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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Seeing is believing ?
  2. jbenedet
    PSM hit 40 this afternoon. -7 for a polar airmASS
  3. jbenedet
    Thanksgiving looks beautiful in SNE. What a beaut.
  4. jbenedet
    Turkey Day turning into DSD in SE locations. Looks nice actually, mid 50's for SNE.
  5. jbenedet
    This map makes a lot more sense. Still too aggressive with the cold in the east
  6. jbenedet
    Yea that’s the guidance consensus. I think it’s about 6-10 hours faster to scour in eastern sections. Surface Winds turn southeasterly pretty damn early and water still in low 50’s. Think it’s most likely that interior CNE follow your timing.
  7. jbenedet
    CPC drunk with this map. The whole thing should be shifted some 750 miles west With regard to SNE, there is one day BN on the 6z GEFS through next weekend, and that’s tomorrow. Tuesday will start cold but end normal to slightly AN for most.
  8. jbenedet
    @ORH_wxmanwas tracking 2 potential snowstorms during this window The GEEFSE just shit on his head
  9. jbenedet
    That’s a great find. Well done.
  10. jbenedet
    Now send some pictures of geese and the pope.
  11. jbenedet
    Say the same thing over and over and over. It wasn’t funny 3 years ago.
  12. jbenedet
    Lol. A day of 30’s in late November. You showed him, alright!
  13. jbenedet
    Another day on the motorcycle. A break next week and then she’s back out the week after. Noice.
  14. jbenedet
    That 6z GFS run is what you get with an sig -NAO. And the MJO phase 8/1 None of it fits big picture. MJO phase 1/2, will permit UL ridging in the east. And the forecasted NAO is strongly positive before this system arrives, the Canadian high in the east will be exiting stage right instead of anchored Rope-a-dope run.
  15. jbenedet
    yea. I took my motorcycle into work this morning. Sweet deal. It's still, any semblance of AN in the atmosphere and it's lift off. Conversely, it takes the stars to align for us to get sig BN. Hedge accordingly.
  16. jbenedet
    Tomorrow looks beautiful - low 60's. The cold behind the front looks like it takes us back to Normal. Saturday maybe very slightly BN, and Sunday back above.
  17. jbenedet
    yea. We're headed to phase 8 ->1. That cold is legit and is dumping into Central plains, but I believe it's going to moderate a lot as it heads east at our latitude.
  18. jbenedet
    The subsequent cold shots (after turkey day) are also going to dampen out as they dump into the plains and then moderate as they head east to our region. Normal at worst.
  19. jbenedet
    Big GL Cutter. We knew. Warm sector easily up to Winne. +NAO with deepest surface cold over the upper midwest. Nothing stopping a bend back into central ontario
  20. jbenedet
    Not an STC? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-01-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  21. jbenedet
    Weird seeing lemons and cherries for theoretical points of interest and nothing for where the observations continue to be most indicative of tropical development in the north central GOM. I get the guidance has been pessimistic on development of this feature since it’s inception, but that’s also why it’s just “guidance”.
  22. jbenedet
    Just realized we’ve had a -NAO regime since 9/10! And it looks like this streak breaks right around —you guessed it—December 1st!
  23. jbenedet
    Too early for snow but not too late for something Tropical. Yea there’s nothing “tropical” about the weather in Texas right now, but that’s not where the storm is developing. The area of interest is 300 miles south in the Bay of Campeche.
  24. jbenedet
    Cursory look at vis satellite—looks like a TD in the Bay of Campeche at sunrise this morning.
  25. jbenedet
    I dunno…Experience is the forecasted teles can have large error bars (hidden) at inflection points. I believe this is one. The MJO is transitioning from 7 to 8 to (likely) 1 over this time frame, and there’s been a lot of potential energy in an ENSO that hasn’t flexed in CONUS weather patterns (yet). I believe the latter is about to show up with a bang. Strongly hedge in favor of amped and active.
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