.

Good thing I’m not at DAW. My climo more like an avg of DAW and PSM. It’s beautiful imby

Fold.

Seems like teleconnections are broadly shifting from terrible to mediocre. Have to strongly favor in and up until we get closer to the 20th and reassess...

More like a back window. Areas north of it are still above normal... Not going to make it much further south than that either...

64/49 at PSM and that was as of 11:55 am. Nuts.

PSM going into the low 60’s today it seems...60 will be easy...

12z NAM says no back door, keep the screen door for the chickens.

Jeans and t-shirt weather. Vis Satellite shows sun breaking out for most over the next hour; most will be up into the 50’s when that occurs. short term guidance continues to warm. PSM making a run for 60 today.

44/38. big melt well underway.

That would smash records. PSM on south has very little to no snow cover already. That area is primed to maximize that window. Timing wrt fropa is good as well.

Record highs Saturday and Sunday? Looks like near 30F departures for a chunk of the sub forum.

Yea. I think this is one of those cases where the tuck really underperforms vs climo. We warm up to near 60 before the wedge makes its strongest push Sunday am. If we had cold at onset of developing wedge, I’d be a much bigger believer on being on the wrong side of the gradient for the duration. I’m thinking the 32F isotherm ends up from Portland to Lake Winne, and has staying power there. Maybe we hit 40ish Sunday morning but warm back up to mid 50’s as surface hp booted East and before fropa.

Jeeze, trending toward crushing ice storm in Chicago and Detroit...

Sell the big wedge on the GFS. GFS did something similar last “tuck event” (Jan 4/5), while mesos never bought in. Similar story to last big ice event that struggled hugely to get 32F isotherm south of ORH. And this setup is a lot warmer still...Fade climo with ++AO, much less southward movement of cold; eastward trajectory predominates.

Selling that up to Lake Winne. Going against climo here but that -PNA with shortwave near the Gulf of Mexico is going to do some serious mid level ridge pumping over our heads...

Heh, I can see that—Maybe western CT, western MA?